Nov. 26, 2005

The Bottom Line Archives

The Bottom Line - Week 11
By Chris Kelly

Southern Illinois used two key North Dakota State special teams miscues in order to capture a 9-0 victory over the Bison. The win for the Salukis put them in the I-AA playoffs, while the loss for the Bison ends their season. All of the points were score in the first half of a game dominated by defense. A bad snap caused Bison punter Mike Dragosavich to be tackled at the 11-yard line. The Salukis would not waste the field position as Arkee Whitlock punched in a touchdown. Later a Saluki punt hit as Bison player downfield, which gave SIU the ball at 13-yard line. That led to a field goal just before the end of the first half.

Both the Bison and Saluki's played tremendous defense on Saturday holding the respective offenses below the 300-yard mark. Arkee Whitlock did clear the 100 yard mark (23 for 115) while quarterback Joel Sambursky was 18-28 for 135 yards. The Bison were led by Kyle Steffes' 65 yards on the ground, and safety Craig Dahl's 10 tackles.

CK's Take: Certainly a frustrating way to end the season for the Bison, who end the year at 7-4. The Bison weren't outplayed in this game, and in fact matched up well with the Salukis. The only reason the Bison ended up on the losing end was two miscues from the special teams. This was a very winnable game for NDSU, which is what makes it difficult to swallow. The good news is that the loss didn't hurt the Bison, but if this was the same situation two years from now, Saturday loss would have knocked the Bison out of any playoff hopes they might have had entering the game.

As inconsistent as the offense was the Bison defense played a great game. With Steffes not able to really get going, and Steve Walker struggling to find his rhythm, the defense stepped up really bottling up what had been a very potent offense coming into the game. The Bison should again be in great shape to contend for the conference championship next season with many key pieces returning, but one of the biggest questions heading into next season (outside of replacing lost starters) will be that of Steve Walker. Yesterday's 7 for 17 performance against a secondary that has struggled to defend the pass all season long was surprising. Along with Saturday's outing the sophomore quarterback looked average and made some questionable decisions at times over the back half of the season. That has to be somewhat concerning considering how amazing Walker looked when he took over the job last season and to start the 2005 season. To boot, Walker left the game after suffering injuries to his ACL, and MCL, which will require surgery and a six month recovery period. Walker's not an average quarterback, so I expected more out of his play, but it is something you can bet fans (especially with the injury) will think about as we march towards the 2006 season.

Other Games
Weber State 27 Southern Utah 10
Quick Hits: Despite a solid effort from the T-Birds defense, which held the Wildcats to just 243 yards, Southern Utah lost for the ninth time this season. SUU had the ball on their own 45 trailing by three points with less than five minutes to go - but things fell apart. The offense lost 28 yards on two possessions, and a botched punt led to great field position for the Wildcats. Jerome Eason led the T-Bird with five catches for 95 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown. SUU ends the season a disappointing 1-9 on the year. (Note: I incorrectly stated that WSU had won three games in a row heading into the SUU game last week. They had actually lost to Portland State, making them winners of three of their last four.)

Eastern Washington 24 UC Davis 7
Quick Hits: Even though Eric Meyer played less than a half he had his way with a thin Aggie defense moving the ball all over the Aggies. Still, pretty shocking that UC Davis failed to score any points offensively against a combination of 1st and 2nd team defenders of the Eagles. Quarterback Jon Grant is a tremendous big game player, but continues to have troubles in the "other" games. This Aggie team has to find some more consistency on offense and it has to start with Grant. The UCD defense is as banged up as they've been in years, and they need Grant to perform better to take some pressure off this thin unit. If this Aggies offense puts forth the same effort they did last Saturday this week against Northern Colorado, they'll not only lose their share of the conference title, but also the winning streak.

South Dakota State 30 Northern Colorado 14
Quick Hits: Two things that have plagued UNC all season, run defense and turnovers, hurt them again in their loss to South Dakota State. Bears quarterback Nick Hager threw four interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Jacks corner Hank McCall. The Jackrabbits also ran for 183 yards, highlighted by another 100-yard effort from Cory Koenig. The win was a solid ending to a nice season for the Jackrabbits, who surprisingly became one of the better rushing teams in the nation. UNC was again without the services of Andre Wilson, who ran the ball once before leaving with an injury. They travel to Davis to take on the Aggies in the final GWFC conference game of the year before they depart to the Big Sky.

Cal Poly 35 Idaho State 10
Quick Hits: I'll spare any sort of write-up here and just say these two things - Redshirt freshman running back James Noble is a stud (200+ yards and school record five touchdowns) and the Mustangs are headed to the PLAYOFFS for the first time in school history. I'll break it all down in the game of the week section.

Week 11 Games
This week there are only two games, but each important for different reasons. One game has conference title implications, while the other features the first ever I-AA playoff game in the history of Cal Poly football. I found my stride again last weekend ripping off a 5-0 week and pushing the season record to 34-12.

Northern Colorado (4-6, 0-4) @ UC Davis (5-5, 3-1)
The Aggies and Bears both limp into a regular season finale in Davis as both teams have key injuries heading into play this week. UNC's main horse out of the backfield, Andre Wilson, tried to go last weekend but left after gaining 16 yards on one rush. His health for this weekend game is uncertain, but he's going to give it a go no matter what shape he's in. If he can't go for very long, expect red shirt freshman back Patrick Ealy (175 yards in the last two games) to take over. He'll take the majority of carries is Wilson can't go this weekend, but the focus of this offense will not be the running game. Running against this Aggie defense, even with a thin defensive line, will not be easy. James Amos, John Faletoese have been excellent up front combining for 21.5 tackles for loss, in helping an Aggie defense to a ranking of 4th against the run. What will determine the winner in this game will be how effectively the Bears can pass the ball. I've raved all season about how talented both Andy Birkel and Cory Sleeth are at wideout, but consistently getting them ball has been a challenge at times. Quarterback Nick Hager has struggled over the past two games completing just 47% of his passes and throwing five interceptions. This week his ability to move the ball through the air will be scrutinized. The Bears have the weapons on the outside and are facing a secondary that is banged up. Keep an eye on this matchup this weekend - if the Aggies can pressure Hager and force him to throw early, or he makes some mistakes on his own the Aggies will be in good shape. The Aggies defensive line has been down to just seven healthy lineman the past two weekends and it's showed in the push they've been able to generate. The Aggies went without a sack for the first time all season in each of the last two games. This defensive line, although beat up, will have to get to Hager. If the Bears quarterback gets in one of his rhythms, this team can beat the Aggies with a successful passing game.

Last weekend the Aggies offense knew the difficult position the defense was in heading into play. The Aggies defense was tremendously beat up facing the most prolific offense in the nation. They needed the offense to deliver a big performance and keep the unit (that picked them up all season) off the field. But the offense came out flat and was unable to do anything against the first or second units of Eastern Washington. The Aggies offense looked much like the group that ran through the motions for three quarters in South Dakota. This weekend there is much riding on this game, which means Jon Grant has to slip out of his mini-funk of the last two games. Grant has to get back to making good decisions with the football, which involve getting Tony Kays and Blaise Smith the ball often. This passing offense, when Grant is at the top of his game, can be very dangerous. This is especially true if Nelson Doris can run the ball like he did last weekend picking up 99 yards on 18 carries. The Aggies have lacked a running game all season so if Doris can put together another strong game, it can only benefit the passing game. Trying to stop that group will be a UNC group that is allowing 180 yards per game at 4.4 per clip. Leading the way for the Bears defense is soon to be All-American safety Reed Doughty, who leads the nation in tackles. He's joined by freshman linebacker Jake Duren, whose sensational season (91 tackles, 3.5 for loss) spells bright things at the backer spot for three years to come. They lead the group tasked with containing the run, but against the Aggies, more so putting pressure on Grant. This is a game where the rush offenses will be neutralized for the most part, which means it will come down to the arms of Jon Grant and Nick Hager. With the Aggies trying to capture a share of the conference championship, and keep the streak of consecutive winning seasons alive this game means a lot for UC Davis. That means the advantage swing to the Aggies, who may play their final home game at Toomey Field this weekend. The Aggies are the more talented team with two important things to play for but if they come out with a lack of intensity ala last weekend then UNC will smack them in the mouth. In the end, the Aggies will find their passing game this weekend as Tony Kays has another one of those games to remember. The Aggies put this game away in the third en route to a 13 point victory. UC Davis 23 Northern Colorado 10

Game of the Week - Playoffs Round 1
#9 Cal Poly (8-3, 4-1) @ #8 Montana (9-2)
The Mustangs first trip to the playoffs has them playing in an all too familiar place - Washington Grizzly Stadium. It was just five weeks ago that these teams met in Missoula as Cal Poly was ranked 3rd in the nation and the Grizzlies 9th. On that Saturday, Montana got the best of Cal Poly 36-27. That win gave Montana a commanding 10-0 series advantage over Cal Poly. This appearance in the I-AA playoffs is the first for Cal Poly and the 13th straight for Montana, and its 16th overall.

Grizzlies offense vs. Cal Poly defense
The Grizzlies offense is a group that wants to beat you by slamming the ball down your throat in a physical manner, which by the way, is exactly the means they beat Cal Poly the last time these two teams met. First team All Big Sky running back Lex Hilliard had a monster day in leading the Grizzlies to one of the best rushing outputs all season as the team went for 277 yards. There's no denying that the game plan won't change much this weekend as Montana wants to establish the run and use that to open up what has been a lackluster passing game. As the Grizzlies focus on running the ball it will be against a front seven that has shown some susceptibility against the run this season. Heading into the Montana game a few weeks back they had allowed two backs over 100 yards then allowed Hillard to go over two hundred. Since then however, the Mustangs have been nails allowing only 64 yards a game which has allowed them to rise to #8 nationally against the rush. A big key to that success has been the play of the defensive line tying up blockers, which has allowed linebackers such as Kyle Shotwell (127 tackles, 12.5 tfl) to roam sideline to sideline making plays all over the field. No matter how well Cal Poly has played in the last few weeks stopping Montana is certainly much different than slowing the like of UC Davis, Southern Utah, and Idaho State. All three of those teams lack the physical presence of a Montana. So the biggest focus this weekend will be on slowing the run, including bringing up extra defenders like safety Kenny Chicoine, and Aaron Williams (likely to return from injury). The Mustangs have to sell out everything on the run and force Cole Bergquist, the Grizzlies red-shirt freshman quarterback to beat them. As impressive as some of the Montana results have been this season, they are still a group only averaging 321 yards a game, mainly because they haven't been able to develop any sort of consistency passing the ball. In fact since Bergquist's start against Cal Poly (56% completions, 2 touchdowns) he's really struggled to move the ball through the air. In the four games since he faced the Mustangs he's only completing 46% of his passes, averaging 111 yard per game, and has thrown three picks to just one touchdown. It's quite clear by Bergquist's play that he is not completely comfortable in this offense, and the Mustangs have to make him beat them. They can afford to let their corners, Randy Samuel, and Courtney Brown (6 picks) play man on the outside and bring everything else to the line to slow the run, and pressure Bergquist. With the way that the young Montana quarterback has played Cal Poly has to feel good about their chances of beating a one-dimensional offense. Then again, they couldn't stop the run last time, so adjustments coming out of the last game will be key. If Hilliard is held to under four yards per carry, Cal Poly will sit in excellent shape to win this game. But if he does anything like what he did five weeks ago, Montana will cruise to a victory this Saturday.

Mustang offense vs. Montana defense
Last time these two teams met it was Anthony Garnett who was quarterbacking the Mustangs, and doing so quite efficiently. Entering the game against the Grizzlies, Garnett came into play one of the top quarterbacks in I-AA. Maybe his stats weren't unbelievably impressive, but he was one of the nation's best in terms of efficiency and ran the Cal Poly offense superbly. However, in that game Garnett suffered a season ending injury, which means the reigns were turned over to freshman Matt Brennan. Brennan's first appearance saw him struggle mightily at UC Davis, but since then he's played much better. In the three games since his rough start he's been averaging 160 yards through the air, and 60 yards on the ground. The big difference in the improvement from his first start - a little confidence, and the return of running back James Noble from injury. It's no secret that Cal Poly wants to run the ball with James Noble, as he is the heart and soul of this offense. Running the ball against this defense will be a challenge, even considering the Mustangs did it last time they met. The Grizzlies come into play just a few spots behind the Mustangs in rush defense allowing 120 per game. The Griz are led by sophomore linebacker Tyler Joyce, who is one of the top linebackers in the Big Sky. Along the defensive line, Mike Murphy (8 tfl, 6 sacks) and Lance Spencer (7 tfl, 4 sacks) are the Montana stars who will try to disrupt the timing of an impressive Mustang offensive line that has allowed just 13 sacks all season. It's clear though that the Griz have one clear goal this weekend, which is basically the same game plan as Cal Poly - contain the run. The Grizzlies have to slow Noble who has been a man possessed the past few week and force Brennan to beat them. The young quarterback has improved but will still be making only his fifth start and this week's atmosphere will be unlike any other one he's ever played in before. As the Mustangs focus in on the run, it will fall to Brennan to make a few plays. He's proven he can run the option effectively, surpassing 70 yards rushing in two of his last three starts. But the biggest question will be his ability to make plays with his arm this Saturday. Can Brennan make the big throw when his team needs it? He has the weapons on the outside capable of breaking free, and a strong arm. Last time in Missoula, freshman sensation Ramses Barden caught 5 balls for 125 yards. Brennan needs to rely not only on the big play Barden but the other receivers, whose experience is a big advantage for the Mustangs. Brennan ability to make a couple plays this weekend could just be the difference in this game. If he makes some "young" mistakes on Saturday, the Griz will walk away winners. But if Brennan stays within the offense, and doesn't force the action, Cal Poly will have a great shot to advance to the second round.

Key Matchup: James Noble, RB, Cal Poly vs. Lex Hillard, RB, Montana. This weekend two of the best backs in the nation will square off in a battle of heavyweights. Noble enters play with the better resume following a career game against Idaho State last weekend. He currently ranks 4th in the nation averaging 145 yards per game, and a disgusting 7.8 per carry average. That average is by far the best of the top 100 rushers in the nation. He's been the sparkplug of this offense, especially following the key loss of quarterback Anthony Garnett last time the Mustangs visited Montana just a few weeks back. He's gone over 100-yards in seven of his nine starts. Hilliard may not have quite the numbers that Noble does but he's got scoreboard. Hilliard, who ranks 18th nationally in rushing (111 ypg, 5.3 per carry), blew up against the Mustangs earlier this season rushing for a career high 237 yards on 34 carries. Now the Mustangs have to worry about finding a way to stop Hilliard, while the Griz know the key to Cal Poly's success rests on the effectiveness of their running game. These two guys should both have solid games this weekend, but the guy who gets the best of the other will undoubtedly lead his team to the second round.

X-Factor: Weather. It's been unseasonably warm in all of California for the past two weeks, making for a great November. But this weekend Cal Poly will see a dramatic change in the conditions as they take the field to play Montana. The weather forecast on Saturday is calling for a high of 33 degrees (less than half of what it was in SLO this week) with rain and snow showers. For a disciplined team like the Mustangs I don't think the weather will become a huge disadvantage unless they allow it to. It will be cold and nasty for both teams, so they biggest focus becomes protecting the ball. Rain and snow doesn't favor one team over the other because it plays into both teams strength, which is running the ball. The key is making sure the difficult conditions don't play a role in the outcome of this game. With two quarterbacks still lacking a ton of experience, each decision must be intelligent, rather than a game decider. Neither team is that far ahead over the other that they can afford to lose the turnover battle by more than one. Look out the weather could have a big say in final score, especially between two teams that combined for nine turnovers the last time they met.

The Roundtable Says:
Kent Schmidt (6-3): A lot has changed for Cal Poly since the last time they played in Missoula. The Mustangs have a new quarterback, who in my opinion can throw it a little better. I believe throwing the ball will be the key for Cal Poly to win. However, I don't think it will happen. Montana somehow plays at an extra level in the playoffs. I will take the Grizzlies by ten. Montana 27 Cal Poly 17

Jeff Kolpack (6-5): Tough to win at Washington-Grizzly anytime, but especially in November. Montana 21, Cal Poly 13.

Mike Mirer (6-5): Riding a three-game winning streak and with James Noble running the ball, it's really hard to pick against Poly this week. But I'm going to do it. Montana's at home and even though Poly QB Matt Brennan has authored some good wins in recent weeks; he's not yet the playmaker Anthony Garnett was. Another good season for the GWFC ends Saturday. Montana 36, Cal Poly 35

The Bottom Line: It's not often fans get a chance to see two teams of this caliber play twice within a matter of five weeks. But this week's game has the potential to be just as good as the game fans were treated to on October 22nd. And that's considering how much things have changed since the last time these two teams met. First, it's Matt Brennan under center for the Mustangs, which won't be an easy start for the red-shirt freshman. And of course this isn't a regular season game - this is Missoula in late November, which of course means playoff football. If Cal Poly saw a raucous atmosphere last time they visited, this week Griz fans will put it to shame. Hey, there's a reason why it's so difficult to win at Washington Grizzly Stadium. Just ask Northwestern State, New Hampshire, and Sam Houston State who all found out the hard way last season during the playoffs. For those same reasons there won't be many people that will give the Mustangs a chance this Saturday, but I do. And it's not just because of the trite cliché regarding the difficulty of beating a team twice in the same season, although that has to play a role in this weekend's outcome. Yes, I did pick the Mustangs to win the last time these two teams played, and did so incorrectly. But I also nailed Mustang wins in games against both Montana State, and Eastern Washington when not many people gave them a shot. This team has impressed me all season, and they won't be fazed by their return trip to Montana this weekend. The Mustangs coaching staff has always been adept at making halftime adjustments, and now they've had an entire week to prepare for a team they just saw five weeks ago. Give head coach Rich Ellerson that much time, and I like his chances. The biggest difference in this game will be the running of Lex Hilliard. Look for the Mustangs to hold Hilliard to less than half of what he had last time, and put a ton of pressure on Cole Bergquist to win this game with his arm. And even though I think roughly the same scenario will play out on the other side of the ball, it will be Noble's ability to break off a few key runs, and Brennan legs (not arm) that prove to be the three point difference in this game. Cal Poly holds off the Grizzlies in a relatively low scoring game for these two teams and advances to the 2nd round. Cal Poly 20 Montana 17

Comment. Questions. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com.

Up Next: Either Cal Poly quarterfinal preview or season ending awards