Oct. 25, 2006

The Bottom Line - Week 8
By Chris Kelly

With over eight minutes to go in the 4th quarter, #4 Cal Poly was in control of their game leading South Dakota State 28-6. Then the Andy Kardoes and JaRon Harris show officially started. Those two hooked up for three touchdowns in the final period as the Jacks outscored the Mustangs 23-0 to stun Cal Poly 29-28. Andy Kardoes' two point conversion on a quarterback draw put the Jacks ahead. The Mustangs drove to the SDSU 45 but Matt Brennan threw and interception to seal the victory for the Jackrabbits.

CK's Take: Wow, where do I start with this one? First to SDSU who just seems to find a way to show me (and the entire I-AA world) even more heart every week. Coach Steigelmeier just vaulted way ahead of his fellow Great West coaches for Coach of the year honors, when you start accounting not only how he held this team together but also factor in the success their now having. (on the verge of a national ranking) For As for Coach Stig going for two, I love that call. Even if it fails, who cares. This team is not eligible for the playoffs, on the road, against a great defense. I realize that his team had taken control of the game and maybe if the playoffs were in the picture you play it a little different. But I think you take your shot to win the game in regulation. And Andy Kardoes played a huge role in that decision, something I'll talk about more in the game of the week section.

And down 28-6 for this team to battle back the way they did is impressive. Andy Kardoes is just a warrior and his role in leading this team back to victory was key. Kardoes finished 14-27 for 250 yards and three touchdowns. In those final eight minutes he was 6-12 for 143 yards, three touchdowns, one rush for nine yards and the huge quarterback draw that was good for two points. Amazing. In those numbers is a 4th and goal play from the 12 yard line where Kardoes threw a 12-yard touchdown pass to keep this comeback alive. All those touchdown passes went to JaRon Harris, who had a monster night going for 133 yards on just six catches with all three scores. I think the Jacks just found a major weapon in the passing game.

As for Cal Poly, they looked every bit as dominant defensively as they have all season -- for nearly three and a half quarters. SDSU had only slightly over 100 yards of total offense. What happened? Kardoes went off and that Cal Poly pass defense just disappeared. Or did they? Cal Poly was up 22 points and didn't really change out of their base defense they were in all night. The Mustangs, up 22 with eight to go, continued to play man on the outside and blitzed Kardoes. That gave the Jacks the opportunity to go up top and not be forced to run everything underneath. Certainly it helped that the Jacks offensive line dramatically turned around their play in that final period, something that was lacking in the first three quarters. But I have to wonder if the Mustangs had backed off and forced SDSU to go underneath, do they win this game? They could not stop this offense in the final quarter and this loss stings. To emotionally lose a game like that at home is going to weigh on these players minds for a while. I have to wonder what kind of emotion this team will come out with on Saturday against San Diego State. Coach Rich Ellerson has to get his troops focused. That's true considering that the Mustangs are still very much alive in the playoff hunt but need wins. Their run to the playoffs just took a serious blow on Saturday. Now with two losses they can probably afford just one more and get in. That means they'll need to go 2-1 against San Diego State, North Dakota State and Montana. And that is no easy task especially because all three games are on the road. This Mustangs team just got a gut check on Saturday - they'll need to dramatically increase their level of play or they'll be sitting home for the first weekend of the playoffs.

The Bison were oh so close to pulling off another big win against a DI-A foe this weekend as a blocked field goal attempt thwarted the upset bid on the game's final play. Minnesota, frustrated all day by a stingy NDSU defense, scored to take their first lead of the game in the 4th quarter. However, the Bison battled back kicking a field goal to pull within one with just over five minutes to go. After stopping Minnesota, the Bison drove to the 24-yard line but Shawn Bibeau's 41-yard game winning attempt was blocked.

CK's Take: It's extremely disappointing that the Bison didn't win this game because they dominated it. But in the end, having to settle for field goals hurt them and Minnesota only needed 10 points to pick up the victory. The Bison ran the ball well, passed it well, and held the Minnesota offense to just 249 total yards of offense. This is one of those games where clearly it can be said the better team lost. Steve Walker (22-37, 227) had another strong game with a red zone interception (which was tipped) as his only blemish. Kyle Steffes ran well and went over 100 yards averaging over four per carry against a Big Ten defense. Impressive.

That NDSU defense did an excellent job against the run holding Minnesota to just 99 yards. It looked for a long time that the defense would hold Minnesota out of the end zone until they finally scored late. All those chances that got away will make this loss hard to swallow. The Bison missed a 21 yards field goal, had a pass intercepted on the Minnesota 20, and of course had the blocked field goal at the end of the game. This NDSU team is legit and I watched the scores come in this weekend it dwelled on me that the Bison would have a legitimate shot to win the national title if they were eligible this season. Look how many teams lost this weekend in the top ten. Those that won - Montana and Appalachian State - really had to struggle to win. That App State team (formerly #1) needed OT to beat a Georgia Southern team the Bison handled on the road a few weeks back. Just how good are the Bison? Certainly, the Great West title goes through Fargo as of now. But we may never know how good this team truly is because NCAA rules will keep the Bison from what would be an almost sure playoff birth in 2006. San Diego coach Jim Harbaugh has been doing a lot of talking to get some media attention in hopes it will mean a playoff birth at season's end. The only real person, who should be talking, or rather, complaining, is Coach Crag Bohl. Arguably the best team in I-AA assuredly won't make the playoffs.

Other Games

UC Davis 27 Southern Utah 7 Quick Hits: The Aggies had a huge development on Saturday: they established a running game. And Marcus Nolan not only established it, he had a monster game. Nolan ran for 134 yards on 29 carries and also added 12 catches for 71 yards. The Aggies defense was dominant in holding Southern Utah to just 129 yards of offense, including just 49 on the ground. James Amos led the charge with six tackles, including one for loss. Southern Utah has to be happy to return home for a game next weekend after four on the road - but the enthusiasm will probably be tempered when they realize it's a hot Bison team they'll face.

Top 25 Ballot

What a week in the top 25 - losses all over the place. Cal Poly stunning loss to South Dakota State moves them only to #9 based on all the other losses. I actually moved the Bison up a spot (#4) despite their loss because I do believe they are one of the top five teams in the nation. UC Davis moved up a couple spots to my #12 and South Dakota State makes it debut in my ballot at all the way up to #21.

Week 7 Games

#6 North Dakota State (6-1) at Southern Utah (3-5)

Southern Utah finally returns home after four consecutive games on the road, all losses, to face North Dakota State. The Bison have won the first two battles as members of the Great West. As I've discussed at length over the past couple weeks this Southern Utah offense has to get some sort of run game going or it puts extreme pressure on Wes Marshall to win this game with his arm. As much as Marshall has improved, the T-Bird offense doesn't fare well as a one-dimensional group. The issues this weekend is the Thunderbirds are up against the best run defense in all of I-AA. The Bison come into play giving up less than 50 yards a game having just held a power rushing Minnesota offense to less than 100 yards this past Saturday. One of those defenders, Mike Maresh, earned defensive players of the week accolades after his 10 tackles performance against Minnesota. Don't expect anything to change this week as the Bison completely stuff the Southern Utah run game and force Marshall to the air early and often. Coach Wes Meier will have to come up with some new wrinkles this weekend if his team wants to stay in this game. If they can't run the ball or find some way to make some big plays, this Bison defense is going to prey on SUU's quarterback. I don't expect much to change from the past two weeks in that with no rush game the T-Birds probably don't score more than 10 points this weekend.

The Bison offense may not have scored much last weekend but they put up 380 yards against the Golden Gophers defense. Especially watching a UC Davis team, not known much for running the football, have a ton of success against this front seven, the Bison should be licking their chops. Kyle Steffes should have a big game this weekend, but expect Pete Blincoe to get a healthy amount of carries this weekend as both have success on the ground. Coach Craig Bohl will mix in the play action at key points but expect the Bison to stay physical and on the ground this weekend as they roll to another win against a team that has been struggling over the past few weeks. Steffes and Blincoe combine for 250 on the ground as the Bison move to 7-1. North Dakota State 31 Southern Utah 6

#9 Cal Poly (5-2) at San Diego State (1-6)

It won't get any easier this week for Cal Poly as the Mustangs take on DI-A San Diego State on the road. After already falling to I-A San Jose State, Cal Poly faces a Aztec team who just won for the first time last weekend beating a quality Air Force team. The question on everyone's mind is how Coach Rich Ellerson gets his team to respond after the way they lost on Saturday night. Emotional losses like the one the Mustangs experienced last weekend can stay on the minds of players longer than they should and can definitely affect play in following weeks. You want a real life example take a look at Michigan State who completely collapsed after Notre Dame scored three times (19-0 run) in the final eight minutes of the game to beat the Spartans. The next week they lost to lowly Illinois. In fact Coach Ellerson spent a piece of the conference's weekly call this week discussing the importance that come Tuesday morning the players, coaches, staff, etc had to let this loss go and move on to San Diego State. Coach Ellerson is a smart guy so he knows that will be easier said than done - pay close attention to how this team responds early in the game on Saturday.

The question on my mind is if this game should be deemed "must win". After all, a loss this weekend would be #3 (albeit two of them are I-A) with trips to two of the nastiest places to play still on the schedule in Washington Grizzly Stadium and the FargoDome. I tend to think it is a must win but also posed that question to someone who is even closer to the playoff pulse than myself, Matt Dougherty, I-AA Executive Director for the Sports Network. Here's what Matt had to say:

"I wouldn't call the game at San Diego State a must-win, but the Mustangs do have their backs against the wall with needing to win two of the next three on a brutal road trip to have any chance at making the playoffs. They could lose this weekend and get in the postseason by winning the next two, but at this point the San Diego State game might be the most winnable in the stretch.

Two I-A losses, a win against UC Davis and a win against either Montana or North Dakota State would not be enough. The playoff selection committee stipulates that teams with seven Division I wins will be given greater weight in consideration, and the Mustangs would not get to seven DI wins in that scenario."

So now the Mustangs must go to San Diego, get back to some of those fundamentals that were missing on Saturday, execute, and find a way to beat the Aztecs. Looking back to the San Jose State loss should tell you that last weekend's brutal eight minute stretch was just a blip on the defensive radar. SJSU has been a much improved team this season at 4-2 having scored 21 or more points against Washington, Stanford, Utah State, and San Diego State. The only two teams to hold them to less than 21 points were Nevada (road) and Cal Poly (17 at home). So to think that the Mustangs can do the same to the Aztecs is very reasonable. In this week's press conference, Aztec head coach Chuck Long commented that the Mustangs would be a team that would blitz more than any team they've seen all season. And trust me, if this isn't a defense you see on a yearly basis, preparing for its unique-ness it's extremely difficult in one week's time. If this group is on the top of its game Cal Poly can keep SDSU in the 10-17 points range. But this means the offense is going to have to score some points this weekend and Matt Brennan has to be a factor. We know James Noble's story - he's got a bum ankle that will likely dog him the rest of the year but he's still effective enough to take over games. And the Aztecs have allowed teams to run against them a little bit. So look for Noble to have some success this weekend. But it won't be enough success that he can win this game on his own. With fine defensive play, a little bit of Noble, the Mustangs will still need Brennan to make two or three key plays on Saturday. And maybe I don't have all the confidence in Brennan's ability to do that yet, but I do have confidence in Coach Rich Ellerson's ability to get this team mentally prepared to win a game this weekend. Cal Poly won't be the favorite come Saturday but they'll find a way to keep their playoff hopes alive with a huge win this weekend. I'll bet Ramses Barden puts the winning score on the board, and the defense scores, too. Cal Poly 17 San Diego State 14

Game of the Week

#16 UC Davis (4-3) at South Dakota State (4-3) The Jacks huge win last week not only earns them a national ranking but a spot right back here in our game of the week section as they battle UC Davis, a team they beat last season in Brookings, 16-14.

Jackrabbits offense vs. UC Davis defense. The Jacks have been a Jekyll and Hyde offense this season, disappearing for long periods of time throughout games. But as we saw last week as well as against McNeese State this cardiac Jacks offense has explosiveness. What Coach Stig would like to see, however, is a little more consistency throughout the course of game. Last week, the strength of the offense, the run, was held in check by a good Cal Poly front seven. Anthony Watson was only able to manage 28 yards on nine carries. Not having Cory Koenig available hurts but Watson is a more than capable back that needs to do more this weekend against the Aggies. The Davis defense really faces a team very similar in terms of threats on offense. Just like SUU, South Dakota State wants to run the ball but also has a quarterback who strength is his athletic ability. Andy Kardoes can pass the ball very effectively but can really hurt a team when he's able to use his legs to beat the opposition. The Aggies defense won't change a thing this weekend in terms of gameplan. Their first focus is defending not only Watson on the ground, but also Kardoes. They want to take the run completely away. But just the same as Marshall saw last week, Kardoes is going to get some man coverage on the outside with his wide receivers. The Jacks, who work out a three wide receiver one back base formation, will need JaRon Harris, Chris Doblar and Micah Johnson to make some plays when manned up. If the Jacks can run the ball against the tough Aggie front seven it will create some opportunities for the Jacks to really mix up the play calling and do some different things on offense. If the Aggies can contain that run, they'll put Kardoes in obvious passing situation where the defense can pin their ears back and get after the Jacks quarterback. Those are the situation where Kardoes has been susceptible to making mistakes, something that has to be avoided this weekend in what surely stands to be a down to the wire game.

Aggies offense vs. South Dakota State defense. When the South Dakota State coaching staff looks at the film of last week Aggies victory against Southern Utah, how much credence does this staff give the Aggies ability to run the ball? The Aggies have consistently tried to run it week in and week out but with just some moderate spurts of success. They are still only averaging 99.5 yards per game, 106th in the nation but last week had a major breakout game. Marcus Nolan, who took the majority of the carries with Alex Garfio out, busted loose for 134 yards with nearly a five per carry average. Last week I discussed the Aggies ability to use the short passes out of the backfield as way to generate some short yardage to go situations when the run game is not working. But on Saturday both worked well as Nolan ran for over 130 but running backs also caught 14 passes for 95 yards. This is something the Jacks have to be weary of this weekend. The Aggies Jon Grant has made a living of using his backs for short gains out of the backfield. Even more so the question of the run game now comes into play, especially considering a true freshman back (Demario Warren) rushed for over 100 yards last year against this group. But this Jacks front seven isn't coming off four consecutive road games like the Thunderbirds were a week ago. The Aggies offensive line, which had their best run blocking game of the year last weekend, needs to have another fantastic game in a contest that looks tougher by the minute The key piece of this matchup, as always, will be the Jacks ability to get to Jon Grant. This defensive backfield is not going to stop wide receivers Tony Kays, Chris Cater, and Brandon Rice (who returns from a two games injury absence) from finding seams in the defense. But they can stop Grant from finding those receivers by getting to him and knocking him around. Last season, Grant didn't play his best game in Brookings. While SDSU did a decent job of pressuring Grant, he also faced a 30 mph wind that made life difficult. The Aggies pass game never developed any fluidity, and the Jacks want to repeat that success again this season. If the Aggies can run, they'll win this game but if the Jacks contain it then they have to get to Grant.

X-Factor: Andy Kardoes, QB, SDSU. One week later and Kardoes is still my X-factor. For three and a half quarters he really didn't do a whole lot to help his team against Cal Poly. Then he exploded for one of the best comebacks all season outscoring Cal Poly 23-0 in the 4th quarter. The Jacks go as far as their leader Kardoes will take them. Yes, this team prides themselves on the run and needs to run to be successful but it's Kardoes' play that is the difference between a win and a loss. The kid is a warrior, having been knocked out of two games, and returning to lead 4th quarter victories. His inspirational play, whether throwing or running, will be a major factor in determine the outcome of this game. I want to go back to the story of the two-point conversion which beat Cal Poly a week ago which illustrated the competitiveness and fire of this kid. When SDSU scored to pull within one point, the Jacks stayed on the field to go for two. Cal Poly called timeout not expecting that decision. When the Jacks re-grouped on the sideline, the coaches had agreed to kick the extra point and take their chances that momentum and an excellent kicker would pay dividends in overtime. Quarterback Andy Kardoes walked up to Coach Stig and said: "I swear to god coach, I will score, if you give me a chance." Ridiculous confidence and I love it. QB Draw. The rest is history.

Key Matchup: Jackrabbits offensive line vs. Aggies defensive line. Last season the Aggies defense was one of the best against the run allowing just 87.5 yards per game. That number was good enough for 2nd best in all of I-AA last season. This season the Aggies have been just as solid against the run allowing 100 yards, 15th in the nation. In 2005, though, when the Aggies visited Brookings, the Jacks did something no one was able to last season, they ran the ball. The Jacks ran for 185 yards, most of which came in the first half via the legs of Cory Koenig. The Jackrabbits back had some big holes to run through and helped the Jacks get out to an early lead they never relinquished. A week ago against Cal Poly the group up front struggled giving their veteran QB the time to make plays consistently allowing pressure to get to Andy Kardoes. The main reason that the Jacks came back was the throwing of Kardoes and catching of JaRon Harris, but do not leave the offensive line out. They did a fantastic job of protecting their quarterback and giving him the time to make plays. This weekend the Jacks needs that same push along the line against this Aggie run defense. If this offensive line, which is getting better each week, has similar success ala a season ago, the Jacks will win this game. The Aggies front four has to set a tone early and not allow big plays on the ground.

First, The Roundtable would like to welcome newcomer, Terry Vandrovec, who takes over duties as the beat writer for South Dakota State.

The Roundtable says:

Terry Vandrovec, Argus Leader (0-0): "Forget what you thought you knew about these teams: All of a sudden SDSU can throw and Davis can run. That said, this may come down to momentum. The Jacks have won four in a row and will play before a large Hobo Day crowd knowing that a win puts them into the top 25 for the first time and keeps them in contention for their first league title in 40-plus years. SDSU 20, Davis 17.

Jeff Kolpack, Fargo Forum (2-4): "This is a total coin flip. Anyway you look at it, coming up with a favorite is nearly impossible. So here it goes. Eenie Meenie Miney Moe ... Davis 19, SDSU 17."

Mike Mirer, Davis Enterprise (3-3): "I know that South Dakota State has won four straight, but I've spent 20 minutes starting at the stats and can't for the life of me figure out how. The Jacks can't stop the run, they have a negative scoring differential, they barely complete 50 percent of their passes and they are minus-6 in turnover margin. As a lifelong Detroit Tiger fan, I'm perfectly prepared accept the argument that Andy Kardoes is magic and that SDSU possesses some spectacular brand of fortitude that allows it win games. I just can't be expected to base my pick on that. UCD 27, SDSU 20"

The Bottom Line: Jeff Kolpack isn't kidding - this is such a coin flip game and one I've debated on the last couple days. Logic say SDSU beats Cal Poly who beat Davis - so it's easy. But you know what comparing scores gets you: nowhere. Football (to use something very trite) is about matchups and emotion. The matchups that is most intriguing is a prolific Aggies offense (379 ypg, 22nd nationally) against a defense allowing the most yards in the conference, 331. The Aggies also play this game with a chip on their shoulder after a poor effort a year ago while South Dakota State is off what has to have been a draining and emotional win. Do not be surprised if SDSU comes out flat this weekend before finding a rhythm later in the game. For those reasons, UC Davis will nip the Jacks in another Great West thriller. UC Davis 24 South Dakota State 19.

Questions. Comments. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com