Nov. 17, 2005

The Bottom Line Archives

The Bottom Line - Week 10
By Chris Kelly

The battle for the Dakota Marker had all the makings of another great one - at least for a half. The two teams went into the locker room with the Bison leading the Jacks by one score. But the Bison got loose in the final 30 minutes outscoring South Dakota State 20-3 to roll onto an impressive 41-17 victory.

After the Jacks had pulled to within 14 points on a Parker Douglass field goal, the Bison put the game away quickly. Quarterback Steve Walker hit AJ Cooper on a 63-yard scoring pass. That pass play was a big piece of Walker's 170-yard performance through the air. But the biggest story of this game was the rushing attack of North Dakota State, which went for over 300 yards on the day. Kyle Steffes cleared the 100-yard mark with 141 yards, while Cinque Chapman added another 98. The two backs combined for four touchdowns. Bison linebacker Brett Itterman had one heck of a game defensively. He led the team in tackles with 9, and also chipped in 3.5 for loss, and interception and two sacks. Billy Ray Kirch led the Jacks with 13 stops.

CK's Take: What a role reversal. The Jacks came into play with one of the best rushing offenses in the nation, but were made to look rather ordinary by a strong defensive effort from North Dakota State. Cory Koenig had 87 yards, and averaged 4.6 per carry but clearly this was not the rushing attack Jacks fans were used to seeing. For the most part, the Bison slowed the run and took South Dakota State completely out of their game. From the first snap it was very apparent the Bison strategy was to bring everyone they could into the box, and force the Jacks to beat them through the air. It worked as both Andy Kardoes, and Ryan Berry threw two picks each, which set up Bison scoring drives. Once the Bison got out to a lead, it made it very difficult for this Jacks offense, so reliant on successfully running the ball, to make any sort of comeback. The question now is that the last we see of Andy Kardoes this season, or will red-shirt freshman Ryan Berry take over. Either way South Dakota State has to find a way to spark their passing game, because it's the really the only thing holding this offense back from being very, very good.

The Bison won this game because they owned the line of scrimmage - on both sides of the ball. They ran the ball down the Jacks throats, and SDSU had no answer throughout the entire game. This Bison offense looked as impressive as they've been all year rolling up over 300 yards on the ground and 477 in total. After consecutive unimpressive outings against UC Davis and Cal Poly a few weeks back, NDSU has clearly righted the ship. They dominated teams they were expected to (SUU/UNC), and then beat up a Jacks team that has given just about everyone a tough game this season. Hats off to Kyle Steffes, who went over the 1000-yard mark, and scored three more touchdowns. It's also good to see Cinque Chapman getting more carries - he provides a great change of pace to Steffes.

Other Games
Cal Poly 20 Southern Utah 10
Cal Poly scored the final 20 points in a game they actually trailed at home 10-0. Matt Brennan threw for over 200 yards and a score, while James Noble rushed for over 100 yards for the sixth time this season. Ramses Barden caught a career high nine passes for 104 yards, while Chris Gocong picked up another two sacks. The Mustangs out gained Southern Utah 470-277.

Quick Hits: Now just one game stands between Cal Poly and a trip to the playoffs. If the Mustangs win next week at home against Idaho State, not even the committee will be able to find a reason to keep the Mustangs out. A win against the Bengals and Cal Poly can start talking playoffs. If Matt Brennan gets them there, then Mustangs fans can start talking about maybe the best freshman trio in the nation - Brennan, Noble, and Barden.

Northern Colorado 24 Sam Houston State 3
The Bears forced six turnovers and outscored the Bearkats 24-0 over the course of the final three quarters en route to a win in the team's final game at Nottingham field this season. Patrick Ealy ran for 100 yards on 22 carries, which included a 53-yard scamper in the third quarter. Cory Sleeth and Andy Birkel both caught Nick Hager touchdowns passes, while Reed Doughty led the team in tackles with 13, including two interceptions.

Quick Hits: The Bears came into Saturday's game nearly a touchdown underdog at home, but pulled a mild surprise by holding the Bearkats to their lowest point total of the year. Let's not forget this offense can play a little bit when they put things together, and even without Andre Wilson, UNC capitalized on great field position all day. The surprise was on the defensive side of the ball, where Northern Colorado held Sam Houston State to just 239 yards of offense. Reed Doughty should have just about locked up his spot as 1st team All-American safety on everyone ballot with his performance.

Week 10 Games
This week's games feature a full slate of games with five battles, the most in seven weeks. With five games there's only one conference battle, but four solid non-conference games. Three games involve Big Sky opponents, while Southern Illinois hosts a Great West opponent for the first time. This weekend's games will mark the final game for at least two teams, possibly three. Last week's soft 1-2 mark put the season total at 29-12 (.707)

Weber State (5-4) at Southern Utah (1-8, 1-4)
Southern Utah returns home looking for their second win of the season, and it appears there are no breaks in the Thunderbird schedule. A few weeks back this game might have appeared one of the easier games on the schedule, but now they face a Weber State team playing its best football of the season. The Wildcats will hit Cedar City on Saturday riding a three games winning, which includes an impressive road win at Eastern Washington. The improvement has really been at the quarterback position where Ian Pizarro has really become comfortable as the leader of this offense. He's thrown for over 2100 yards and 16 touchdowns, and is using all three of his talented wide receivers (Lynzell Jackson, Tery Larson, Wiley King) to move the football. Zach Hall is over 700 yards rushing at 4.7 per carry. In fact this offense is averaging 395 yards per game. That not a good sign for the Thunderbird team that ranks 93rd also allowing 395 yards per game. I expect that Weber State's offensive proficiency should continue this weekend against a Southern Utah team that has really struggled to find defensive consistency this season. Offensively, the T-Birds won't be able to hang with the Wildcats because they continue to struggle to generate any sort of rushing attack. As team have stymied the run they have pinned their ears back and made life tough for Wes Marshall, and Zac Connors. I don't expect things to change much this week as Weber will have enough to keep SUU out of the win column. Weber State 30 Southern Utah 17

Northern Colorado (4-5, 0-3) at South Dakota State (5-5, 2-2)
The Jacks loss last weekend proved to be a tough one as it took them out of the running for a split of the Great West Football conference title. Now South Dakota State must refocus on the Bears who should come into play feeling much better after a solid win over Sam Houston State. In that game, Northern Colorado once again returned to a solid balance on the ground and in the air. Interestingly enough they did it without their star back, Andre Wilson, who missed his second consecutive game. Wilson was a gametime decision last week, and is expected to go this week, which should be a big boost to the Bears offense. Not much will change this weekend, as the Bears will look to move the ball on the ground, but certainly give their senior quarterback ample opportunity to utilize his talents at wide receiver. Those receivers, Cory Sleeth and Andy Birkel, continue to have fine seasons averaging over 145 yards per game combined. The way that North Dakota State ran the ball last weekend and owned the line of scrimmage, I would expect the Bears to show even more dedication to the run this weekend. If they can get their running backs going early, things will really open up for a dangerous passing offense. If the Jacks can tighten up along the defensive line and slow the run, they'll still have to worry about Hager. When Hager is on, he can cause some real problems for a secondary.

Northern Colorado will almost certainly see the formula on film, which beat the Jacks last week, and employ a similar strategy. The Bears know how well South Dakota State runs the ball with Cory Koenig and Anthony Watson. My question is how effective can the Bears be this weekend against the run? Certainly it's what UNC has to do - force the SDSU quarterbacks to prove they can beat the opposition through the air. But in order to do that, the Bears will have to contain this run. Last weekend, UNC really corralled Sam Houston on the ground allowing just over 80 yards, one of their best efforts of the season. Conversely, the Jacks were held in check, but that's not something I expect to continue this weekend. All season the Bears have been suspect against the run, which makes for a very difficult task against a group that can really bring it on the ground. Last week, the Jacks just got worked by the Bison defense, but the Bears aren't as talented as the Bison and this game is on the Jacks home field. I expect that this South Dakota State team will rebound nicely this week as the ground game starts to churn out some serious yards. Koenig will find the 100-yard mark, and Anthony Watson will contribute some big plays as well. But this Bears team can move the ball when especially with Wilson returning to the lineup, and will do so this weekend. I like the Jacks to win this on the ground, but this game will be a little closer than some might expect especially as the Jacks continue to struggle to throw the ball effectively. South Dakota State 28 Northern Colorado 23

Idaho State (5-5) at #13 Cal Poly (7-3, 4-1)
There may be two better games (involving GWFC teams) this weekend but this game means the most because of the implications it hold for the Cal Poly Mustangs. If Cal Poly wins, their 8-3 mark should be good enough to warrant one of the eight at large births to the playoffs. To get that spot in the field of 16 Cal Poly has to win at home against Idaho State. The Bengals come into play 5-5 and regardless of what happens this weekend, this game will close out their season. The Bengals offense averages nearly 29 points and enters the game fairly balanced in the means they'll attempt to beat their opponent. Josh Barnett and Ken Cornist have combined for nearly 1500 yards rushing as both averages over 4.4 per carry. Matt Hagler is the centerpiece of the offense, as the quarterback is averaging 182 yards per game and has thrown for eight touchdowns this season. However, as dangerous as this offense can be to their opponent, they're equally dangerous to themselves. The Bengals have turned the ball over 25 times this season, including 14 picks from the arm of Matt Hagler. This isn't exactly ideal numbers for an offense that is facing a talented and opportunistic defense (#20 in turnover margin) the caliber of Cal Poly. The Mustangs are fresh off another game where they held an the opposition to under 300 yards, picked off two passes, and sacked the quarterback nine times. Those nine sacks keep the Mustangs at #1 in the nation in sacking the quarterback at 5.2 per game, a full sack better than the next team. This Bengal offense is dangerous and if they are on their game can make life difficult on a defense. But the Bengals also make too many mistakes, which is something that a defense like Cal Poly makes you pay for. Advantage: Mustangs. Look for a defensive score at some point on Saturday night.

Offensively, the Mustangs just want to continue the great momentum this group has demonstrated the past two weeks under the control of red-shirt freshman quarterback Matt Brennan. After a very rough start against UC Davis, Brennan has played very well against both Eastern Washington, and Southern Utah. There's no doubt that the Mustangs have talent all over the field on the offensive side of the ball, especially at the skill position. But the biggest goal for head coach Rich Ellerson is to get his youngster as much situational experience as he can especially if the Mustangs find their way into the playoffs. Look for the Mustangs to stick with the option, allowing James Noble and Brennan significant carries this weekend. But assuming the Mustangs can get out to a lead, it would be nice to see Ellerson open things up with his young quarterback. There's no replacement for game experience and with a playoff road trip likely around the corner Brennan has to be as game tested as the Mustangs can get him. Cal Poly enters this game as clear favorites with a tough defense, and an offense finding a rhythm under Brennan. But, don't forget this Idaho State team has won against Portland State, Eastern Washington, and played I-A Kentucky very close. If the Mustangs don't come out with their A game this group has the potential to sting you. However, Rich Ellerson and his team are playing with a bad taste in their mouths after what happened a season ago. They know exactly what this games means and are determined to not let their shot at a national title slip away. Look for the turnovers to hurt the Bengals again as Noble clears 100 yards again en route to a big (playoff clinching) win by the Mustangs. Cal Poly 34 Idaho State 20

UC Davis (3-1, 5-4) at #19 Eastern Washington (6-4)
UC Davis had a bye last weekend following a late collapse against Stephen F. Austin two weeks earlier. The Aggies led that game by 10 point deep into the third before the wheels fell off. Quarterback Jon Grant suffered three interceptions and left the game for a couple series due to cramps. Both series he missed resulted in interceptions by backup quarterback Matt Engle. To make matters worse, Tony Kays, the Aggies standout wide receiver, suffered a hip contusion and missed most of the second half. Grant will try to rebound this weekend, while Kays hopes to play in a game the Aggies know they'll need to score some point to keep pace with a potent Eastern Washington offense. UCD may be without tight end Daniel Fells, and lacks much of a running game. Tony Kays hopes to go, but in the instance that he can't, Jon Grant will have to rely on his other young receivers to step up. If UCD was ever to find a running game this would be the ideal week. They need to control the ball, and take some of the pressure away from Jon Grant to be the sole source of offense. If there is one thing Grant has illustrated is that he's at his best in the team's toughest games, but possibly without Fells, and a Kays less than 100%, winning this week could be a challenge. The Aggies will need their offensive line to be at the top of their game on Saturday. The O-line has to control the line of scrimmage and allow the Aggies to develop some sort of ground game. Eastern Washington is not a team known much for their defense, allowing over 350 yards per game, including 160 rushing at 4.6 per carry. Nelson Doris, and Demario Warren must run well this weekend or this offense will be playing catchup all afternoon. And that's not a specialty of this Aggies team in 2005. The Eagles defense, led by all Big Sky linebacker Joey Cwik (82 tackles, 1.5 sacks), will be all about keeping Jon Grant from getting comfortable in the pocket. When he does, he can pick teams apart. If the Aggies are thrown off their game early, or fall behind by 10 points, it will be a very difficult game to win.

If you thought the Aggies offense had some key injuries its far worse on the defensive side of the ball. And that's not exactly good news when you're facing the guy I consider the best quarterback in all of I-AA. Erik Meyer comes into play this weekend second in total offense averaging 360 yards per game, and 4th in national efficiency at 170. He's got weapons all over the field, specifically running back Ryan Cole, and wide receivers Eric Kimble and Raul Vigil. Mole is closing in on 1000 yards rushing (864) having scored 14 touchdowns at 4.2 per carry. The wide receiver duo is averaging an eye-popping 210-yards per game between the two, having found the end-zone a combined 15 times. The Eagles offensive line is an experienced group used to giving Meyer plenty of time to make his reads. To boot, the senior is pretty mobile when moving around the pocket, which makes defending him even more problematic for defenses. If you get the drift, this offense can make life very difficult on the opposition. Normally with the accolades the UC Davis defense has racked up this season, including wins at Stanford, at North Dakota State, and against Cal Poly, this would make for a great battle. Afterall, UCD is 10th in overall defense (280 yds per game), and third in the nation against the rush (84.2). But the Aggies defensive group limps into this game. Having already lost Ryan Sharp for the year, both Pila Fatukala, and Michael Ng are both out this weekend leaving seven defensive lineman available for the game. The secondary is in just as much trouble. Corners Andy Sullivan and Derrick Daniels are both out for the season. Another corner Kyle Tarp won't be able to play this weekend, and starting safety Jonathan Barsi is questionable. This defense is very quick, and matches up well against anyone. But this weekend with the injuries all over the field this group is up against it. Depth is a major problem, which weighed in two weeks ago as the Aggies defensive line tired in the heat of Texas. The offense will have to control the ball to keep the defense off the field, and this Aggie group will need to force some turnovers to keep the Eagles from running up a big tally. In the end, the Eagles are the healthier bunch with a spot in the playoffs somewhat on the line. They have the slimmest of hope for an at-large birth, or need Montana State to beat Montana to get the Big Sky autobid. This is a difficult road trip for UC Davis, and the result won't be one Aggie fans like. Unless Montana State buries Montana earlier in the day, Erik Meyer will show just why he is as talented as he tosses three touchdowns en route to an easy win. Eastern Washington 34 UC Davis 21 (Note: If Montana State beat Montana, my pick is UC Davis to win. EWU would likely play minimal starters if they have clinched a birth.)

Game of the Week
#20 North Dakota State at #9 Southern Illinois

Bison offense vs. Southern Illinois defense After being shut down in consecutive weeks by Cal Poly and UC Davis, the Bison offense has more than found its rhythm. In the past three games North Dakota State has scored 37, 44, and 41 points en route to three blowout wins. This weekend the competition steps up a couple notches with Southern Illinois, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Bison offense will slump again. This Saluki group is giving up over 25 points a game, and nearly 400 yard per game. Pair that with the level the Bison offense has been playing at the past three weekends and it equals a formula for success. North Dakota State will set everything up on the ground with Kyle Steffes, who is the key to this offense. But in recent weeks Cinque Chapman is seeing more carries and his help in the backfield is providing a nice spark to an already dangerous running game. The Saluki front seven tasked with slowing the Bison rush is led by a pair of talented linebackers in Phillip Doyle, and Royal Whitaker, who have combined for over 100 tackles with 11 coming behind the line of scrimmage. Lorenzo Wims and Lionel Williams are the force along the line with 12.5 sacks on the season. This group's focus will be to slow the Bison run and keep the pressure on quarterback Steve Walker. Speaking of Walker, he may have the chance to prove he can again take this team on his back and win a game. While the Saluki's play the run fairly well (111 per game) they are less than stellar against the pass allowing 279 yards through the air. As Southern Illinois defenders load the box to focus on Steffes, they'll dare Walker to beat them through the air. If the Salukis can contain Steffes, Walker has to be more consistent throwing the ball to his receivers that will likely see man coverage most of the night. The Bison must get the short passing game clicking, which in turn should open up some of the deep routes as the defense is loosened up throughout the evening. If Steffes runs, the Bison are in good shape. If he's slowed, then we'll get another chance to see if Walker can do what he did so well last season: carry the team on his back. This offense can put up some big numbers against the Salukis, but Walker has to be on his game.

Salukis offense vs. North Dakota State defense
While the Salukis have been prone to giving up some yards on the defensive side of the ball, they more than make up for it offensively. In fact Southern Illinois comes into play averaging 434 yards (11th nationally) and 39.5 points per game (5th nationally). The leader of this offense is quarterback Joel Sambursky. All the four-year starter has done in his SIU career is become the all-time leader in completion percentage, touchdown passes, and passing yards. This week he heads into play having started 46 consecutive games, and is currently on the Payton Watch list, given to the top player in I-AA. After all the accolades I previously listed perhaps the most interesting stat is that the senior hasn't thrown for more than 276 yards this season, and has only cleared 245 twice this season. He's not the mold of an Erik Meyer or Travis Lulay in terms of putting up huge stats, but what he does is a tremendous job of leading the offense in an efficient manner, minimizing mistakes, making clutch plays, and most importantly, winning games. The quarterback is more than capable of putting up big numbers should his team need it but this offense is so dangerous because of their tremendous balance. Southern Illinois comes into play averaging 190 yards per game on the ground. Beyond a talented offensive line, the main reason the run game is so strong is the talents of running back Arkee Whitlock. The junior back is averaging over 128 yards per game, at an impressive clip of 5.7 per carry. Those numbers are good enough to place Whitlock as the 5th best rusher in the nation. It's no secret that this team is equally capable to beating an opponent by either means, which makes them difficult to defend. With this being the case, the Bison will look to their physical defensive line to do what it did last weekend against the Jacks. They need Justin Frick, Alvin Robinson, and the rest of the defensive line to win the battle up front. Last weekend their ability to bottle up the run was the biggest reason they won this side of the ball. Sambursky is a far better quarterback than the Jacks signal callers, so if the Bison can slow the run their work will not be done. Sambursky's an experienced quarterback that if given time will make plays. The only way to interrupt his rhythm is to keep him from getting any comfort in the pocket. Expect a number of blitzes from all areas of the field to attempt to knock the quarterback around, or at least make life tougher on him. Samburksy can make life difficult if give time so the Bison must get to him all evening to win this game.

X-Factor: Kyle Steffes, RB, North Dakota State. If we have learned anything over the past few weeks, it's that one stat will usually tell you if the Bison won or lost. And that's the performance of the rushing attack, namely Kyle Steffes. In the Bison's three losses, Steffes rushed for just 218 yards on 69 carries for an average of 3.2 per carry. In the seven wins, a different story - Steffes has nearly 800 yards (112.5 per game) for an average of nearly five yards per carry. If the Bison expect to go on the road and win -- in what amounts to a huge game for their opponent -- Steffes has to have a big game. If the junior back, who surpassed the 1000-yard mark a week ago, has a good game, the Bison will win. If the Salukis bottle him up like Montana State, Cal Poly, and UC Davis, the result will be the same as each of the afore mentioned games.

The Roundtable Says:
Kent Schmidt (5-3): This game has a lot riding on it for SIU in order to make the postseason so NDSU likely can be the team that comes in loose with really nothing to lose. However, I feel the Salukis are going rise up to make the playoffs for a third straight season but will be tested mightily by the Bison. I will take SIU by three. SIU 24 NDSU 21

Jeff Kolpack (5-5): NDSU is playing well again and this game could be closer than first thought. But I have to believe the Salukis' must-win situation to get into the playoff field will make a difference. SIU 21, NDSU 17.

Chris Solari (6-3): NDSU at Southern Illinois: Coming off a big interstate win over SDSU, Bison play playoff spoiler to close their season on a high note. NDSU 24, SIU 13.

Mike Mirer (5-5): The Bison are certainly capable of winning this game, but there's just too much riding on it for Southern Illinois. At home, the Salukis pull it out late and head into the postseason. Southern Ill 24, NDSU 21

The Bottom Line: Two years from now imagine the implications of a game between these two teams. These two ranked squads could both be vying for a playoff spot, increasing the exposure of non-conference games of this type late in the season. For now, the Salukis need a win for a playoff birth, while the Bison play for pride. Three weeks ago the Bison looked more than average, but have since rebounded in impressive means. Southern Illinois has no time to dwell on a tough one-point loss to Northern Iowa, or else they'll find themselves sitting home next weekend. These teams match up well, which should make for one heck of a regular season finale. I expect the Bison to will have to work a little harder than normal to run the ball, but that Steve Walker will throw the ball well against a porous Saluki secondary. In the same manner, the Bison's physical front seven will stymie Whitlock forcing Sambursky to become the playmaker. Ultimately, the Salukis need this game, and have to play with a sense of urgency. When the run games are neutralized, I think the veteran Sambursky will have one more bullet in the gun than the Walker. The Salukis win in nail-biter in the final minute. Southern Illinois 28 North Dakota State 25

Comments. Questions. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com.

Up Next: UNC @ UCD, and (hopefully) a Cal Poly playoff game preview.