The Bottom Line - Week 8
By
Saturday's battle between the No. 10 and No. 21-ranked teams was everything that fans had expected. Stephen F. Austin and UC Davis battled down to the wire, but it was the Lumberjacks who came out on top with a hard fought 22-19 victory. The score that won the game for SFA was a four-yard touchdown pass on 4th down from quarterback Michael Williams to tight end Matt Bodley. With the score, it was the first time the Lumberjacks had led since the middle of the second quarter. It would be the final score of the game.
SFA raced out to a 14-0 lead behind a 39-yard double pass, and a short pass, which turned into a 72-yard score. The first was a pass to wide receiver Tony Tompkins (103 receiving, 39 passing, 1 TD) who subsequently hit running back Derek Farmer to make it 7-0. Then a quick pass to Miguel Toulon resulted in a long score as the Lumberjack wide receiver beat a couple Aggie defenders, and race down the sideline for a score.
CK's Take: Stephen F Austin was a big, physical team, and the most athletic team the Aggies will see this year. But the undersized Aggies defense hung tough and did an excellent job versus the vaunted Lumberjack rushing game holding SFA to 2.9 per rush. A few big plays led to two early scores, then the defense settled down, and frustrated the Lumberjack offense until late in the game. It was one key drive in the 4th quarter in which Lumberjacks converted two key 3rd down passes to keep the drive alive. From 4th and six the Aggies committed a huge penalty moving the ball to the four-yard line. The Lumberjacks then threw the game-winning touchdown. All in all, however, the Aggies defense had an impressive day on Saturday. This group is awfully tough, and held more than their own against a strong offensive front for the Lumberjacks.
The Aggies first loss was difficult if only for the reason they missed out on a ton of opportunities. The offense moved the ball at will in the first half, but UCD turned the ball over three times in SFA territory, once inside the 10-yard line. SFA did not turn the ball over in the game. UCD missed what turned out to be a crucial extra point as well, and committed two drive-killing 15-yard penalties. And for the 3rd time UCD failed to make significant adjustments after SFA made their defensive adjustments in the second half. SFA brought in an extra defensive back, and took away the Aggies short game. They didn't blitz like I felt they would need to do to slow the offense. They went with a completely different scheme and it worked. UCD failed to make their own adjustments and the offense struggled badly. With a tough road game in
Speaking of
CK's Take: Hats off to the Bison defensive line, who played an excellent game. I thought they would need one of their best to slow Rehrer, and this group delivered. But it doesn't stop there as the entire Bison defense had a terrific day. They held the T-Birds to just over 2 yards per carry, sacked Rehrer three times and picked off four passes. SUU only totaled 295 yards of offense.
In the end the way NDSU clinched the victory was interesting. The defense wasn't called upon to make a final stop. Tony Stauss, without the benefit of a running game, made two big 3rd down completions to move the chains and work the clock. Every time I want to count Stauss out, and think he won't come through, he does. Kudos to Tony Stauss for his play on Saturday. His numbers were a very impressive 23-30 for 191. The key: no interceptions. SUU held the Bison to 53 yards on 35 carries, but with the pressure all on the Bison quarterback, there was no panic. NDSU only mustered 244 yards of offense, but it counted as Stauss made the plays when his team needed them. An interesting note was in one of Bison beat writer Jeff Kolpack's game articles. He noted that the NDSU's Sports Information Office (at the time of printing) had been unable to find a time when the Bison rushed for fewer yards, and won. They had gone back to 1979, which is again a testament to Stauss performance on Saturday.
As for the SUU offense, it was extremely surprising to see Casey Rehrer's numbers. Rehrer threw four picks on Saturday, in really the first game he has struggled. He ended up with over 260 yards of total offense, but in the end the turnovers were too much to overcome.
In
Quick Hits: Well I think it's safe to say that Anthony Garnett will start again next week, and the quarterback shuffling is likely over. After the inconsistencies over the first five games, it was hard to imagine the offense being this dominant. Garnett has clearly proven he is capable of being the guy Coach Rich Ellerson needs to run his offense effectively. Geno Randle topping 100 yards on the ground couldn't have come at a better time. The Mustangs need to get him more involved each week. Defensively, the Mustangs were up to their usual tricks slamming shut the door on a good rushing game.
In the final game of the weekend Florida Atlantic beat
Handicapping the MVP
With the season just past the halfway point, the conference race has two teams that have emerged as the favorites. In terms of the Most Valuable Player, a few guys have moved to the forefront, but who should capture it? Here are the candidates (alphabetical):
*Jordan Beck, LB, Cal Poly- 62 tackles, 8.5 for loss, 1 sack, 3 interceptions, 5 breakups
*Chris Coauette, LB, South Dakota State- 59 tackles, 4 for loss, 1 sack, 3 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery.
*Nick DiPadova, LB,
*Reed Doughty, S,
*Jon Grant, QB, UC Davis- 108 of 173, 1602 yds, 14 td's, 5 int's, 161 efficiency, 267 yards per game.
*Vincent Jackson, WR,
*Brad Nelson, QB,
*Casey Rehrer, QB, Southern Utah- 146 of 221, 1510 yds, 14 td's, 8 int's 137 efficiency, 342 yds rushing, 309 total yds per game
*Kyle Steffes, RB, North Dakota State- 166 attempts, 759 yards, 10 touchdowns, 98 per game, 5.3 per rush.
CK's Take: All of these guys have put up some impressive numbers. Each has been a big contributor for their respective teams; so choosing just one is a difficult task. When you look at guys like Kyle Steffes, maybe his numbers don't jump out at you, but then you realize he's averaging 5.3 per carry, second best among the top ten rushers. Steffes also has 10 touchdowns four more than any other back. How about Jon Grant? The sophomore has grasped the UC Davis pro-style offense so well he's been at the top of the efficiency ratings at the I-AA level almost the entire season, leading his team to a 5-1 record and a national ranking. Chris Coauette has the least impressive of four defensive players numbers but the guy is the emotional leader of a vastly improved defense. He is the heart and soul of a unit that now stands at 4-2. He is a big part of the Jack improvement. I could go on and on about each of these guys. They all, in some regard, seem deserving. But, alas, there are three that stand above the rest. Here there in the order I would rank them to date:
3. Vincent Jackson: I know some of you are saying, how is he not #1? But remember, this is for the Most Valuable Player, not the best player. Vincent Jackson is the best player in the league, hands down. He's going to be drafted this spring and will one-day catch passes professionally. He's on a 1-6 team, playing with a quarterback who has had long spurts of inconsistency. The fact he has put up the numbers he has is ridiculous. He's topped 200 yards receiving in three of the last four games. I know voters of top offensive player award tend to get tied to the quarterbacks, but when it comes time to vote for the Walter Payton award
2. Casey Rehrer: How about this kid? I've raved about him all season, and deservedly so. Maybe this isn't the best week to hype him up coming off his worst performance with 4 interceptions. However, over the course of this season, he's been amazing. Yes, SUU is 2-4. But they could be 4-2. The only reason some of the Thunderbird games have been so close is because of the improvement at the quarterback position. Rehrer has impressed all season averaging over 300 yards per game. He's made the
1. Jordan Beck: No doubt about it through 6 games Jordan Beck is the Great West
Week 8 Games
Both UC Davis, and Cal Poly, the two undefeated teams in conference play, make difficult toad trips to highlight week eight. The Big Sky/Great West square off is resumed, while
Northern
No breaks for the Bears, as they travel to meet the 5-1 Bearkats this weekend. SHSU lost to
Everyone knows what to expect on the other side of the ball - lots of Vincent Jackson. Tony Christensen needs to drop back and sling it
The Great West
Travis Lulay, the junior quarterback who has started 27 consecutive games, leads the Bobcats. Lulay, who led his team to the Big Sky championship and a playoff birth last season, returns from a 2,700-yard 12-touchdown season. Thus far in '04, Lulay is averaging 229 yards per game. However, for a quarterback who received so much hype coming into the season, Lulay, to this point, has to be considered a mild disappointment. He's only thrown for 5 touchdowns against six interceptions, and his completion percentage is below 50%. Last week he threw for a career high 375 yards, led a big comeback against the Vikings, and was named Big Sky offensive players of the year. He completed 48% of his passes in that game. Justin Domineck, a transfer from UCLA, leads the rushing game, chipping in 72 per game. The rushing game only averages 3.6 per carry. This offense is capable of big numbers, but hasn't seemed to click early in the season. Still, even with sub-par numbers from Lulay, the Bobcats are 4-2 with three tight wins over Big Sky opponents. The Jacks defense will be challenged, but have shown the ability to slow down good offenses.
As for the
#25 UC
UC Davis takes to the road for the fourth time this season, and SUU plays only its second home game of the season. Both teams are off a loss, as the Thunderbirds look for their first Great West conference win.
The Aggies are also looking this week. They are looking for answers to their second half problems that have plagued them in three of the past four games. An offensive juggernaut in the first half, the Aggies have run off yards, and points in bunches against Stephen F. Austin,
The Thunderbirds counter the Aggies potent offense with Casey Rehrer. I've exhausted this quarterbacks ability, and now he enters play off his worst performance of the year. That worst performance was still good for 260+ yards. The bad news for the Aggies fans is they face a good quarterback coming off a bad week - so look for a rebound. The good news is that the quarterback is of the mold of the one the Aggies saw last week. Rehrer is a threat to run and pass, as his running is both a combination of scrambling and designed plays. The T-Birds will mix a little option in as well, and will line up in anything from two backs, to empty backfield. The difference this week is that Rehrer is a better passer than Williams (SFA), but SUU doesn't possess nearly the power rush game the Lumberjacks featured. The Aggies will look to take away the run game, but must keep an eye on Rehrer at all times. It will be up Rehrer to exploit man-to-man matchups with the Aggie corners if SUU is to be successful.
Game of the Week
#6
Trends: This is the third meeting between the two teams, as the Bison hold the edge 2-1 in the series. Cal Poly won the first game (35-29) in 1985, while NDSU beat the Mustangs in the D-II quarterfinals in 1990 (47-0), then was victorious again to open the 1992 season, 26-10.
Cal Poly offense vs.
Key Matchup: Bison offensive line vs. Cal Poly defensive front seven. I know the Bison have a good offense line, but this defense will really challenge the big boys up front. Chris Gocong and Kelly Turbin are absolute menaces to the opposition, and the offensive line of the Bison has to keep them out of the backfield. The duo has combined for 19 stops behind the line. As the Mustangs focus on the Bison run game they'll stack the box and dare Stauss to pass. This week is not so much about the Bison needing to establish the run game, and the line opening up holes, but more about giving Stauss some time to pass. I've already conceded the fact that the Bison will have minimal success on the ground. Thus the Bison offensive line must give Stauss time to pass, and allow him to make his reads. If Cal Poly is blitzing consistently, and they will bring a lot of pressure, then the Bison will have to keep a tight end in or a running back in the backfield for max protection. The group up front has to give Stauss a chance. It's not easy to beat this defense, but Southern Utah proved that teams can move on them with regularity so it's not impossible. Casey Rehrer put up 250 on the defense and did it via the short passing game, much like what the Bison will rely on. The formula to win this game is there, but the Bison must execute perfectly.
X Factor- Fargodome. Yes, the Fargodome is my X Factor. North Dakota State has the biggest home field advantage of anyone in the Great West Conference. They draw greater than 15,000 and it could be more this week. They play in a raucous dome, which can make a huge difference in games. Off a big win last season facing a team ranked in the top ten, you can bet this crowd will be fired up. Cal Poly has won three tough road games against
The Roundtable says:
team this year. Yes, they have won some close, hard-fought games but they are still 6-0
right now. And the most impressive part is their defense. NDSU has had the misfortune
of two close loses in losing on the road to Northern Colorado and South Dakota State
but does have impressive wins over established I-AA opponents Nicholls State and
Southern Utah. NDSU's, like Cal Poly's, strength is their defense. I have to go with
Cal Poly in this game, as they just seem to find a way to win. Even though the game is
in the Fargodome, I will take the Mustangs in a defensive struggle. Cal Poly 17, NDSU 14"
Jeff Kolpack, Fargo Forum: (4-2) "NDSU is a good home team in the dome, but
Cal Poly appears to be too fast, too experienced and too good on defense for the Bison
to sneak by this team. Cal Poly 22, NDSU 13."
Chris Solari, Argus Leader: (5-1) "Fresh off their first Great West win, the Bison play
host to the hottest team in the league. Cal Poly's defense has been the director toward its
No. 6 ranking in I-AA, but the Mustang offense has finally begun to jell and should benefit
from playing on the FargoDome carpet. Rich Ellerson's club knows it must avoid a
letdown, with UC Davis looming next week, and QB Anthony Garnett and the Jordan
Beck Brigade should keep pushing the Mustangs toward the I-AA playoffs.
Cal Poly 28, NDSU 17."
1. Fargo is a long way from San Luis Obispo.2. If the dome is energized, it will be a difficult place to play.3. Though it certainly beats the alternative, it's hard to prepare as an unbeaten and even
tougher to stay that way.4. On the other side of this game waits UC Davis, Poly's biggest rival (Only Mustang
teams that beat Davis get their team photo in the locker room.) If both teams handle their
business Saturday, it sets up a de facto title game next week at SLO. Everyone will
deny it, but that's a major distraction from the business at hand.5. It's one thing to get 578 yards of total offense against Texas State, but it's another to
do it against a real defense like NDSU's. There are two games worth of film on Anthony
Garnett now, and if he has weaknesses a very good Bison defense will find them.That said, however, it comes down to this. In big games, and this is most certainly a
big game, the Bison have found ways to lose. So I like Cal Poly here, even if I'm not
exactly sure how it will win. Cal Poly 20, NDSU 10"
The Bottom line: Things are rolling the way of the Bison. They've got Cal Poly where they want `em, at home in the Fargodome. They come off an impressive win over Southern Utah. They won that game the exact way they'll need to win this game, with good defense, and strong play from Tony Stauss. That was something you could not have convinced me of last week. On the other side, the Cal Poly has their first great week of offense to brag about to go along with their excellent defense and special teams play. If the offense proves to be for real, maybe this team is peaking at the right time, and with the playoffs around the corner, the perfect time. However, one game does not a season make, and Anthony Garnett enters major enemy territory this weekend. He will struggle to start against a Bison defense better than Texas State's. But the difference this week, as opposed to two weeks ago, is Garnett is feeling comfortable, and confident. A bad start won't parley into a bad game, and he always has the defense to back up a slow start. The Bison will frustrate the Poly O early, until it finds enough to get it by in the second half. The Bison offense will put together a couple impressive drives, but eventually will succumb to the Mustangs pressure. This one has all the makings of a classic, down to the wire battle. Cal Poly has won important games on the road already, and it can add one more feather to its cap - the Fargodome. Cal Poly 21,
Comments and/or Questions. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com
