Nov. 30, 2005

The Bottom Line - Week 12
By Chris Kelly

Cal Poly rode the legs of their sensational freshman running back James Noble, and a terrific defensive effort to knock off Montana 35-21 in a first round playoff game in Missoula, Montana. Noble picked up where he left off last week with five touchdowns by adding another four this week along with 188 yards rushing on a career high 41 carries. For Noble it started early as he scored the game first touchdown on a 3-yard run, and also closed out the scoring on a 35-yard jaunt. In between he added scores of four and five yards respectively.

In terms of defense the Montana offense was limited to just 261 yards of offense. The biggest difference was the production of Grizzly running back Lex Hilliard who was held to 90 yards on the ground. The Mustangs also added an interception by Safety Kenny Chicoine, and a fumble recovery by Randy Samuel. Kyle Shotwell led the defense again with 11 tackles. Buck Buchanan candidate Chris Gocong added three sacks as the Mustangs tallied six sacks on the day.

CK's Take: Talk about getting a lot accomplished in one game. Cal Poly not only won for the first time in 11 tries against Montana, but was able to pick up the school's first ever playoff win. The proverbial monkey is now off the Mustangs back, and in an impressive way. About three weeks ago Tony Kays, UC Davis' standout receiver, was my selection for GWFC offense player of the year. The way Noble has played over the past few weeks he's certainly made a case that he deserves that award. Let me just take a step back and remind everyone that this kid is a freshman. He's taken an offense that lost their starting quarterback, put them on their back, and now has them in the second round of the I-AA playoffs. Freshman.

But a big reason Cal Poly is here is the play of their defense. I felt that the biggest difference this week would be Cal Poly adjustments which would contain Lex Hillard. That held true as the Griz star back was held to 143 yards less than the first times these teams met. With Hilliard held in check Cole Bergquist could not muster enough offense through the air against the Mustangs swarming defense. As for Chris Gocong what else can I say? The guy just continues to put up huge numbers. I recently turned in my vote for the Buck Buchanan award, and put his name in the top spot. He's certainly making that vote look even better as he continues to add to another monster year.

Now the `Stangs travel to San Marcos for their second round battle against Texas State. More on that game later...

UC Davis 24 Northern Colorado 14
Quick Hits: The Aggies played a strong game on both sides of the ball which secured a share of the Great West Football Conference title, as well as extended their streak to 36 seasons on consecutive winning season. Jon Grant rebounded with 279 yard passing and two touchdowns passes (Daniel Fells, Blaise Smith) while the defense was back up to its normal tricks. The stout run D returned allowing the Bears just 33 yards on 31 carries. I suppose there was some justice that an injury plagued season which limited pre-season all American tight end Daniel Fells playing time all season ended with a touchdown catch. Tony Kays 129 yards added to his already record breaking season. The Bears Andre Wilson was able to gain 44 yards which put him over the 1000 yard mark on the year. Its unfortunate a high ankle sprain derailed Wilson about three weeks ago. The injury forced him to miss time and play hurt slowing what was going to be a huge season. The Bears (4-7) now move on to the Big Sky conference, while the Aggies end the season at 6-5.

Week 12 Games
Only one game on the schedule this week as Cal Poly continues its playoff run in a second round matchup in Texas. Last week's 2-0 record run the season total to 36-12 (.750)

Game of the Week
#10 Cal Poly @ #4 Texas State
Cal Poly and Texas State meet for this weekend in San Marcos, Texas at Jim Wacker Field, which marks the site of one of four I-AA playoff quarterfinal games. Both teams are making their first appearance in the playoffs, and are meeting for just the second time. The first meeting was last season when the Mustangs got the better of the Bobcats 38-21. The winner will be one game away from the I-AA national championship.

Mustangs offense vs. Texas State defense
The Bobcats have done a nice job all season against the specialty of the Mustangs offense, the run. Texas State is 41st nationally against the run allowing 142 yards per game. Last week, however, they were run all over by Georgia Southern allowing 364 yards on the ground. Now, Georgia Southern runs a triple option and leads the nation in rushing so some of the Eagles success could have been expected. However, the way Cal Poly's offensive line has been getting off the ball, along with the running of James Noble has to be a promising sign. This is especially magnified considering that the Mustangs will run the option at this Bobcat defense 30-40% of the game this weekend. Cal Poly has one priority this weekend and that is to run the ball. Whether it is quarterback Matt Brennan or super back James Noble the Mustangs want to limit that amount of time Brennan has to throw to less than 20. Conversely, Texas State has to do what no team since UC Davis has been able to do - slow the run. But even then the Mustangs were without Noble. The Bobcats will bring everyone up to the line and really focus on controlling Noble and this option offense. By doing so the Bobcats want to force the pressure to Brennan to win this game, and hope that standouts Fred Evans and Travis Upshaw along the line can make life uncomfortable for him. Each game the Mustangs freshman quarterback gains experience and winning in Montana last week was a major confidence boost. But still, Brennan is young and if the run is taken away he will make some mistakes. This is the situation the Bobcats have to force. If Brennan throws the ball on his terms in 2nd or 3rd down and short he'll be efficient enough to lead this offense to points all afternoon. But if Brennan is consistently in a long distance situation and having to throw to win this game, the Mustangs offense will be in trouble. But the big question is can the Bobcats contain the run? As teams have been forced to commit everything to the run, the Mustangs wideouts have seen primarily man coverage on the outside, which is a major advantage to Cal Poly top three wideouts who stand 6'6, 6'2, and 6'0 respectively. Ramses Barden (9 td's, 16.5 per catch) the third freshman standout on this offense had another strong game last week as he caught three passes for 86 yards and a score. He is a mismatch against any opposing corner, and the guy the Mustangs will look to take 3-4 shots with downfield. Barden's ability to out jump corners has already cost a few teams this season. A solid matchup this week should be when Barden is defended by first team all-slc cornerback Walter Musgrove (5'9) who is fifth on the team in tackles, and also has six passes defended. Even this battle is secondary to slowing the run, which is the key to the game. Stop the run and Texas State wins going away, but that is easier said than done.

Bobcats offense vs. Cal Poly defense
Texas State showed just how dangerous its offense can be to the nation last weekend when the Bobcats steam-rolled Georgia Southern over the last quarter and a half of last weekend's playoff game. The fifty points is exactly the type of output this group is capable of especially considering they average nearly 39 points (6th nationally) and 435 yards (11th nationally) a game. Barrack Nealy, the Bobcats three year starter at quarterback, is the biggest reason this offense is so explosive. He is the glue that holds this group together which I'll speak to a little later in the preview. But he's certainly not without weapons. The Bobcats have four running backs over 400 yards rushing who have combined for a staggering 25 touchdowns. There are a number of guys that will tote the rock, even though Nealy is the biggest threat with his legs. The offensive line is a sturdy group which helps this unit go as illustrated by the fact they've allowed just 10 sacks this season. As much as the lack of sacks is a testament to the offensive line, it also points to the `escapability' of Nealy. Cal Poly's defense knows their biggest goal will be to contain Nealy this weekend, which makes for an interesting matchup between a solid offensive line and a defense that leads the nation in sacks. That offensive line, led by first team southland selections Thomas Keresztury and Luke Horder, will be challenged by a fierce Mustang defensive line. The Mustangs, in fact, come into play with an astounding 67 sacks (5.17 per game) led by the best defensive lineman in the nation, Chris Gocong. Gocong comes into play with 22 sacks following a season where he had 19. Maybe most impressive is the fact that as a defensive lineman he is second on the team in tackles, and leads the nation in tackles for loss at 27.5. He will be a major problem for the Bobcat offensive line, and must be accounted for all afternoon. The two blockers that Gocong takes away on each play has allowed fellow defensive lineman Matt Cachere (11.5 sacks) and Chris White (9.5 sacks) to flourish. These three along with Kyle Shotwell, who ranks 6th nationally in total tackles, are a big piece of a formidable front seven. On the outside the Bobcats are led by a quartet of receivers who have at least 300 yards receiving, and have combined for 15 touchdowns. The biggest name among the group is Markee White, who much like Ramses Barden on the other side, present matchup problems for the Mustang secondary. White is a 6'7 senior who has 657 yards receiving and four scores on the year. He's really a possession type receiver, so speed is not the issue, but his size presents a potential problem. In fact he's a prospect the NFL is currently taking a look at for the upcoming draft. Look for cornerback Courtney Brown to spend most of the afternoon following White. It's no doubt that Brown can cover White, but it's the deep jump balls that can become concerning. Slow the run, and contain the White from the big play are important, but keeping Nealy from breaking too many big plays will win this game.

Key matchup: Bobcat front six vs. Cal Poly offensive line. As good as Cal Poly's defense is this Bobcat offense will put some points on the board. Thus it's up to Cal Poly to make sure they can answer all afternoon long. An important matchup to watch on Saturday afternoon will be the performance of an imposing Bobcat defensive front against a very talented Mustangs offensive line. Texas State's defensive line has done a pretty good job against the run all season, save last Saturday. Then again Georgia Southern is a whole different animal when it comes to defending the run. The Bobcats front six (they run a base 4-2-5 defense) is led by a pair of linebackers in Jeremy Castillo (73 tackles, 9.5 for loss) and first team all-slc selection David Simmons, who have both had strong seasons. Along the line, SLC defensive player of the year Fred Evans and nose tackle Travis Upshaw have combined for over 20 tackles for loss, and weigh in well over 300 lbs. Evans is an absolute beast standing at 6'5 350 lbs, and is headed to the Hula Bowl. This front six is an extremely big and physical group who will provide a sizable challenge against smaller Mustang offensive line. The lineman in charge of paving the way for this strong running game are Josh Mayfield, Beau Finato, Stephen Field, Julia Tuua, and Brett Guald. They only average 272 pounds across the line, but that shouldn't be a concern to anyone. This group has done a tremendous job against both bigger/physical and small/quick defenses all season long. They've only allowed their quarterback to be sacked just 14 times this season. Despite what some might consider an undersized group, this unit also does a great job getting pads on the second level of defenders which is another reason the Mustangs run the ball so well. I haven't mentioned this offensive line all season because they've done such a stellar job. The winner of this battle will have a major say in the outcome.

X-Factor: Barrick Nealy, QB, Texas State. Of all the X-factors all season in this game of the week section Barrack Nealy is probably the most dangerous. Nealy, who has already been selected to play in the Hula Bowl, put on one of the best performances in I-AA all year last weekend on national TV. With his team trailing by 19 points late in the third quarter he led the Bobcats to 35 unanswered points to cap an amazing comeback. Here's his stat line, which is flat out sick: 12 carries, 126 yards, 1 td, 23-32 for 400 yards, 4 td's - 526 total yards. According to NFLDraftScout.com analyst Josh Buchanan, Nealy, the Southland conference player of the year is currently projected as a 6th-7th round draft selection in this April NFL draft. Mel Kuiper is even fonder of the signal caller from San Marcos, as he rates him the 5th best quarterback in the draft. As the blazing hot Nealy enters plays this weekend, it's now the job of Cal Poly to find a way to slow the senior leader. What makes it challenging is his elusiveness, and ability to run the ball. Nealy is actually 51st in the nation in rushing, and leads his team with over 900 yards. In fact Nealy is averaging an astounding 7.5 yards per carry. Only two other players in the top 100 rushing average over 7 yards per carry, and one of them is Cal Poly's James Noble. This week it was announced the he finished 5th in voting for the Walter Payton award. The Bobcats star has proven he can pass with the best of them, but what will determine just how big of a game Nealy has will be up to the Mustangs and their ability to keep Nealy from making huge plays with his legs. This quarterback has proven he can put the team on his back in any situation, so the Mustangs have to be a disciplined team this weekend and keep Nealy from going off.

The Roundtable says:

Kent Schmidt:< Picking this game is rather difficult for me as Cal Poly has shown much resilience on the season and has won several games on the road. Texas State on the other hand has won every home game that they have played this season. Something tells me the Mustangs will hand the Bobcats their first home loss in a very close contest. I will take Cal Poly by a touchdown.

Jeff Kolpack: Hats off to the Mustangs for winning at Montana. If you can win there, you can win anywhere. Cal Poly 25, Texas State 21.

Chris Solari: Cal Poly at Texas State: No one the Mustangs have faced this year is as dangerous a multiple threat as Barrick Nealy. As Nealy showed against South Dakota State, then again last week against Georgia Southern, he's too great a weapon to contain. A great run for Cal Poly ends against the eventual national champ. Texas State 42, Cal Poly 21

Mike Mirer: I love this match-up for Cal Poly. Texas State's defense had a lot of trouble with Georgia Southern's version of the option last week, and didn't do that well against it in the Nicholls State game earlier this year. So I think the Mustangs can score enough to points to win. Nealy's a great talent, but I expect Cal Poly's defense to give him some trouble the way it gives everyone trouble. And that should be just enough. On to New Hampshire for the Mustangs. Cal Poly 28, Texas State 27

The Bottom Line: It seems each week this year has provided an excellent matchup for the Mustangs, as their schedule never let up. Now they face one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in all of I-AA, and will do so in front of what will be a geared up crowd in San Marcos. Texas State has an explosive offense and is undefeated at home this year, which includes a playoff win for the ages last weekend. One thing we know about Cal Poly is they match up well against this Bobcat group. Two weeks ago they faced the guy I consider the best quarterback in I-AA in Erik Meyer. Even though Nealy is slightly more elusive, the Mustangs showed they can contain a player of Nealy's caliber enough to a win the game. Just last week they won in the most difficult place to play in all of I-AA, so 16k+ plus on the road this weekend shouldn't be intimidating. And this Mustangs group runs the option efficiently, an offense the Bobcats have had trouble stopping this season. Still I have to wonder have the Mustangs run out of bullets? I mean look at the list of teams they've beaten in `05: Montana State, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington, and Montana. They've achieved so much this season, and having to win three pressure packed games just to get in the playoffs, followed by a trip by a trip to Montana takes a lot out of a team. It makes me think twice about this pick especially as they hit the road to face a Texas State team that almost seems destined for something big following last week's result. That said, this Mustang team is playing its best football now, and will finally have the national audience to display it. Expect this offense to continue to rack up rushing yards with James Noble and Matt Brennan to make a couple key throws (under his terms) when his team needs it. The defense will have one or two more big plays than Nealy as Chris Gocong's two sacks extends the Mustangs dream at least another week. Cal Poly 31 Texas State 28

Comments. Questions. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com

Up Next: Cal Poly semifinal preview or all-conference team and post season awards.