The Bottom Line - Week 12
By Chris Kelly
The game of the week in Davis this past Saturday never materialized as the Bison of North Dakota State dominated the UC Davis Aggies 25-7 to finish the year at 8-3. The Bison got on the board on their first scoring on their first two drives. Both scores were 4th down touchdown passes by Steve Walker putting NDSU in the lead, 14-0. Just ten minutes into the game the offense had given the defense all it would need.
In the second quarter, the Bison defense registered a safety, and wasted no time in finding the end zone again. Shortly after the kick, Walker tossed a 50 yard scoring strike to Marques Johnson to put the Bison up 22-0. The Aggies would put up a fourth quarter touchdown, but were limited in their scoring chances all day long by a swarming defense. Walker finished with 227 yards, while his counterpart Jon Grant threw for 240 yards. The difference was the powerful Bison running duo (Steffes/Chapman), which racked up over 180 yards on the ground.
CK's Take: Well after seeing the Bison first hand on Saturday, man was I impressed. This team continued its excellent play by dominating the Aggies on Saturday afternoon. The Bison appeared to have an advantage along the lines coming into the game, and that's exactly where the game was won. North Dakota State dominated the trenches, and pushed the Aggies around all day. The offensive line was opening up huge holes to run through. Couple that with some impressive running, especially from Cinque Chapman, and the Bison were able to roll up yardage in a hurry. The Aggies do an excellent job against the run, but were just pushed off the ball on Saturday. This doesn't mean that Davis had a horrid game; the Bison offensive line is just that good. They owned the game.
Steve Walker, the Bison quarterback, had another efficient day making a few throws that really impressed me. Both of the Bison scores in the first quarter came on great plays by the freshman, one on a play in which Walker scrambled, and threw a bullet for a touchdown. As the Bison were able to control the line of scrimmage, they consistently put their offense in favorable situations. When Walker did drop back to pass, he had little to no pressure to deal with. On the other side of the ball, the Bison defensive line spent quite a bit of time in the Aggies backfield. Aggie quarterback Jon Grant was never able to full establish a rhythm as he pressured on almost every play. The Bison rarely blitzed, needing only their front four to pressure the Aggies quarterback. It allowed the Bison to drop their linebackers into coverage, which made things even more difficult for the Aggies passing game.
The win for the Bison marks the end of the season, which results in their first ranking among the top 25. The ranking is well deserved, but I'd love to see this team continue playing. The Bison peaked over their last four games on both sides of the ball. The defense played solid all year, and when Walker took over at quarterback the offense seemed to find their groove. They seem to be getting better each game Walker was at the helm. As for the Aggies, there were not a lot of positives to take away from the game. They'll need to go back, look at film, and try to get ready for a tough road game at Portland State this weekend. Last week's game was a major gut check, and with one game to go, how this team responds will be interesting to watch.
One team that responded with a flurry was the Cal Poly Mustangs, who pounded the Northern Colorado Bears 31-0. The Mustangs used a big game from Geno Randle, who ran for 186 yards, and a touchdown. He started the scoring breaking a 73-yard run in the first quarter, and ended it with a 76-yard jaunt to put the game away. Mustang quarterback Anthony Garnett was 12-20 for 172 yards and a long scoring pass to Darrell Jones. The speedy receiver ended with 126 yards receiving. Walter Payton candidate Vincent Jackson has 98 yards receiving. The Cal Poly defense was back in form holding the Bears offense in check with under 300 total yards of offense.
CK's Take: This win was enormous for the Mustangs for many reasons. The first and foremost is the win, coupled with the UC Davis loss, allows Cal Poly to capture the first Great West Conference title. Secondly, it righted the ship. Cal Poly had lost two consecutive games, in which the defense allowed over 1000 yards of offense. That group responded this week by shutting down the Bears, and the running game emerged again. Finally, with just Sacramento State on the schedule, the first playoff birth for Cal Poly appears within reach. Much more to come on the Mustangs later in the column
The final game of the weekend actually turned out to be the best as Southern Utah edged South Dakota State, 23-17, in double overtime. The Jacks were out to an early lead on a Brad Nelson touchdown pass when Casey Rehrer responded with a 33-yard score of his own to Jerome Eason. The teams were tied at 13 at halftime, and neither team managed a score in the second half, which forced overtime. SUU scored first on a 4th down quarterback sneak to grab the lead in the first overtime. Brad Nelson, however, countered with a scoring pass on third and long to force another extra session. The T-birds defense was up to the challenge as they sacked Nelson twice. It only took three plays for SUU's Gordon Reid scored from eight yards out giving Southern Utah their 5th win of the season. Chris Coauette led the Jackrabbits with 10 tackles, while Nick DiPadova has 17 stops for the Thunderbirds. Casey Rehrer led the T-Birds 464 yard output with 315 passing yards.
Week 12 Games
The North Dakota Bison completed their season last weekend, but the remaining five teams complete their seasons this weekend. Cal Poly hopes a win this weekend extends their season into the playoffs. There's one final conference game, but three games against Big Sky competition. The Great West heads into this weekend with a slim 6-5 lead over the Big Sky, which means a big weekend in the friendly battle between to the western conferences. I finished 2-1 last weekend moving the season record to 34-11 (.755)
Idaho State @ Southern Utah
Southern Utah is home for their final game of the season, in which a win would allow the Thunderbirds to finish above the .500 mark since 2000. The opponent this week is the Big Sky's Idaho State Bengals. ISU's record is just 3-7, but don't let the record fool you. This team is dangerous. The Bengals are fresh off a win against Northern Arizona in which they trailed 17-0 and fought back to win. They've also lost to Montana and Montana State by a combined 6 points.
This weekend game's certainly has big offensive potential. The Bengals, despite their poor record, can put up points. They average nearly 400 yards of offense, but in return the defense allows 423. That certainly bodes well for a Southern Utah team that is 3-1 at home and averaging 448 yards in those games. Bengal quarterback Mark Hetherington and wide receiver Sale Key make for a dangerous dup that has combined for eight scores. Hetherington, though, has thrown 17 interceptions to 15 touchdown passes. We know Casey Rehrer can put up yards in bunches and this SUU team should be able to match anything the Bengals can do. The difference in this game is that the Thunderbirds can play some defense holding opponents to less than 300 yards a game. That front seven of Southern Utah will be the difference in this game, as the pressure will force Hetherington into some untimely mistakes. Watch out for Nick DiPadova to finish a great career with another huge game. Southern Utah finishes on a high note as the defense finds the end zone this weekend. Southern Utah 27 Idaho State 21
South Dakota State @ Northern Colorado
The Jackrabbits enter this weekend with the same angle to play for as Southern Utah. SDSU is 5-5 entering the game and a win would put them above the .500 mark, a pretty impressive finish after what I initially expect from this team. A win would also create a four way tie for third place in the conference. Northern Colorado is standing at 2-8, but a win would give them a winning record within the conference at 3-2.
It used to be that Greeley, Colorado was a very difficult place to win. This year that mystique has changed as UNC has lost three games at home. Northern Colorado started with Tony Christensen at quarterback last week before going to Nick Hager. Neither was able to get the team in the end zone, but Hager put up much better numbers statistically than Christensen. I expect Coach O. Kay Dalton may go with Hager this weekend as Hager appears to give the Bears the better chance to win. Either way this offense does not work without a run game, and with Cal Poly shutting it down last week, the offense sputtered. This week something similar may is likely to happen as the Jacks play very solid run defense. They'll be focused on slowing Andre Wilson and Jahir Waterman, thus putting all the pressure on Hager to make plays. If the Jacks can successfully contain the run, they'll be sitting excellent position to win this game.
Offensively, the Jacks have to like the way Geno Randle ran the ball last week against this defense, and will look for similar numbers from Anthony Watson. I think Watson will get over 100 this week, which should open up the passing game for quarterback Brad Nelson. Heading into the final game of the season, I wonder what's in the Bears tanks. They've been battered by a brutal schedule all season long, suffered through a few key injuries, and the pride has to be in shambles with preseason expectations so high. After winning against Southern Utah two weeks ago, then to come back and play the way they did last weekend, I don't know where the Bears psyche is coming into play Saturday. South Dakota State is the slightly better team, even on the road, but is much more motivated. Not even a huge game from Vincent Jackson this weekend can keep the Jacks from grabbing their 6th win. South Dakota State 30 Northern Colorado 17
U.C. Davis @ Portland State
In terms of matchups, this might be the best game of the weekend but with no implications riding on it, it fell just short of the game of the week. Portland State has had a strong season, fairing better than many of the pre-season prognosticators has expected. PSU was picked last in both the pre-season media and coach's poll, but now sits at 6-4 overall, and at 4-3 is 4th in the eight-team conference.
The Aggies are fresh off a poor performance against the power running game of North Dakota State. This week they get another team that can run the ball very well with running back Ryan Fuqua. All Fuqua has done over his career is rack up over 4,500 yards to put him third all time on the Big Sky career rush list. Joe Ruben, a junior back, is an excellent compliment to Fuqua averaging 86 yards per game on the ground. PSU is actually much like North Dakota State that they focus on the run game with a talented duo and average more rushing yards than passing. In total, the Vikings put up 375 yards a game, over 200 of which come via the ground game. The biggest contributor of that ground game is Fuqua who averages 97 yards a game and five yards per carry. The good news for the Aggies is that the Vikings offensive line is very good, but not as dominant as that of the Bison. The Vikings run the ball well for a reason, so the Ags defensive line will need to step up their play to slow it. UCD will have to focus in again on the run and force Joe Wiser, the PSU quarterback, to beat them. Wiser is only completing passes at 51% and has nearly a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio. If UCD can get PSU into obvious passing situations, then the advantage certainly swings the way of the Ags. Knowing the way they were handled last weekend, this defensive line will come into the game with a score to settle, so expect them to play with something to prove. Fuqua and his success on the ground make this team go. The Aggies have one goal first, to stop the run. If they can do this successfully, they'll put themselves in a good spot to win the game.
The Aggies offense sputtered last week and again it was something similar that UC Davis has seen this season. North Dakota State defensive line was good enough to apply pressure without bringing extra defenders. This is something that Stephen F. Austin used successfully in the second half of that UCD loss. This offense is explosive and I can talk about Jon Grant's ability to make plays, and the receiver's talent across the field, but none of this matter if the offensive line doesn't give Grant some time. It's likely that the Aggies won't find their answer to their running woes this weekend, so the method to win this game will be via the air. This is especially true when you consider that PSU leads the Big Sky in stopping the run. If given the time, the Aggies have proven they can move the ball consistently on anyone. But it all comes down to getting the time. The Aggies need the line to hold up, and they can't allow just the front four to be the only ones rushing. If this offense is working then PSU will have to bring extra pressure to slow it. This game all comes down to the offensive line responding and protecting Grant. I expect that the Aggies will defense the run better than they did last week, but will not be able to hold this team to less than 125 yards rushing. The Viking O-line may not be as dominant as NDSU, but their backs are just as good, if not better. This will force extra help to come up and Joe Wiser will get man coverage on the outside. Although his numbers don't blow anyone away, Wiser has played much better over Portland's last three games, all wins. Jon Grant will have to carry the team, because the running game won't be there. That means PSU can pin their ears back and bring it. This defense can bring it; they are the best the Big Sky has to offer. To boot, the Vikings are at home and playing good football. This game is shaping up just like last week. The difference is that the Vikings won't dominate the trenches like the Bison did. They will win the battle though. Portland State 24 UC Davis 20
Game of the Week
#18 Cal Poly @ Sacramento State
Trends. The two teams meet for the 28th time, as the Hornets lead the series 15-12. The Mustangs won last year in San Luis Obispo 31-17, but the Hornets have won the last three games played in Sacramento. Sacramento State holds a 7-5 advantage at home in the series.
Implications: Throw all this other stuff out however. There's one reason this game has fallen in the game of the week section. A win means a trip to the playoffs for Cal Poly. The Great West would send their first playoff team, and Cal Poly would participate in the playoffs for the first time in I-AA. A loss would still give the Mustangs a shot to make the field of 16, but losing to a 3-7 team in the final week of the season would likely leave the Mustangs on the outside looking in.
Mustang offense vs. Hornet defense. Last week the Mustang offense saw a very welcome sight, Geno Randle running wild. I've been talking about the Mustangs really needing him down the stretch and last week he was able to deliver a big game. Randle has been playing each week, but has hardly practiced the past month, as he's nursed an injury that has really hampered his effectiveness. This week, the Mustangs are facing interesting situation in that they need to let everything hang out to make sure they win this game. Thus Randle can't rest, but the hope is to get him some work, then sit him if Cal Poly can get out to a nice advantage. If this run game comes along at the right time, this is what can make this team so much more dangerous come playoff time. A healthy Randle would be a huge benefit to this team. Another benefit will be the generosity of the Hornet defense, which allows over 420 yards of offense. They aren't terrible against the run but teams have thrown the ball all over the field on them. The Mustangs should move the ball, but will really focus in on the run to start. Anthony Garnett will look for Darrell Jones early and often, as the two have developed some successful chemistry. It would be a positive sign to see the Mustangs as balanced as they were a week ago. If they are, this game will be a blowout.
Hornet offense vs. Mustang defense. The Hornets have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, led by All American wide receiver Fred Amey. The problem this season has been the ineffectiveness of quarterback Ryan Leadingham. The senior quarterback looked so promising in his first season as a starter, but has consistently put up disappointing numbers year to year since then. This season he's only completing 51% of his passes and has thrown four more interceptions than touchdowns. Things will not get better facing this defense who will assuredly force him into at least one pick this weekend, if not more. A bright spot on the offense has been freshman Ryan Mole, who appears to be the next big running back for the Hornets. He's averaging over 100 yards per game at 6.4 per carry. Mole has also had his best games at home where the Hornets average twice as many rush yards in Sacramento. Well there's always next year for Mole. Look for the freshman to struggle this weekend, which means the Hornets must pass to win. This side of the ball just screams "this may get ugly" from the get go. If the Hornets don't put together one of their better offensive games, Cal Poly may end up with some impressive stats on this side of the ball.
X Factor: Fred Amey, WR, Sacramento State. The Mustangs have an All-American in Jordan Beck, but Sacramento State counters with wide receiver Fred Amey. In January these two will be teammates in the East West Shrine game, but for now, opponents. Look, these teams don't match up well on paper, but if there is one game changer, it's Amey. He's got over 1000 yards receiving this season with 67 catches, and has almost 4,000 yards for his career. This is one of those guys on a struggling team (much like Vincent Jackson) that can single handedly carry a team. But just like Jackson, he can't do everything; he needs his quarterback to get him the ball. The Mustangs know this and they'll roll coverage his way all afternoon, since there's not many other places this offense can beat them. Amey becomes all the more dangerous because he also returns punts and kickoffs. The Mustangs will be plenty happy to allow Amey to get his 100 yards, and not get beat anywhere else. They just don't want Amey to break a big special team's play, and get loose on a couple big pass plays. If he does, this game could be close to the end.
The Roundtable says:
Jeff Kolpack: (5-5) "Cal Poly has been at this too long and worked too hard to get to
this point. Cal Poly 47, Sac State 17."
Kent Schmidt: (6-4) "Cal Poly turned things around last week against Northern Colorado in winning 31-0 to keep their playoff hopes alive. A win at Sacramento State likely will mean a post season birth for the Great West champions; at least in my opinion. Sacramento State, however, is a team that cannot be overlooked. The Hornets defeated playoff hopeful Montana State two weeks ago to dampen the Bobcats' playoff hopes. I do not think Cal Poly will not fall victim to the same fate as Montana State though when so much is on the line. I see a two touchdown spread in a Hornets' victory. Cal Poly 31 Sacramento State 17
Mike Mirer: (9-1) "Not much to break down here, Poly is very good and Sac St. is not.
Mustangs ride an impressive performance into the playoffs. Poly 54, Sac 0"
Chris Solari: (6-4) "Three reasons Cal Poly's win will be significant: The Great West
will win its season series with Big Sky schools, the Mustangs will earn the conference's
first playoff berth and their first in I-AA, and Mike Mirer can officially say that he's run
the table on the rest of us schmoes. Cal Poly 31, Sacramento State 14."
The Bottom line: This game leans towards one team without question. One team is
ranked, and on the verge of a playoff birth. The other is playing out the string, in which
the end of the season can't get here soon enough. But there are a couple of things to point
out. Sacramento's three wins have all come at home, where this teams seems to play and
run the ball much better. Also, just look back two weeks ago when the Hornets knocked
off Montana State, in what is easily deemed a sizable upset. The win basically shut down
the Bobcats hopes of a playoff appearance. The Hornets are hoping to finish off another
team this week. The problem is this Cal Poly team has come too far, and played too well
all season for a mental lapse. They want this, and proved it to me the way they pounded
on Northern Colorado last weekend after two losses. I expect the Mustangs to come out
with fire, and jump on the mistake prone Hornets early. It will be a long day for the Sac
State offense because this defense will have its way with the Hornet offensive line.
Mustang fans better start researching flights out of San Luis, as the Mustangs are headed
to the playoffs. Cal Poly 41 Sacramento State 13.
Next week: Assuming Cal Poly win - in depth preview of their first round playoff game.
Two weeks: All Conference team, postseason awards, and more!
Comments. Questions. Email Chris @ gwfcfootball@hotmail.com
