NOTE: This week's edition of The Bottom Line was posted late because I forgot to post to the site. My apologies to the Great West fans and to columnist Chris Kelly. I'm sorry -- Colin McDonough

The Bottom Line Archives

The Bottom Line- Week 10

By Chris Kelly

Cal Poly and UC Davis went toe-to-toe trading punches all night long on Saturday night, in what turned out to be as good as advertised Great West Football Conference game. In the end it was UC Davis, and quarterback Jon Grant, who delivered the knockout punch as Grant hit Tony Kays for a game-winning 14-yard score. The score came with 13 seconds to play, and sealed a 36-33 victory over the Mustangs. The victory clinches the Aggies 35^th consecutive winning season.

The Aggies jumped out to a 21-7 halftime lead, but the fireworks didn't really begin until the second half when two solid defenses gave up a combined 41 points. Cal Poly roared back with two scores to tie the game. One was a big play from Anthony Garnett to Jonah Russell, while the other was set up on another long pass connection between the two. After a Byungwoo Yoon field goal, the two teams exchanged touchdowns in the 4^th quarter. The Aggies then had a big defensive stand after a Jon Grant fumble in Aggie territory. UCD held the Mustangs to a field goal keeping the game within one score. The Aggies drove the field but as Kevin Freeman appeared to be heading into the end zone to give the Ags the lead, he was stripped and Cal Poly recovered. Another big defensive stop gave UCD the ball at their own 46 with under a minute to go. This drive culminated with the dramatic Grant-to-Kays touchdown.

CK's Take: Kevin Freeman's critical fumble seemed as if it would again call this part of the column to speak to Aggie mistakes which cost them another close game. When you think about the 14 penalties, the three turnovers, and really no running game from the running backs it's a darn impressive win. The reason: Jon Grant. Grant absolutely diced up a very good Cal Poly defense for a career high 393 yards, and two touchdowns. He also ran for over 30+ yards. (over 85 positive when sacks are taken out) Certainly the biggest game of Grant's career and he couldn't have picked a better time to deliver. This will be the game that fans will look back to as the defining game in Grant's career. To do what he did on Saturday, take the hits he did on Saturday and still perform against this defense will open some eyes around the I-AA football world. That final drive down the field will be one that is long remembered around the Aggies program.

As for Cal Poly- now damage assessment time. First to the negatives, which start with the defense. What happened? We knew that Davis was one of the better offensive teams in the nation but to give up nearly 200 yards over your average and see Jon Grant run as well as he did, teams now may see how you go about beating the Mustangs. The conference race is also wide open again, and where does the playoff status of the Mustangs sit? They have a huge game this weekend in Eastern Washington that will be a big determinant in whether the Mustangs play on. Now to the positives. The Mustangs were more than solid on the offensive side of the ball putting up nearly 500 yards of offense themselves. Anthony Garnett played a very good football game and put up some huge numbers. Maybe more impressive was the fact that the Mustangs trailed 21-7 and came back. At the time I had doubted whether they had it in them based on what we've seen from their offense this season. To see them come back is a big confidence boost for their offense that they can rely on them if their defense isn't fully on its game.

Boy what a difference a brief intermission can make in a game. North Dakota State had a lackluster first half, and trailed Northwestern State by ten. The Bison were a different team in the second half, scoring 23 point unanswered, and defeating No. 15 Northwestern State. The Bison used two second half Steve Walker touchdown passes to grab the lead, and then put the game away with a Cinque Chapman 3-yard run and a Dwight Summerville safety. Leading the way defensively for North Dakota State was Craig Dahl with nine tackles.

CK's Take: I just mentioned what big individual performance Jon Grant had against Cal Poly. As a team this game one has to go down as a season defining win for the Bison. What else can you call it? The Bison were a play or two short last week from knocking off a top ten Cal Poly team, and this week bounce back against a tough Northwestern bunch while starting a freshman quarterback. And for a while it looked as if I'd be writing about a stagnant offense and that freshman QB as the Bison mustered just 47 yards in the first half, a chunk of that coming on a throwback touchdown catch by quarterback Steve Walker. But what a tale of halves for the Bison. After giving up 243 yards of offense to the Demons in the first half, this game was headed for an easy Northwestern victory. Whatever happened in the locker room during halftime worked. The Bison put together probably their best half of football in rolling up 23 unanswered points. The defense was equally impressive allowing no points, and just 83 yards of total offense.

So how did the highly anticipated debut of Steve Walker fare? He's gets an A, no doubt. Walker caught a touchdown pass, and was an efficient 8-11 for 131 yards and two scores. The Bison coaches opened up the play calling a bit with some trickery and went down the field a couple times, neither of which we had seen much this season. But they weren't overly aggressive with Walker. He only threw 11 passes, and made the most of each throw. The Bison had attempted at least 18 passes in each game prior to Saturday. They focused on the run, (runs: 43, passes: 12) allowed Walker to make plays when they needed one, and used an excellent defensive effort (and 3 turnovers) to give them excellent field position. The Bison game plan worked almost to perfection in the second half. They may have just found their quarterback of the future.

Down in Georgia, South Dakota State found out just how good this Georgia Southern team is as they Eagles took it to the Jacks 63-7. SDSU gave up 467 yards of rushing to the GSU option. In all, GSU rolled up over 600 yards of total offense. Brad Nelson threw for 182 yards and one score in the loss.

Quick Hits: This is pretty much what I expected, and what most fans thought would happen. This isn't anything to hang the heads, however. This Georgia Southern team is playing ridiculous football, and may just be the best team in the nation. The Jacks can't let this loss pour over into next week as SDSU has a chance to finish the season with three more wins.

The final game of the weekend was Southern Utah taking it to the NAIA Montana-Western 34-0. Southern Utah rolled up some huge offensive numbers as the T-Birds put up over 614 yards of offense, a school record. Casey Rehrer was a big piece of the offense throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns. The Thunderbirds passed for 217 yards of offense in the first quarter alone. The Southern Utah defense limited the Bulldogs offense to just 20 yards of offense in the first quarter, and 45 for the 1^st half. Marques Harris led the defensive charge with six tackles, including 4 for loss, and two sacks.

GWFC News of Interest

- Here a look at this week's rankings:

Don Hansen: Cal Poly (9), UC Davis (19), North Dakota State (21)

The Sports Network: Cal Poly (11), UC Davis (23)

ESPN/USA Today: Cal Poly (11), UC Davis (23)

- On Wednesday, the Sports Network released another revised version of the players on the Walter Payton, (top player in I-AA football) and Buck Buchanan (top defensive player in I-AA) watch lists. Vincent Jackson, and Jordan Beck

remained on their respective lists, but Cal Poly's defensive end Chris Gocong was added to the most recent update. The final lists will be out November 22^nd.

Week 10 Games

UC Davis has a bye this weekend while all the other teams are in action including one conference game. The other three games pit a GWFC member against an old D-II conference foe, and two games between the Great West and Big Sky. Last week things got back on track as I posted a 3-1 record, missing only the Aggies win over the Mustangs. That puts the season total at 28-10. (.736)

Augustana @ South Dakota State

With the difficulty of last week's blowout loss behind them, the Jackrabbits get more of a break this weekend. SDSU heads home to play Augustana who was a former North Central Conference foe only a season ago when South Dakota State was a part of the conference. Augustana enters play 3-7 on the year, but 0-6 in NCC play.

A year ago these teams met in conference play and SDSU topped the Vikings by 42-22. Augie scored the first 10 points before SDSU outscored the Viks 42-12 over the course of the final three quarters. Brad Nelson threw for four scores and 278 yards. The only thing that has changed from last season is that these two teams have grown farther apart in terms overall talent. Now South Dakota State gets Augie at home, and you can bet Brad Nelson will be looking to top those impressive numbers of last season in his final home game of the year. There's not much to debate here, as SDSU rolls, and Nelson find Josh Davis twice for scores. Look for the Jacks to get out early and cruise the rest of the way. South Dakota State 47, Augustana 14

North Dakota State @ Weber State

The Bison resume the battle with the Big Sky, a battle which is led by the Great West by a slim 5-4 margin. This week they travel to Utah to meet the Weber State Wildcats, who have struggled this season. WSU is 1-8 having underachieved from some of the preseason expectations this season. The Wildcats have already fallen to GWFC members Southern Utah and UC Davis as a part of a season opening eight game losing streak. Last week, however, WSU may have turned the corner a bit winning their first game 26-14 over Idaho State.

Coming into the season Weber State felt very good about their situation in the backfield with star runner Nick Chournos returning. Last season Chournos went for over 1600 yards, but this season has only 498 yards in five games. Still a solid season at nearly 100 per game, but not nearly the dominant year of just a season ago. Part of that is the inexperience across the offensive line, which hasn't been as strong of a unit this season as the Wildcats had become accustomed. Without the consistent ability to dominate in the run game, Weber State has not been able to get by on mediocre quarterback play. As teams have been able to at least contain Chournos and the run, the offense has fallen all on the passing game. That passing game has been run by three different quarterbacks due to some inconsistency in the early part of the year. Last week it was Ian Pizarro, who to this point has the best completion percentage of the three as a bad 45 percent rate. Pizarro has thrown the ball 70 times this season, and will be tested this week against a quick Bison defense. With the Bison already playing so well against the run, this is a matchup the Bison have to really like. If North Dakota State can continue to stuff the run, you have to like their chances against an inexperienced Pizarro, who starts for just the third time in his career. The WSU quarterback could find himself running from Dwight Summerville and Isaac Snell quite often come Saturday. It's especially scary when you consider that WSU has allowed 35 sacks this season. For a team that has been so opportunistic at forcing turnovers, this side of the ball seems to heavily favor North Dakota State. Look for the Bison to win the turnover battle again this weekend against a predictable Weber offense. It will be Chournos on first down, and if you can keep him limited then you force the Wildcats, not a strong passing team, into obvious passing situations. Can you say Bison sacks and picks?

As for the Bison O, it will again be the freshman Steve Walker at the helm. Last week Walker was limited in his opportunities to throw the ball, which is something that could change this weekend. First, the Wildcats allow almost 200 yards rushing per game which means that heavy doses of Kyle Steffes and Cinque Chapman. With the way the Bison offensive line has been playing, it will be interesting to watch the battle against the WSU front four, namely the ends. The main threats on the Wildcats defensive line are defensive junior ends Brady Fosmark, and Shane Barkdull, who have combined for 7.5 sacks. The two make for a dangerous combo, and the Bison need to keep consistent double teams on Fosmark. He comes off a week in which he was named Big Sky defensive player of the week with nine tackles, two sacks, and a forced fumble last week. He is the one person who can really disrupt an offense's timing. If NDSU can control Fosmark, look for BOTH Steffes and Chapman to get close to 100 each. With a successful run game, the play action pass should be plenty available. The coaches have to be pleased with the way their young quarterback played against a very tough defense, and thus I expect Coach Craig Bohl to get an early lead and take a couple shots downfield again this weekend. The difference this week is as Coach Bohl feels more of a comfort level with Walker, he'll open up the game plan and allow his youngster to throw the ball 20 times. I expect that the Bison will get very close to that excellent balance they possess on offense averaging both 186 on the ground and through the air. The Bison should be able to get out to a lead, and thus let Walker rip a few times and let those wide receivers stretch it out. Walker throws for a score, as the freshman puts together another strong outing. North Dakota State 28 Weber State 14

Southern Utah @ Northern Colorado

Southern Utah travels to Greeley, Colo., to take on the Bears as each is looking for their second conference win. The difference between the two is that the Bears are also looking for their second total win while SUU enters play at an even 4-4. But while the Bears search for their second win, they still have more significant life in the conference race as the Bears are tied with both UC Davis and Cal Poly with just one conference loss.

A win this week means the Bears offense must be clicking which has been something that hasn't been easy this season. Andre Wilson, the leading rushing in the Great West, is back this week after missing the Sam Houston State with an injury. In his spell, Jahir Waterman performed superbly rushing for over 100 yards. Maybe not by design, Waterman has created a nice problem for UNC, as the Bears now know they have two more than capable backs. The problem for the Bears this weekend, as it has been all season, is at quarterback. I've exhausted Tony Christensen's up and downs, but now his availability is in question after suffering a knee injury two weeks ago. Currently, he's questionable and will go if he can. If not it will be Nick Hager, who has only thrown 23 passes. The one thing we do know- Vincent Jackson is the star of this offense, and whoever is tossing the rock this weekend will need to look to him often. Jackson averages 140 yards per game, and will get at least that this weekend. The key area to watch this weekend will be the battle up front, where the Bears offensive line will be challenged by the front seven of the Thunderbirds. That front seven is a quick group, who gets to the quarterback often. For an offensive line that has struggled as much as the Bears have in allowing sacks, as well as the questions at quarterback this side of the ball does not favor the Bears.

Southern Utah will again look to their guy Casey Rehrer to deliver another big game and lead them to victory. While the defense has been consistent all year, so has Rehrer on the offensive side of the ball. The senior still leads the league in total offense averaging 309 per game, and this week finds himself up against a defense that allows over 390 per game, last in the conference. Where the damage is typically done against the Bears defense is with the pass where teams are putting up over 250 yards per game, something that probably won't change this weekend. SUU will run the ball with Ryan Filipe, but probably find their best success when Rehrer has the ball in his hands and is throwing or running with it. The Bears have to find a way to contain Rehrer's running ability and force him to be a pocket quarterback. If they can do that, they can limit the damage and make it somewhat uncomfortable for him. The Bears defensive line has to get pressure in bunches on Rehrer as well. This can at least slow SUU's offensive movement. Everything in this game seems to point to Southern Utah being able to win this game. The biggest advantage seems to be the T-Birds defensive front against the Bears offensive line. What I have seen over the past few weeks though still leads me to believe the Bears have something left in the tank. They are moving the ball on very good defenses, but continue to shoot themselves in the foot with mistakes. I don't think they can fully slow SUU's offense but with a bye week will certainly have some new wrinkles on defense that will stall some SUU drives. On the other side of the ball the Bears can score if they can establish a solid run game, and get the ball to Vincent Jackson. I am not as worried about the sack problem this week because I do think that Andre Wilson will have a big game and force the defense to respect the run. This should take some pressure off the Bears quarterbacks to make some plays. SUU will put up some nice offensive numbers, but I think that all the tough games over the past few weeks, and the bye open up a perfect opportunity for UNC to pull an upset. Plus the Bears play at home, and it's time for them to put together a complete game. Vincent Jackson goes for another 200 yard performance as the Bears finally get that elusive second win. Northern Colorado 31, Southern Utah 28

Game of the Week

#11 Cal Poly @ #21 Eastern Washington

Trends. Cal Poly travels to Cheney Washington to meet Eastern Washington in its final home game of the year. This will be the third meeting of the two schools, as they played in both 1994 and 1995. The Eagles won 61-7 in the Mustangs first game at the I-AA level, and Cal Poly returned the favor a year later, 52-35. EWU enters play at 6-3 having lost to Nicholls State, Air Force and Montana.

Mustang Offense vs. Eagles Defense. Cal Poly's offense really found its groove last weekend, and would like to continue the trend this weekend. Mustangs quarterback Anthony Garnett threw for nearly 400 yards last weekend. The amazing part is Garnett missed two drives with a strained quad, before returning in the second half. Garnett will be ready to go this weekend to lead a Cal Poly team ranked 41^st in I-AA, rolling up 380 yards a game. Much of that statistic is due to three tremendous offensive game in which the Mustangs were nearly unstoppable. Coach Rich Ellerson will throw a little of everything at the Eagles this weekend. They'll feature some option with Garnett, run the ball straight ahead with tailback Geno Randle, and of course stretch the field with some of the guys on the outside. In two of his four starts Garnett has cleared 300 yards, and if he does so this weekend Cal Poly will be in excellent shape. Last weekend Garnett had four big plays all over forty yards. As UC Davis focused on stopping the run they loaded the box, and left their cornerbacks on islands. Garnett was able to take some chances on the deep ball allowing his wide receivers to make plays in man to man coverage. This weekend EWU will certainly focus on the run, but will give some help in the secondary to their corners, which means that throwing the ball deep won't be as easy as last weekend. Up front the big trio of defenders the Mustangs will need to keep an eye on are linebackers Joey Cwik, Doug Vincent, and defensive lineman Tom Finnerty. The three have combined for 141 tackles, including 22.5 for loss. The Mustangs will look to get their tailback Geno Randle going to open things up for Garnett. They have been missing that big game from their running backs, and the offense could certainly use it. If the Mustangs can run the ball, look for Cal Poly to have plenty of offensive success. If it all falls on Garnett, the offense will likely struggle.

Eagles Offense vs. Mustang Defense. Offensively, the Eagles are a dangerous bunch. They lead the Big Sky with 450 yards per game, and are 9^th nationally scoring nearly 37 points per game. Eastern Washington is led by Walker Payton candidate Erik Meyer, who is one of the national leaders in passing efficiency, and throws for nearly 250 yards per game. His biggest target is Eric Kimble who is averaging 96 yards per game and has already found the end zone ten times this season. The Eagles aren't one-dimensional either, as they chip in 193 yards rushing per game, led mostly by Darius Washington. If it's not clear this team has some explosive power. For the second straight week, the Mustangs see another potent offense to test their top notch defense. We know all about Cal Poly's defense, especially how opportunistic this team is having picked off 18 passes already this season. The question is how does this tough defensive group respond after what happened last Saturday? I know that the 36 points and well over 400 yards of offense that Cal Poly gave up won't sit well with this group, and I fully expect them to respond. The Eagles will try to run with Washington early, and will find out what others before them have learned the hard way; you don't run well against this defense. Then it falls on the Eagle offensive line, and Erik Meyer shoulders to make some plays. If Meyer plans to build the case for the Walker Payton award, he'll get his chance this weekend to prove himself against a very physical defense.

Key Matchup. Erik Meyer, QB, Eastern Washington vs. Cal Poly defensive line. Eagles coach Paul Wulff has something valuable in his hands this week, the UC Davis game tape. That film is the roadmap to beating Cal Poly, which becomes so valuable because it was something no one could figure out. The Aggies running backs didn't have much success, (2.1 per carry) and Cal Poly was able to put pressure on UCD quarterback Jon Grant and knock him around. Then how exactly did the Aggies win? The Aggies game plan added in a number of designed runs by the mobile quarterback Jon Grant. Even though the backs weren't getting it done, Grant was able to put up some nice gains and run for 88 yards with sacks factored out. Poly still got to the Grant, and Chris Gocong, Chris White, and Kelly Turbin will get to Meyer this weekend. Grant's ability to run kept the linebackers from playing pass every down. It made them respect the run, and picked up some key first downs. This weekend Meyer is going to face a fierce rush, one that can completely break down an offense. Don't be surprised if we see Coach Wulff adds some plays designed for his quarterback to run a bit, especially after seeing how the Aggies moved so efficiently last Saturday with this formula. Beyond that, the Mustang defense is going to bring it, and it becomes Meyer's job to hang tough, make his reads, take the big hit, and still deliver the ball. If the Cal Poly front seven starts disrupting the timing, and forces Meyer into a quick decision, the game heavily favors the Cal Poly. Meyer is a tough quarterback who can make big plays when his team needs it. They will need it this weekend.

X-Factor. Darrell Jones, WR/RS, Cal Poly. If there is one guy on either team that can play a huge role in this game, it's the multi-versatile Jones. Coming into play this week Jones is 4^th in DI-AA in all-purpose yards with 189 per game. He averages 91 receiving yards per game, with a gaudy 18.7 per catch average. And to be honest, as Anthony Garnett goes, so does Jones. In Garnett's four starts, he's put up huge games in two of them. In those two games, Jones is averaging 157 yards per game. In the two games where Garnett struggled, Jones managed just 18 yards per game. The two have worked hard together on timing, and if Garnett is on his game on Saturday, watch out! When Jones get the ball in his hands he's as dangerous as they come with his speed. We know how dangerous he is in open space because the other 98 all purpose yards per game come via the return game. Jones has over 650 yards of return yards highlighted by a 21 yard kickoff return average, a 89-yard punt return for a touchdown. The Eagles have to roll coverage Jones' way whenever possible, and kick away from him on special teams. If you let him, he'll make himself the deciding factor in this game.

The Roundtable Says:

Kent Schmidt: (6-2) : "The Mustang defense maybe the key in this game.  Last week, 
they gave up 36 points to UC Davis, which is very unlike what we have seen prior to 
that game.  I think the game will be a low scoring, defensive battle with Cal Poly coming 
away with a big road victory to sure-up their playoff spot. I will take the Mustangs by 
three. Cal Poly 20, Eastern Washington 17"

Jeff Kolpack: (5-3) : "I'm still going with Cal Poly to make the playoffs. The Mustangs are due after all of these years. Cal Poly 22, Eastern Washington 15."

Chris Solari: (6-2) : "Think the Mustangs won't be a bit peeved after last week? Not just with the loss, but by giving up a season-high 36 points as well. EWU has a pretty strong offense, but Cal Poly's continues to improve with its staunch defense that has already handled Idaho State and Montana State. Make this No. 3 over Big Sky opponents, but not without a fight. Cal Poly 28, Eastern Washington 27."

Mike Mirer: (8-0) : "Could there be worse time for Cal Poly to go on a losing streak?
Eastern Washington resembles the UC Davis team that beat the Mustangs last week,
except that the Eagles have a consistent running game. Cal Poly needs it offense to score
points, something it did last week by just lofting balls up and letting its talented receivers
run under them. At more than an interception a game, I like EWU's secondary and with a
good defensive line they may be able to devote more players to pass coverage. The
Mustangs, which like UCD also fell from the ranks of the unbeaten in a game it should
have won then let the next one slip away as well, feel the hangover this week. At 7-2
there will still be time for Poly to right the ship. Eastern Washington 28, Cal Poly 24"

The Bottom Line: Wow is this an important game for these two football teams. With the loss last week, Cal Poly is tied for first in the Great West but still has a chance to share, if not win the championship outright. Eastern Washington, on the other hand, trails Montana State by a game in the Big Sky race, but has the Bobcats on the schedule next week. Both teams have huge conference game forthcoming, so neither can afford to look ahead in the slightest. All this aside, both teams are trying to make the playoffs. Montana State can win their league and get in with an automatic birth, but Cal Poly is not afforded that opportunity as a part of a new conference. A loss could cost the Mustangs the playoffs. After losing their first game last week, they face a team very similar in makeup as the Aggies, and have to do so on the road. Eastern Washington is a hot football team, and Cal Poly might be catching them at the wrong time. The Eagles are explosive and will make turn in some big plays. Conversely, I can never discount this defense as they'll contribute with some key plays of their own. I don't think Eastern Washington will come close to their 36 point per game average. But this offense will score some points, so can the Mustangs counter? It will depend on Anthony Garnett's as it will fall on the junior quarterbacks shoulders to win this game. Oh, did I mention the two games he's struggled this year were his only two road starts? Make it three, as the Eagles make just one more play. Eastern Washington 23, Cal Poly 20

Questions. Comments. Email Chris @ gwfcfootball@hotmail.com