The Bottom Line Archives

The Bottom Line - Week 9

By Chris Kelly

 

Cal Poly only scored 13 points on Saturday afternoon inside the Fargodome, but it proved to be all they needed as the Mustangs edged a tough foe in the North Dakota State Bison, 13-10. Karl Ivory, the hero two weeks ago against Southern Utah, provided another big play in the first half as he picked off a Tony Stauss pass and returned 72 yards for a score. The Mustangs defense also picked off two more Stauss passes, both in the 4^th quarter to secure the win.

 

The Bison jumped out to the early lead putting together a long drive, which was capped off by a Kyle Steffes 20-yard run. The game was at a standstill with team each trading punts until Cal Poly found the end zone with four minutes to go, then Ivory made his key play to leave the game at 13-7 at half. The second half was a defensive struggle as a Bison field goal was the only scoring. Both defenses played excellent football all afternoon. The Bison held Cal Poly to just 159 yards, while NDSU offense mustered just 271. Besides Ivory, Jordan Beck also starred for the Mustangs, registering eight tackles, including 2 ½ for loss. The Bison were led by Isaac Snell who also chipped in eight tackles, with 1 ½ for loss.

 

CK's Take: Another week, same story for the Cal Poly football team. Last week's offensive explosion seems to me more of an anomaly as this week the Mustangs win was of the formula of the previous five weeks. Cal Poly absolutely amazes me! They get little to no offense, but play such solid defense and special teams. When they need a play, they always seem to find it. Mustang quarterback Anthony Garnett struggled and Cal Poly could not even clear the 200-yard mark in total offense. They still find a way to win. It's really a combination of terrific and opportunistic defense and special teams play. It all parleys into another big win for the Mustangs, who clearly are now positioned to capture the first-ever Great West Football Conference title. A big game against UC Davis is just ahead, something I'll get to a little later.

 

As for the Bison defense- what a tremendous effort by this group. Cal Poly's offense isn't exactly scaring anyone, but the Bison absolutely smothered the offense. The Mustangs couldn't pass or run, and really failed to do anything. The defensive group put together its second consecutive eye-opening outing, but the offense failed to continue the streak. The Bison running game actually fared better than I would have thought. The surprising part is that NDSU didn't go to it more based on their success. Bison quarterback Tony Stuass threw three interceptions, and struggled throughout the afternoon. It can be attributed in part to great defense, but Stauss also missed on some open throws and was ineffective at key points of the game. In what has been an inconsistent year for the senior quarterback, he'll now be replaced as the starter by freshman Steve Walker. Coach Craig Bohl announced this move on Monday, and I can't argue with the decision. He stuck with his guy all season and gave Stauss all the opportunities to succeed. Now is the time to make the switch. I can't say for certain that Steve Walker is the answer for the Bison, but he has provided a spark in his limited duty, and why not get him some of those game situation learning experiences now. This is especially important as Walker is likely the quarterback of the future.  

 

In the other conference game, Southern Utah surprised UC Davis by knocking them off 19-14. With the win, the Thunderbirds earned their first Great West Conference win. Southern Utah led 13-6 before an Aggie field goal and Kevin Freeman touchdown catch gave UCD the lead 15-13. SUU responded by scoring with just over five minutes to go as Casey Rehrer hit Ilaisa Tuiaki for a five-yard score to give the Thunderbirds the lead. UC Davis drove from their own 20 to the T-Birds 15-yard line but failed to convert on downs as receiver Aaron Hines slipped just short of the first down on a 4^th down try. SUU out gained the Aggies 326-312.

 

CK's Take: The Thunderbirds have been close all year long, and last weekend they finally were able to get over that hump and win a big game. SUU is a talented team, but has fallen short so many times. This win has to feel good for Coach Meyer, his team, and the rest of his staff. They did what I expected against the run game, keeping it pretty silent as the Aggies had only minimal success on the ground. Where I thought the decided advantage was the Aggies passing game against the T-Bird secondary. But the T-Birds front seven took a lot of the pressure of that secondary by consistently getting in Aggie quarterback Jon Grant's face. They sacked him seven times and hurried him many more times. Offensively it wasn't Casey Rehrer's best game but he made plays when he had to and did enough to get his team a victory. I'm sure Rehrer will take a step back from his impressive statistical numbers, and trade those in for some timely plays which result in a win.

 

As for UC Davis, after a strong start they have now lost two in a row, and have a few unanswered questions. The one area where the questions are limited would be on the defensive side of the ball, where this group continues to be nothing more than solid every week. They always put together a strong game, but need some more help from the offense. The offense that was so explosive early in the season has struggled over the last couple games. The Aggie running game has been quiet at times, and the offensive line has had some trouble opening up holes for the running game as well as protecting their quarterback. Then again, other times this team can move up and down the field at will. With the biggest game of the year ahead this Saturday, and a chance to make a big move for the conference title, UCD needs to do some fine tuning to prep for a tough Cal Poly defense.

 

One team that did pull it together quickly was the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. SDSU trailed Montana State 24-10 with less than five minutes to play. Then SDSU scored twice in a matter of 33 seconds to tie the game. Brad Nelson hit Chris Molitor on an 18-yard touchdown to cut the lead to seven. After successfully recovering an onside kick, Nelson hit Brian Janecek on a 44-yard touchdown pass to tie the game. Unfortunately, the Jacks left Montana State too much time. The Bobcats marched 69 yards on eight plays to get in field goal position. EJ Cochrane's 22-yard kick gave MSU the win, 27-24.

 

Quick Hits: The Cardiac Jacks almost pulled one out of their hats on Saturday afternoon. They hung tough throughout the first half and even missed cashing in on some opportunities in that first half. But MSU came out playing with a lot more fire in the second half behind a hot quarterback in Travis Lulay. But when it seemed as if the life was gone from SDSU, the Jacks put together one heck of a comeback. In the end, a tough loss, but the Jacks continue to impress, and play well in tough road games. The entire program should feel proud of the way they've handled themselves over the past few weeks. They've done a lot to prove they not only belong at this level, but they also have proven they can play with many of the top teams.

 

In the final game of conference play, Northern Colorado lost to No. 10-ranked Sam Houston State 20-7. The Bears jumped out to the early lead as Jahir Waterman, the Bears backup running back, scored from nine yards out. That would be all the scoring for the afternoon as the SHSU scored the final 20 points behind quarterback Dustin Long. The Bears out gained SHSU 366-355, and were led, once again, by Vincent Jackson's 132 yards receiving.

 

Quick Hits: I'm impressed with the way the Bears play last weekend despite the result. SHSU is a top-10 team, and possibly a top-five team. The Bears out-gained them, and really held their high powered offense somewhat in check. They also had a terrific game from Waterman, starting in place of Andre Wilson. Waterman really gave the Bears coaches a preview of the future. If you also factor in that UNC committed 13 penalties, and missed three field goals all within 39 yards, the Bears weren't that far away from really making this a game. This game typifies the Bears season, in terms of finding ways to lose against a very good team. The Bears fall to 1-7, amidst a horrid schedule, but (you read it here first) we have not heard the last of the Bears in the GWFC conference race. This team has a lost seven in a row, but will knock off at least one, if not two, conference teams in their final three games

 

The Road to a Championship

After looking at MVP candidates last week, I had planned to take a look at the race for the conference championship this week. However, Aggie beat writer, and roundtabler, Mike Mirer (The Davis Enterprise) detailed each team's chances to capture the first-ever Great West Football Conference Championship this week in one of his articles. So a big thanks goes out to Mike for doing the legwork, as listed below is an excerpt from his article:

 

"As the season heads into the final weeks, five of the six GWFC still have a shot at the league title, though some shots are longer than others.

- Cal Poly sits in the best position at 3-0 in league play and needs only to win its final two league games to claim the title outright.

- UCD could also win the league outright, but it would need to win its two games and also have Northern Colorado beat Cal Poly on Nov. 13.

- The Bears, despite being 1-7 overall, are 1-1 in league play and with help from UCD could win outright. In addition to victories its last three league games, Northern Colorado needs UCD to beat Cal Poly but lose to North Dakota State. If the Bears win their last three games, which includes a meeting with the Mustangs, they share the championship with the winner of Cal Poly-UCD (if the Aggies beat the Bison.)

- The winner of the South Dakota State-Southern Utah game on Nov. 13 would need to win its game with Northern Colorado (both teams travel to Greeley, Colo next month), have the Bears and Aggies beat the Mustangs, then have North Dakota State upset UCD. That would create a three-way tie. If all of the above happens and the Bears beat the loser the T'Birds-Jackrabbits game, four teams could finish 3-2 in league play."

 

CK's Take: It's great to see that so many teams still have a shot to either win outright or share the conference title, even if some of them are minute. This all goes back to the whole parity issue that really exists within this conference. Any team could beat any team on any given Saturday. Need further proof: of the nine conference game played so far seven have been decided by seven points or less, while the other two were a 10 and 52-point wins by UC Davis. You'd have hard time convincing me that UC Davis could beat SDSU by more than 14 at this point in the season, so I don't even consider that blowout win relevant in this comparison. It really has been an exciting conference race thus far, and we can expect many more competitive games as we head down the stretch. As for who wins- that's revealed a little later in the column.

 

Week 9 Games

As we head into final four weeks of the season, Northern Colorado gets a much needed bye, while Southern Utah essentially has one as well. South Dakota State takes on a team that may well hoist the national championship trophy at year's end, while another ranked opponent visits the Fargodome. In the final game of the week, Davis travels to Cal Poly. I put up another 2-2 week last week as SUU surprised Davis and the Jackrabbit comeback against Montana State fell just short. That leaves me at 25-9 (.735) on the season.

 

Montana Western @ Southern Utah

Two questions for all of you out there. What conference does Montana Western play in, and what is their mascot? If you just rattled off the answers, Frontier Conference, and the Bulldogs then you know way too much about the NAIA, which is exactly the level at which MWU plays. This conference may be a tad familiar to Bison fans, who watched North Dakota State pound fellow conference member Montana Tech earlier this season.

 

I'm not one who likes to compare scores a ton because many times in football, you don't always learn a lot by doing so. Football is about matchups, but in this case I'll go to the scoreboard to let you know exactly why Southern Utah is going to mop up MWU this weekend. Montana Western actually beat Montana Tech earlier this year, but has a strange schedule where they play MTU twice this year. They just lost by ten last weekend, to a team the Bison handled earlier this season by 53. You do the math.

 

Another question: Are you wondering if I'm going to start talking about the actual game? For those of you still reading, Southern Utah is too quick, too strong and too talented to let this game last much long than a quarter. Casey Rehrer might actually get to rest for most of the second half as he throws for over 200 yards and adds three scores. Note to Montana Western: have every available quarterback in uniform! If Marques Harris, Steve Overly, and Nick DiPadova blitz much, the Bulldogs may go through a couple on Saturday. This one will be a yawner by half, as the T-Birds roll. Southern Utah 47 Montana Western 6

 

South Dakota State @ Georgia Southern

South Dakota State hits the road again this weekend in arguably the toughest non-conference game for any Great West team this season. The Jackrabbits travel to Statesboro, Georgia to take on the #2 team in the nation in Georgia Southern. The Eagles, who earned 17 first place votes in this week's Sports Network poll, are fresh 42-7 victory over the Citadel. The victory secured the 8^th Southern Conference title in the last 12 years. GSU is 7-1 having lost only to I-A Georgia 48-28. In those seven wins since the season opening loss, the Eagles have scored at least 38 points a game.

 

The aforementioned information should tell everyone at least that GSU is one powerful bunch. That power really begins on the offensive side of the ball where the Eagles average a disgusting 50 points per game along with over 480 yards of offense. The Eagles, who run a triple option offense, average 355 yards of rushing yardage a game. GSU is led by star running back Jermaine Austin, who along with quarterback Chaz Williams have combined for over 800 yards rushing. The scary part of this dangerous speed on offense is that it doesn't end with these two. Eleven Eagles have gained at least 100 yards on the ground this season, and all but the quarterback are averaging over 4.6 per carry. When GSU isn't executing the option to perfection, Williams has proven he can throw the ball pretty effectively. He's thrown for 800 yards, and 11 touchdowns, while putting up 100 per game. If you haven't gotten the point now this teams is not only scary good on offense, but they are as deep at the skill positions as anyone around. So the question for the Jackrabbits: how do you stop an offense that no one before you has been able to do? And the honest answer is, hope for a lot of fumbles. Look, SDSU has faced some option against Cal Poly, and defended it well. However, the Mustangs offense isn't near as talented as the Eagles attack. This speedy rushing attack can hit you from all angles, and break a big play at any moment. And just when you've committed everything to the run, they'll beat you over the top. South Dakota State has to sell out completely on the run, leaving their corners matched in man all day. They'll need to hope that not only their corners won't need help, but Williams is off the mark passing so they can fully concentrate on the run.

 

The Georgia Southern defense can bring it too, as like the offense, they also return nine starters. They allow just 240 yard of offense and only give up 15 points a game. The trio of defensive stars are linebackers John Moring, Derrick Butler, and defensive end Eric Hadley who have combined for 101 tackles, 18.5 of which have gone for loss. While GSU has been solid against the run all season, the Jackrabbits will need to focus on the run all game long. The best scenario against a team this talented is too keep the offense off the field, and SDSU must do that by controlling the clock, and the ball. The Jacks need heavy doses of Anthony Watson. The offensive line has to win the battle up front, and Watson must have his game of the year to allow some things to open up in the passing game. If the Jacks can sustain long drives, and eat up the clock, you never know. If there is a formula to beating GSU though, no one at the I-AA level has discovered it. Despite how well SDSU has played, this seems a near impossible task to win on the road against the Eagles, especially following a difficult loss last weekend. The biggest problem I for see is SDSU's ability to score with GSU this weekend. The matchup isn't the best for the Jacks, and scoring more than 24 points seems unlikely.  That's about 26 points short of the Georgia Southern average. I wouldn't be surprised is SDSU has some spurts of success against GSU's rushing attack, but holding them down all game long won't happen.  This SDSU defense has been solid against the run, but to stop this offense would truly be pulling a "rabbit" out of the hat. No magicians on the field this week, as GSU wins without problems.  Georgia Southern 40, South Dakota State 17

 

#15 Northwestern State @ North Dakota State

Here's a couple scores to ponder:

-        Oct 2^nd: North Dakota State 24 Nicholls State 14

-        Oct 21^st: Nicholls State 40 Northwestern State 14

 

So thankfully because of these scores and the fact the Bison play at home this weekend, all signs point towards a blowout in Fargo. This, however, is exactly why I explained earlier comparing scores has absolutely no relevance. In a game I actually watched on TV, Nicholls State handled Northwestern State but let's dig a little deeper. First the Demons committed 14 penalties, many of them which stalled drives. They also turned the ball over six times, which resulted in numerous scoring opportunities for Nicholls. Finally, I witnessed two of the flukiest plays I've ever seen, which both resulted in two Nicholls touchdowns. All said the team that played last week was hardly a sign of the group that will show up in North Dakota this weekend.

 

That team is led offensively by running backs Derrick Johnese and Shelton Sampson. The two have each gained over 400 yards and average over six yards per carry. The Demons are a team that focuses on running the ball via the option, but can throw the ball when needed, as they feature a two quarterback system. Quarterbacks Connor Morel Davon Vinson have both played in all seven games and have been equally effective, statistically speaking. The Bison continue to be extremely potent on defense, as they've been getting terrific play all over the field. Over the last couple weeks, the defensive line has been as strong as ever, while the defensive backs have chipped in with some key interceptions. Northwestern State's strength is the running game and going right at the opposition, which leans as a slight advantage to the Bison. NDSU has been extremely strong against the run giving up just 121 per game. That stat is especially magnified when one considered the Bison have played three teams which run the option already this season. It will be interesting to watch the effectiveness of the Demon offense if the Bison can slow the run. Do the Demons have the talent to move the ball via the pass if the run is shut down?

 

Now to the Bison offense, where we've spent the majority of the season breaking down the all over the board season of quarterback Tony Stauss. Well, out is Stauss, and in is freshman Steve Walker to lead the team. Coach Bohl made the official switch on Monday and thus gave Walker the chance to prepare all week with the first team. It's quite the game to make an entrance as the Bison play at home and welcome the #15 team in the nation. This is a Demon team with a speedy defense, who is especially tough against the Bison strength, the run. The Demons are No. 1 in the nation against the run surrendering just 66 yards a game. They rank No. 2 in overall defense. For the second consecutive week, the Bison face a tough front seven who can really make life difficult for a running game. What happened last week to the Bison may again be the case this week. The pressure will fall on the Bison quarterback, as "green" as he is, to make some big plays to win this game. With as good of a defense as the Demons have, they will likely shut down the run, and then can pin their ears back and make life difficult for the freshman. As much as I like the situation for the Bison on the other side of the ball, I don't it on this side. The Bison will likely have the rush game squashed this weekend and then it's up to Walker. Expect NSU coach Scott Stoker to throw the defensive playbook at Walker, and I expect he'll have some troubles this weekend. I know Bison fans are very excited for the entrance of Walker based on the spark he provided earlier this year, but I must be a realist. This young quarterback is going to face a tough situation this weekend, and his numbers may not pretty at game's end. It's important the Bison keep the game plan fairly simple to keep Walker from making game changing mistakes. Initially, I was leaning towards taking the Demons to win this game with as tough of defense as NSU has, and the inexperience that will be exposed by Walker this weekend. But there's no way I'm going against the Bison with as well is this defense has been playing and with 17K + strong in the dome. Walker does just enough, and the Bison win a tight defensive struggle. North Dakota State 17, Northwestern State 16

 

 

Game of the Week

UC Davis @ #5 Cal Poly

 

Trends. Cal Poly owns the longest active winning streak in I-AA, having won eight in a row/ (dating back to last season) The Aggies and Mustangs meet for the 30^th time, as the Aggies own a narrow 14-13-2 advantage. Last season the Mustangs came from behind on a defensive score by All-American Jordan Beck to win 18-14.

 

Cal Poly offense vs. UC Davis defense. The Mustang offense erased any thoughts that it was breaking out of its season long slump last weekend as they were held to under 200 yards of total offense. Quarterback Anthony Garnett makes his 4^th start, and hopes to ignite an offense that has struggled in two of his three starts. The Mustangs run the option, but not more than 1/3 of the time in any game, as they'll mix it up plenty. They come into the game the #2 rushing team (190 per game) in the conference, but face the No. 2 rushing defense (88 yards allowed). A team that focuses on the run, especially the option, plays into the Aggies hand. The Aggies also bring in the best red zone defense, as Cal Poly is last in red zone offense. UC Davis has played the option well over the years, and this week will be no different. Unfortunately for the Aggies, linebacker Tom Parisi, who was injured last week, is out. However, the Aggies do get defensive lineman Ryan Sharp back, who left last week's game in the 1^st quarter. That loss had a big impact on the line last weekend. The Mustangs will look to move the ball via the run, and then hope things open up in the passing game. Coach Rich Ellerson won't get too aggressive with his inexperienced signal caller, because the margin of error is small this week. Cal Poly must also limit their turnovers, as they have turned it over 20 times this season. The Aggies will focus on shutting down the run and containing Garnett from beating them with his legs. Garnett is talented, but doesn't possess the passing skills of a Casey Rehrer, at least in this point of his career. UCD will be all about the run on Saturday, forcing Garnett to beat them with the pass. If Garnett has to pass over 25 times, the Aggies will be the ones doing the defensive scoring.

 

UC Davis offense vs. Cal Poly defense. What haven't I said about this Mustang defense? They are just flat out awesome! This week the challenge is big facing an Aggies bunch leading the Great West in offense, and passing. Where the Mustangs have dominated this season has been with consistently shutting down the opponent's run game, allowing under 80 yards per game. Now they face an Aggie team that has been inconsistent in establishing a solid run game. Don't expect much to change this weekend, as the Aggies will find running room difficult. Where the Aggies are dangerous is with the passing game, where points can go up in a hurry. However, the Aggies have not show the ability to deliver the big play like they were doing in the first few games of the season. With the prospects of putting together 10-14 play drives to score, Cal Poly certainly gains the advantage on defense. The Aggies, who are adept at picking teams apart with an efficient short passing game, won't find life easy nickel and diming their way down the field. This offense can certainly do it, but with an offensive line that struggled to protect quarterback Jon Grant last weekend, there has to be concern. The Mustangs love to blitz and come from every angle possible, and the Aggies must find a way to protect their leader. UC Davis must continue to use Daniel Fells, their tight end, who has finally become a bigger piece of the offense over the last few weeks. They also need to get one big play this weekend. Coach Biggs always has one trick in the playbook each week, and surprisingly hasn't busted one out yet. Don't be surprised to see it this weekend. All else aside, if the Mustangs play their game, and get to Grant, Cal Poly will be sitting pretty at the end of four quarters.

 

Key Matchup: Aggie offensive line vs. Cal Poly front four/seven. The Aggies offensive line has struggled over the past two weeks, and the Mustangs defensive front has to be licking their chops. Two weeks ago, Stephen F. Austin needed only their front four to shut down the running game and apply pressure on quarterback Jon Grant. Last week it was a blitzing Southern Utah front seven team that made for a difficult task in keeping Jon Grant upright. This week the Aggies Offensive line can't let the Mustang front four consistently find their way to Grant. Mustang defensive lineman Chris Gocong, and Kelly Turbin have a way of doing so and if they and their fellow linemen can get to Grant, this game is over. The Aggies must force the Mustangs to blitz, bringing more than four to get to Grant. The fact that Grant was sacked seven times last week does not bode well this weekend. This Aggie offensive line can't allow even close to a repeat performance. All eyes are on that matchup because of the talent of this Mustang defense, and their ability to shut down offenses. If UCD keeps Grant protected, and Grant has the time to make his reads, the Aggies win. If Cal Poly is getting consistent pressure, the Mustangs win. It's that simple.

 

X Factor: Coaching. Sure there are of ton of different angles I could have taken with this section of the column (turnovers, special teams, quarterbacks, etc) but this one just stands out to me. Over the last couple weeks Coach Rich Ellerson has faced Texas State, and North Dakota State, who were both new to the schedule. Coach Bob Biggs saw Stephen F. Austin for the first time, and a Southern Utah team which hadn't been on the schedule since 2000. That Thunderbird team was a totally different team that ran purely option. So are you wondering where I am going with this? Cal Poly and UC Davis know each other. They play every year. Coach Biggs is very familiar with the Mustangs double flex eagle defense, and Coach Ellerson knows his fair share of the danger of the Aggies pro-style offense. They've seen many of the different looks the other has to offer, and know each other's tendencies. So it then comes down to who "game-plans" a little better this weekend. Yeah, the players make the plays, but a battle between these two minds will be fun to watch this weekend. How does Poly defend the Aggies offense, and how do the Aggies adjust, etc? In a game that seems destined to be decided by seven points or less, it's those little tweaks throughout the game that will ultimately make the difference.

 

The Roundtable says:

Jeff Kolpack, Fargo Forum: (5-2) "After studying Cal Poly for one week and seeing it 
in action, I have a profound conclusion that will shock everybody: these boys can play 
defense. A lack of offense will keep the Mustangs from going deep in the playoffs but 
this is a Great West title team. Cal Poly 19, UC Davis 9."

 

Kent Schmidt, I-aa.org: (6-1) "UC Davis is coming off their first Great West Conference loss to Southern Utah and second loss in a row overall (Stephen F. Austin).  Cal Poly is coming in undefeated at 7-0 after defeating North Dakota State 13-10 but has looked anything but great on offense all season long.  The Mustang defense is a different story, which in my opinion has won the seven games so far.  It will be a true battle between the Aggie offense and the Mustang defense this week in San Luis Obispo.  Cal Poly just seems to have that certain magic to win games this year and they do have the home field advantage.  I will take the Mustangs to win by seven.  Cal Poly 24, UC Davis 17"

 

Chris Solari, Argus Leader: (6-1) "UC Davis at Cal Poly: Does the Mustang defense 
have to lead the way every week? Apparently so, and they'll need it to step up again this 
week against Jon Grant and the Aggies. UC Davis is capable of putting up 50 points in 
any game, but a quick check of what Southern Utah did last week should help the 
equally-athletic Cal Poly bunch in stopping General Grant. However, can the anemic 
Cal Poly offense stop playing like a bunch of mustang sallies, especially against a 
quick Aggie defense? Rivalry games are always tough to call, but let's give this one to 
Cal Poly based on home-field advantage (and pray the two bands will stop playing 
sometime before next year's game). Cal Poly 16, UC Davis 10."

Mike Mirer, Davis Enterprise: (7-0)  "Cal Poly is 7-0 despite the fact its offense has 
failed to reach 250 total yards in a conference game. That's a credit to a great defense 
and a very good special team unit. But it will take more than 13 points to beat UC Davis, 
and the Mustangs haven't proved that they can put those points on the board. For its part, 
the Aggies haven't proved that they can keep QB Jon Grant ambulatory long enough 
against good defenses. Southern Utah sacked him seven times. The match-ups are all 
pretty much a wash. UCD is most effective in the passing game and Cal Poly has proven 
statistically vulnerable against the pass, but if the Aggies throw every down Jordan Beck 
and company can pin back their ears and blitz. Meanwhile the Aggie defense stuffed 
Southern Utah's spread option in the second half and will be ready for a mobile 
quarterback. UCD's defense is disciplined enough to stay in position and fast enough 
to chase down some of the Mustang speedsters. Someone has to win, so here goes: 
without a consistent offense, Cal Poly is too one-dimensional to go undefeated and is 
due for a fall. More importantly, the vibe around this Davis team is not that of a team 
on its way to three losses in a row. UC Davis 21, Cal Poly 17"

 

The Bottom Line: The Davis loss last week in Southern Utah opened some eyes, and immediately made Cal Poly the favorite this weekend. This Davis team, however, can still bring it on both sides of the ball. The offense has been slowed over the last two weeks facing sound defenses, but only needs to score 24 points to win this weekend. The Aggies defense is as quick as they come, and once again will present major challenges to the Mustangs struggling offense. Still, Cal Poly has an exceptional defense, which helps play good offense. Their ability to deliver key plays, as well as set up a short field has been a big reason they are still unbeaten. This game could go either way, but there's a reason Cal Poly is ranked No. 5 in the nation: they just know how to win. Losses over the last two weeks won't change the fact that this game will be one of best of the year in the Great West, as it goes down to the wire. The visitor has won the last four games in the series, a trend which will be reversed this weekend. A Byungwoo Yoon field goals wins it, as the Mustangs clinch at least a share of the Great West title. Cal Poly 19, UC Davis 17

 

Questions. Comments. Email Chris @ gwfcfootball@hotmail.com.