Nov. 16, 2006

The Bottom Line - Week 11
By Chris Kelly

Halfway through the first quarter Cal Poly had jumped out to 14-0 lead over North Dakota State and the Bison were quickly trailing by double digits. Just like last week, the Bison were forced to come from behind and did just that dropping 51 unanswered points on one of the best defenses in the nation. The output led to a convincing 51-14 thrashing of the Mustangs last Saturday. The Bison scored 28 points in the 2nd quarter off touchdowns by Kyle Steffes, Kole Keckendorf, Pete Blincoe, and Jeremiah Wurzbacher. Steffes (25 for 127) and Blincoe (11 for 109) led the offensive charge combining to rush for over 200 yards.

CK's Take: It seems every time I doubt the Bison in a big game they prove me wrong. This week they just decided to prove me wrong in a big way. I don't think anyone could have expected the Bison to absolutely dominate the Mustangs. They did and they continue to lay claim to a potential #1 in the nation ranking. Most impressive was the fact that the Bison rushed for 324 yards and Steffes and Blincoe had huge days. A major reason those guys had big days was the Bison offensive line, who feasted on the Mustangs front seven like I haven't seen before. When an offensive line does what they did to a defense as talented as the Mustangs, they deserve some major recognition. Because offensive player of the week won't go to the Bison lineman I'll call them out here. Nate Safe, Jake Erickson, Zach Harrington, Jerrod Wagner, Adam Tadisch are the five Bison starters who had a major push on the Mustangs defensive line all afternoon. They helped the Bison average 6.2 per carry against a defense allowing just 2.9 per rush. Impressive. I honestly don't know if there is a team that could beat the Bison in the Fargo Dome in all of I-AA. The Bison focus now turns to South Dakota State and the Great West football conference championship which will be on the line next weekend.

As for Cal Poly, it was enough to feel the pain of being blown out on the road, but another to realize that hopes of a 2nd consecutive playoff birth went out the window as well. It all took place in one quarter, the 2nd when the defense allowed 28 points. The Mustangs committed key penalties, turned the ball over twice, and the Bison just moved the ball at will. Before Cal Poly could catch their breath they were trailing by two scores. The problem this offense has had all season, passing the football, came back to hurt them. Once the Bison has a multiple score lead the Mustangs were in trouble. Forced to throw the football, Matt Brennan went only 3 of 8. He only threw the ball eight times because the Mustangs had four three and out's before finally getting a first down on their final drive trailing 51-14. Coach Ellerson dropped a telling statistic on the conference call this week: the Mustangs had 7 offensive snaps between them leading 14-0 and trailing 34-14. That's brutal. The Mustangs won this season because their defense was so stout. On Saturday, the defense couldn't get the job done and the offense could not pick up the slack. Still an excellent season for Cal Poly -they'll be back in the hunt again next season.

Other Games

South Dakota State 31 Southern Utah 21 Quick Hits: The Jacks jumped out early 21-0 and were able to hold off Southern Utah in the 2nd half, who twice pulled within seven points. The Jacks out-gained the T-Birds by 115 yards in the first half, and then watched SUU dominate the second half with a 317-153 yardage advantage. Kyle Coop and Wes Marshall both had big halves accounting for a touchdown each. But Anthony Watson's big day on the ground was too much to overcome. SDSU wins for the 7th time in a row and plays for a chance to win the Great West next week.

Top 25 Ballot

The Bison win this week was so impressive I moved them up two spots despite no losses ahead of them. Here is how my top 5 shakes out: App St, North Dakota State, Montana, UMass, Youngstown. I dropped Cal Poly to #16 while moving South Dakota State up to #19. An over ranked San Diego team remains #23 in my poll.

Week 11 Games

I split the two games last weekend hitting South Dakota State's win but badly missing North Dakota hammering Cal Poly. The 1-1 week runs the season total 26-14 (.650) easily the worst percentage in three years of doing this column. This week the Causeway is the under card to a matchup of the Dakota's squaring off for the Great West Conference title.

Savannah State (2-8) at Cal Poly (6-4) The mismatch of the week takes place this weekend in San Luis Obispo as Cal Poly faces a 2-8 Savannah State team. To understand how this game shapes up take a look at Coastal Carolina, a team who is consistently flirting with the top 25 rankings, who beat Savannah State 66-6 just two weeks ago. The Tigers come into play averaging just 218 yards per game, 121st out of 122 teams in total offense. Now they face a Poly defensive scheme that will be extremely hard to prepare for in one week. They also allow over 180 yards rushing per week at 4.6 per clip. That means the Mustangs James Noble will have a huge game this weekend and Cal Poly should be able to win easily. The Mustangs might score 50 in any other week but I wonder what kind of hangover this group has after a tough loss ending their playoff hopes. Cal Poly will start slow then get in rolling in the 2nd quarter. Coach Ellerson should have a chance, at home, to empty the bench and get some of the young faces on the roster plenty of time on the field as well as give his seniors a nice goodbye. Cal Poly rolls behind a huge game from Brennan and Noble on the ground. Cal Poly 30 Savannah State 3

Southern Utah (3-7) at Southern Illinois (7-3) Southern Utah has a tough road trip to close out the season as they take on the Saluki's of Southern Illinois who come off their best football game of the season spanking Northern Iowa 47-23. SIU is still hanging in for a playoff birth and needs another win to make sure they are given a birth next Sunday. Offensively, stud back Arkee Whitlock leads the Saluki's with over 1300 yards (137 per game) and 18 touchdowns. Nick Hill provides nice balance throwing the football at 142 yards per game, 11 td's to just 3 int's. This offense averages nearly 380 yards per game, good enough for 18th nationally. Looking at the way South Dakota State ran the ball on the Thunderbirds, I expect Whitlock to have a solid game. The Thunderbirds will have to sell out against the run and hope that man coverage on the outside can hold up against Hill and the passing game. That's all predicated that eight or nine in the box can stop Whitlock. In order to win this game, SUU has to have a big game from Wes Marshall. They are going to need to run the ball and control the clock, but Marshall is going to have to make some plays with his arm and his legs. Last weekend, the Thunderbirds dominated the 2nd half against SDSU but were too far behind to complete the comeback. Marshall has to start off strong and make big plays out of the box and SUU needs to create some turnovers otherwise it could end up a long road trip for the T-Birds. This is a tough way to end the season against a physical team who runs the ball well. Southern Illinois 31 Southern Utah 13

Sacramento State (4-6) at UC Davis (4-5) Even though each team is under the .500 mark heading into the game it won't take much motivation to get up for the 53rd Causeway Classics matching up rivals who are only about 20 minutes down the road from each other. Sacramento State is fresh off a tough battle against a good Portland State team, while UCD comes into the game following their 2nd bye of the season. The Aggies are still smarting from two double digit leads that were erased by South Dakota State and North Dakota State as the Aggies have been unable to finish games. The Aggies defense should be licking their chops facing an offense that is only averaging 238 yards a game, led by quarterback Marcel Marquez. Marquez has been decent this season throwing for over 1500 yards with 10 touchdowns. However, the problem is the 12 picks and the fact the Hornets have no running game at all. They rank 3rd to last in all of I-AA rushing for less than 70 yards per game. Don't expect much success this weekend either against an Aggie front seven that has played fairly well against the run all season. The Hornets ability to score on this Aggie offense will be dictated by Sac St's ability to pass the ball. The Aggies will know from watching the film that they should be able to control the run and then look to get after Marquez with a variety of blitzes. UC Davis will look to force more mistakes as they consistently put the Hornets in 2nd and 3rd and long downs. Unless the Hornets can find a way to run the ball, this offense probably won't be able to do much against this defense on Saturday.

As far as the Aggies offense goes, it's been a tale of two halves each of the last two weeks and UCD needs to play a full game badly. This week they'll face a pretty capable Hornet defense, which is easily the strength of their team. They've been pretty good against the run holding teams to 124 per game at 3.5 per carry. Cyrus Mulitalo has been the leader of this defense with some outstanding numbers. He has 112 tackles and 11.5 for loss and seems to get his nose in on just about every play from his linebacker spot. He's been helped by Mike Brannon and James Henderson who have combined for 10 sacks. The area teams have been able to exploit is the passing game which is allowing nearly 240 yards per game. Coach Bob Biggs will run the ball to try to establish some sort of ground game but I expect a similar gameplan to what fans saw in the 1st half of the NDSU game. The Aggies come out throwing early and often then begin to mix in the run/draws to keep the defense off balance. The key for the Aggies is Jon Grant's composure running the offense. At times, he looks unstoppable while other times he looks clearly rattled throwing off his back foot and locking in on receivers. Grant is a tough kid whose been forced to win games without the help of a running game so a little slack has to be cut. But when you see how well he operates the Aggies offense at times, it's hard not to expect perfection. What UCD needs this weekend is just a little better execution and consistency from the leader of their team. Star Tony Kays has to be involved but the Aggies are better off when Kays ends up in the 5-7 catch range with Chris Carter and Brandon Rice getting involved as well. All three players are very talented, Grant just need to keep them involved. With all the weapons UCD has and the lack of weapons for the Hornets it's hard not to imagine a big Aggie win. But this Hornet team has been a little more consistent this season in hanging in with some tough competition. They also know what this game means and realize they've haven't won a causeway in years. The Aggies and Grant will win this game with Chris Carter's huge day, but the Hornets keep this game more competitive than in recent years. UC Davis 27 Sacramento State 17

Game of the Week

#18 South Dakota State (7-3, 3-0) at #4 North Dakota State (9-1, 3-0) The Jacks and Bison meet for the third time as members of the Great West and competing for the Dakota Marker. The last two meetings were split with the Bison winning convincingly 41-17 last season. This year's game has much more than the Dakota Marker on the line as the winner will capture the Great West Football conference title.

Jackrabbits offense vs. North Dakota State defense The Bison defense just continues to get better. When you think they're about to break, they come back even stronger. Two weeks ago, UC Davis ran and passed all over them en route to a 24-0 lead. In the second half the Aggies did absolutely nothing offensively and were held to 37 yards of offense. Last week, Cal Poly dropped over 100 yards of offense and two touchdowns before the Bison blinked then followed that with a shutout the final three quarters and just 61 yards. This team is physical and has linebackers and defensive backs who rally aggressively to the ball. So how does South Dakota State go about attacking this offense? No one has proven to have an ability to do it consistently over a long period of time but with a competitor like Andy Kardoes the Jacks have a chance. Kardoes is a risk taker and early in the season tried to do too much to help his team win game. Most of the time that can be construed as a negative but this week, I think Coach Stig has to just turn Kardoes loose and let him go nuts. The Jacks are up against it this week facing the best defense they've seen all year so they need Kardoes to play as he did in the second half of the Cal Poly and UC Davis games for an entire game. Cut the kid loose and let him rip downfield. Sure, the Jacks are going to give the ball to Anthony Watson which may work initially until the Joe Mays, Ramon Humber, and Mike Maresh settle in. The Bison rely on their Tampa two (cover 2) defense which puts pressure on their front four to be very strong against the run. Expect to see some more guys creep into the box this weekend to focus on Watson after some initial success. Then it will all come down to Kardoes and his ability to make plays with his arm. This kid is gritty so NDSU can't let him get loose on the ground either. If Kardoes is on this weekend, he'll keep his team in the game all day. If the Bison force some mistakes early, this game will get away from the Jacks much like last season.

Bison offense vs. South Dakota State defense How do the Jacks continue to win? They barely out gain their opponents (332 vs. 313), they barely outscore them (21 vs. 19), they have a negative turnover margin (-5), and are in the bottom half of the nation in sacks allowed. Somehow, though, the Jacks just get it done. They will allow some big plays but always seem to make the plays when it counts most. They may lose the turnover battle but any turnovers created are always at the most opportunistic time. Justin Kubesh, Marty Kranz, and Andrew Hoogeveen have emerged as a solid trio at backer and along with the defensive line's maturity have been the key to the success of this unit. Now they get the challenge of trying to stop the Bison juggernaut offense and led by quarterback Steve Walker. This group comes into play 6th nationally averaging a cool 400 yards per game. It's tough to figure out how to stop these guys because their balance is so strong. The Jacks have to focus on the run first. If they get pounded up front by a physical Bison line they'll be in trouble and the points will pile up quickly. SDSU has to slow the run and force Walker to pass to win the game. I've said it before - he's not a guy that gets fazed when made one dimensional. But he can go through stretches where he's thrown off his game (See: 1st half UCD game) and the opposition can capitalize. Slow the run, and hope Walker is off his game isn't exactly a game plan to hang your hat on but this offense is playing at such a level the Jacks are almost relegated to it. They should pick some key spots and bring some different blitz looks at Walker hoping that they can get to him and disrupt this offense. But make those blitzes count or Walker and his wide receivers will exploit holes in the defense. The Jacks need to come up with a great team effort on defense this week and keep Walker from finding comfort. If they can manage to throw the offense off a bit, they'll have a shot to keep them from going off.

Key Matchup: Bison offensive line vs. Jacks defensive line. Coach Steigelmeier was asked earlier this year what some of the things were that helped turn things around after a rough start this season and his first answer was the play of the defensive line. The Jackrabbits defensive line, Jason Bonwell, Eric Shroeder, Mitch Pontrelli, and Danny Batten, have played so well this season helping the Jacks to consistently control the run and pressure the quarterback. The four linemen have combined for 31 tackles for loss and will be as challenged as they have all season facing this Bison offensive line. The NDSU front five is fresh off a dominating game against Cal Poly where they blew the Mustangs off the ball helping the Bison to over 300 yards rushing. Cal Poly's Rich Ellerson was very candid this week about the NDSU line's effort last week. He said in six years his team had not been physically dominated like that including some of the D-I teams the Mustangs faced, including Toledo. That's very high praise for a group playing at a terrific level right now. Kyle Steffes doesn't need much help but as this line has matured this season the running lanes seem to be even bigger. This is pure and simple: If NDSU does what they have done most of the year in terms of owning the line of scrimmage; they'll control the clock, run the ball, and win this game easily. South Dakota State's front four has to have a strong game and disrupt the rhythm the Bison offensive line has been in all season.

The Roundtable says:

Terry Vandrovec, Argus Leader (3-0) "NDSU is the better team on film, on paper and in Fargo. The Jacks have been counted out all season. What's one more time? NDSU 31, SDSU 17."

Kent Schmidt, I-aa.org (5-3) "NDSU played there most complete game last week in the blowout win over Cal Poly. SDSU has not had very many easy wins but have won seven games in a row and that can not be overlooked. I just don't think the Jackrabbits can keep up with the Bison, however, especially in the Fargodome. NDSU is playing for a Top two or three year end ranking and I don't they will be denied. I like NDSU by 17. NDSU 38 SDSU 21"

Jeff Kolpack, Fargo Forum (3-6) "Somebody's magical ride is going to come to an end. The framer's of this Dakota Marker couldn't have imagined this kind of hype -- and if they did they were stretching the truth. In this series of late, the home team has been tough. NDSU 28, SDSU 21."

Mike Mirer, Davis Enterprise (5-4) "The Bison team I saw in the second half at Toomey, save for maybe TCU, are the best team I've seen in person this year. They'll win a much-deserved league title. NDSU 31, SDSU 21"

The Bottom Line: This is how it's supposed to be - two teams that are undefeated playing late in the season and the winner is the outright champion. No ties. No share of the title. The fact that the Jacks are even here after the way the season started is amazing. The Jacks are one of the season's best stories and every time someone wants to count them out they find a way to overcome. This weekend is the weekend the fun stops for the Jacks, however. They're running into a buzz saw in Fargo in the form of the Bison. This team is one of the top two or three teams in all of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) and would have a legitimate shot to win the national championship, if eligible. They play ridiculous defense. Their offense is balanced in that it can hit you quick strike via Steve Walker's arm, or wear you down behind a physical line and powerful back. Their special teams and home field advantage only make the mountain much tougher to climb. The Bison put a stamp on a magical season this weekend by clinching the league's title. Another impressive win will vault the Bison to #1 in the nation in my poll, probably where they belong anyway. North Dakota State 37 South Dakota State 14.

NEXT WEEK: Q & A with Great West Commissioner Ed Grom discussing the future of the Great West.

Comments. Questions. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com