The Bottom Line Archives

The Bottom Line - Week 7

By Chris Kelly

 

The only game on the docket last week was Southern Utah visiting UC Davis in a quiet week for the Great West. The Aggies jumped out to a 7-0 lead with a 65-yard scoring drive capped off by a Jon Grant to Tony Kays touchdown pass. After a punt that resulted in a net of negative five yards, the Aggies tacked on a 28-yard field goal by Emmanuel Benjamin and they were well on their way. The field goal was the first of four for the UC Davis kicker as he also hit from 19, 38, and 40 yards out.

 

UC Davis held a 30-7 advantage before two 4^th quarter scores would put the final margin at 33-21. Southern Utah quarterback Was Marshall hit Jerome Eason on both his touchdown tosses covering 23 and 4 yards. Marshall threw for just over 100 yards while his counterpart Jon Grant was good for 202 yards and two scores. Aggie linebacker Nolan De Graaf led all tacklers with 10 stops, and a sack. Josh Raben had eight tackles, and a pick.

 

CK's Take: Southern Utah actually out-gained UCD on Saturday night, as the Aggies had tremendous field position all night starting on their own 43-yard line all night. But the Aggies made the most of their time with the ball putting together a number of drives which helped UCD rack up points often all evening. The most positive sign had to be the kicking of Emmanuel Benjamin, who tied a UC Davis record kicking four field goals. The Aggies kicking game had been horrid up until last night when things finally started to click. The fact that Benjamin seems to have his confidence back is a huge sign as the Aggies head into a huge two game conference stretch against North Dakota State, and Cal Poly.

 

I mentioned that Nolan De Graaf led the Aggies in tackles, and what a story he has become. De Graaf was once a tight end converted to wide receiver and now converted to linebacker. He has been so impressive in his growth on the defensive side of the ball that he started on Saturday night for the first time on that side of the ball. What does De Graaf go out and do but rack up double digit tackles, and lead the team. Pretty impressive for a guy who's started playing defense this season. His value on this side of the ball only helps add depth to the linebacking core. For his effort last week, he was names GWFC defensive player of the week.

 

For Southern Utah, it was certainly a positive sign to see the offense really start to go in the 4^th quarter as Zac Connors took over at quarterback. Connors led two scoring drives and put up solid numbers (13-19, 135 yards) in his relief role. He and Jerome Eason started to really click in that last period, as Eason ended the game with seven grabs for 91 yards. Based on the results on Saturday, it will be interesting to see if Coach Wes Meier entertains thoughts of making a switch back to Connors against Northern Colorado.

 

Payton/Buchanan Update

Last week the Sport Network released its first revision of the Walter Payton, and Buck Buchanan lists. The awards are for the "top player" and "best defensive player" at the I-AA level, respectively. There will be two more revisions this season before the final lists are distributed for voting on Nov. 21^st. Not surprisingly, two Great West players are on the Buchanan list in Cal Poly defensive end, Chris Gocong and Northern Colorado safety Reed Doughty.

 

CK's Take: Gocong and Doughty should be staples on the ballot all the way until the final lists are created for distribution. Both players have been major leaders for their teams, and there's no reason to expect any sort of fall off from either. Here are there up to date stats:

 

Doughty: 76 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, .5 sacks, 1 pd, 1 fr, 2 ff.

Gocong: 44 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 1 pd, 1 fr, 1 ff

 

Doughty's numbers are good enough for 15.2 tackles per game, the best in the nation. The only problem with Doughty: he plays in the same league as Gocong. The Northern Colorado safety would likely be the best defensive player in many other leagues but has spent the last two seasons playing in a conference with Jordan Beck (last year's Buchanan winner) and Gocong (last year's runner up). What's impressive about Gocong is that he draws the focus of each opponents on a weekly basis but has lived up to all the expectations and then some this season. His 11.5 sacks lead the nation and he's on pace to surpass the numbers of a season ago - that being a season he finished 2^nd in voting. If the ballots had been distributed this weekend, Chris Gocong would be the unquestioned #1 on my ballot. Doughty would be in my top three. It's pretty impressive that the Great West boasts two defensive talents of this magnitude.

 

Tony Kays, the Aggies star wide receiver, has slowed down over the past two weekends, but one could certainly make an argument that he deserves to be on the Walter Payton list. If he can pick the pace back up again over the next three weeks, Kays may be on the next revision. Either way, unless a wide receiver has an unbelievably dominant season it will be hard to win the award up against QB's and RB's that put up big numbers.

 

Andre Wilson, the Bears speedy running back is probably the most overlooked player and the guy with the biggest gripe. Wilson's tough running against some quality defenses has been impressive. The junior back is averaging 137 yards per game, which is good enough for 3^rd in the nation. Wilson deserves to be on a list that is littered with players with lesser numbers. For the record, Joe Rubin of Portland State would get my vote at this point.

 

Week 7 Games

This week the action heats back up after only three total games over the past two Saturdays. All six teams are in action with two conference games as a big piece of the slate. A D-II team and a powerhouse I-AA program make up the out of conference opponents. Last week's 1-0 mark put me back on track and pushes the season total to 24-6 (.800)

 

Missouri-Rolla (5-2) at South Dakota State (3-3)

The Jacks look to continue the momentum of a big home win against UC Davis as they host the D-II Missouri-Rolla Miners. Missouri-Rolla is 5-2, but more importantly 3-1 against teams I've never heard of in my 28 years on this planet. (Upper Iowa, Central Methodist, Peru State, and St. Joseph's) I consider myself pretty versed in teams "no one's heard of", which means that adds up to a Jacks blowout. Let's be clear here: SDSU is a much better team than UMR, and should expect to coast this weekend. But the key to this game is really centered on the passing game. SDSU will run the ball with Cory Koenig, and an offensive line that did an excellent job against the Aggies front seven two weeks ago. But South Dakota State aerial attack, namely Andy Kardoes, has yet to really find his rhythm this season. This is the perfect game for the young quarterback to work out the kinks within the flow of game action. Coach Steigelmeier will pound the ball, but I would expect to see him open it up with Kardoes and challenge his passing game to go downfield. Kardoes needs to get Chris Molitor and Josh Davis actively involved in a vertical game, especially with Georgia Southern lingering just around the corner. We'll see how Kardoes performs this week, but the two things I'm sure of is that Koenig goes for over 150 yards rushing, and that Jacks defense allows well below that amount. This one should be over fairly early. South Dakota State 47 Missouri Rolla 10

 

Northern Colorado (2-3) at Southern Utah (0-5)

Southern Utah must have a weird feeling this week as they play games in consecutive weeks, and find themselves in Cedar City. SUU played just its first game in three weeks in their loss to UC Davis, and hosts only their 2^nd game all season at home. The winless Thunderbirds continue to improve each week, but are still looking to bust through with that first win. Last week's effort was highlighted by quarterback Zac Connors and wide receiver Jerome Eason. After his performance in relief it's not clear whether Connors will supplant Was Marshall this weekend as the starter. Whomever, they'll be trying to keep an offense ignited that had its best output a week ago with 377 yards. This game pits the worst GWFC rush defense against the worst rush offense. Something must give this week, and I expect that it will be UNC's defense, which should find things easier against a maturing SUU offense. Southern Utah will have to win this game on Connors or Marshall's are and the talents of the Thunderbirds wide receivers. If they can throw it as well as they did in the 4^th quarter last week, they could make this trip home promising.

 

On the other side of the ball, the best offense, statistically, meets a Southern Utah defense allowing nearly 400 yards of offense. However, The T-Birds held a potent UCD group to just 244 yards of offense a week ago. But they'll have their work cut out for them against this offense. You can't help but be impressed by Northern Colorado's `triple threat' which is arguably the most exciting WR/RB combo in the conference. The Bears wideouts Andy Birkel and Cory Sleeth are 2^nd and 3^rd in conference play averaging 92 and 85 yards, respectively. Both guys have delivered big games this season are a terrific compliment to the workhorse of the offense, Andre Wilson. I mentioned Wilson's talent previously, who has already posted five 100-yard games this season. Expect his carries to be right around that 29 per game he's averaging, especially as redshirt freshman T.J. Swanson gets only his second career start. Even with improvement on both sides of the ball, I still believe that the Bears offense will be too much for this defense. I have a feeling Zac Connors grabs the start and erupts for a big game this weekend which will keep SUU in the game into the 2^nd half. Ultimately, however, Andre Wilson, who seems to wear down his opponents as the game wears on, will be the difference. And the possible return of fullback Garrett Bliss could strengthen this ground attack even more. Look for Wilson to bust a long touchdown run en route to a 150-yard plus effort, and a two score win. Northern Colorado 34 Southern Utah 20. 

 

UC Davis (3-3) at #16 North Dakota State (4-2)

In what has been storied series between the Bison and Aggies these team meet for the 8^th time. The first four games were all played in the D-II playoffs back in the 80's, while the last three have come in this decade. The Bison hold a slim 4-3 advantage in the series.

 

In order to maintain that advantage, the Bison would like to see a repeat performance of last season's game when the Bison physically dominated the Aggies up front. North Dakota State will look to do the same this weekend with a balanced offense that is good for over 150 yards per game on both the ground, and through the air. A year ago the Bison went with the tandem of Kyle Steffes, and Cinque Chapman, who went for 181 yards at 4.2 a clip. The Aggies gave up a few big runs, but at times were able to stymie the run. The biggest issue was Steve Walker who made terrific decisions and always had the big play up his sleeve on third down. This season the Aggies are stronger along the line, while the Bison may not be as dominant as a year ago along the offensive line. However, the Bison are still running the ball well, and Steffes is averaging over 100 per game. They'll go at the Aggies on the ground, but this game will be won and lost on the Aggies ability to slow and contain Steve Walker. This pass defense has played better this season, but that is all dependant upon the pressure the front four can put on Walker. The return of end Pila Fatukala last week was big, even though he only played roughly 15 snaps. His role will be limited again, but the Aggies hope he can provide a continued spark along the line, especially with Ryan Sharp lost to injury. Expect UC Davis to stay will their standard defense that will stack the box to focus on the run game leaving the corners man up on the Bison receivers. Its one reason the Aggies have been dominant at times against the run, but puts a lot of pressure on the Aggie corners. If they come up big, this defense can own games. But it opens up opportunities for players like North Dakota State wide out Kole Hekendorf to get loose. If the Aggies can slow the run, and apply pressure to Walker they can walk out of the Fargo Dome winners. If that offensive line gives Walker the time he had a season ago, the Bison will run away with this game. The last two seasons the better offensive line has decided who won this game.

 

While the Aggies have been stellar when it comes to the opponents scoring, (15.3) the Bison are the best in the conference allowing just two touchdowns. One reason is the Bison's fantastic numbers against the pass, which is good enough for best in the Great West. (130 yards per game) That number is a bit misleading as the Bison have faced a few teams very dedicated to the run. Expect that to change this weekend as the Aggies take to the air more times than not, and force that number higher. That's because UC Davis continues to struggle to run the ball averaging just 2.5 per carry. Fourth string running back turned starter Demario Warren had a tougher going a week ago (10-22) following his 100-yard effort against SDSU. However, Alex Garfio looked healthy (9-45) and should have earned more carries this week. Whether this group can run against NDSU remains to be seen. It will be a difficult chore, but if the Aggies can just keep the Bison occasionally honest, that's all this group can really ask for. That especially true against the big defensive front of Justin Frick, Isaac Lavant, Alvin Robinson, Rodney Thompson, and Joe Lardinois, who have combined for 21.5 tackles for loss. UCD has to win this game by throwing the ball with Jon Grant. The junior quarterback had his troubles with the pressure the Bison applied year ago, but again, against a different defensive line, and an offensive line that was really struggling. This season the Bison line is still talented and very physical, but the Aggies have shown signs improvement along the offensive line, situation pending. They'll be supremely challenged to give Jon Grant the time he needs to make plays, what they couldn't do a year ago. If the Bison have learned anything from the SDSU game it's that by playing UCD soft, giving them the short underneath gains, has proven to be a puzzle the Aggie still haven't solved dating back to last season. I would expect to see a similar defense this Saturday. In the end, I expect the Aggies to have better success against the run than a year ago, but Walker should be able to move the ball against predominantly man coverage outside. The Aggies offense will fare better than 2004 and the seven points they mustered at the end of the year. Grant will have some time to make plays as his line seems to rise to the occasion the tougher the game. Ultimately though, this is homecoming, the Fargo Dome, and despite the Stanford win, the Aggies injuries, and inconsistencies have shown why they're not quite on the level on the Bison in 2005. North Dakota State 24 UC Davis 20

 

Game of the Week
#3 Cal Poly (5-1) at #9 Montana (4-2)

Cal Poly once again finds itself in the spotlight in a game between two top ten teams. Montana was ranked #3 in the nation last week before a home loss to Eastern Washington dropped the Grizzlies to 9^th in this week's poll. Montana has owned this series, leading 9-0, which includes winning a game in 2003, 17-14.

 

Cal Poly offense vs. Grizzlies defense. The Mustangs spread option attack which only seems to get better each week faces its toughest challenge yet in the Montana Grizzlies defense. While Cal Poly comes into play averaging 175 yards on the ground, Montana is only allowing just 85 yards per game. The Grizzlies allow just 2.4 per carry, and the aforementioned stat is good enough for 8^th nationally. The Grizzlies are led by leading tackler, linebacker Tyler Joyce (43 tackles, 3 fl, 1 int) and defensive end Mike Murphy, who's best on the team with six sacks. This group will have to focus on containing quarterback Anthony Garnett, and running back James Noble from getting loose. While Garnett is a concern with his legs, the emergence of Noble gives this offense an extra gear. Noble is 11^th nationally racking up 115 yards per game. What's more impressive is that of the 10 guys listed above the freshman, Noble by far has the highest average per carry at 7.3. Montana has to key on that option and contain Noble. His ability to run really keeps Cal Poly from having to throw too much downfield. Garnett only attempts 16 passes per game, but because of Noble's success, this passing game has been thriving. Garnett is 8^th nationally in efficiency, a number that fans don't expect to see from an option quarterback. The success is three fold: Noble's running softens the defense, Garnett continues to improve as a rollout passer, and the Mustangs receivers. The Mustangs wide-outs are big physical talents who can go up and make a big play. Cal Poly loves to throw the jump ball downfield and let those big boys go and get it. Especially after seeing Eastern Washington do it successfully twice last weekend, expect some more this weekend. The Grizzlies have to find a way to do what those before them haven't, slow the run. They have the talent to do so, but executing will be challenging. If they can force Garnett to throw the ball 25+ times they'll be in excellent shape. If Garnett and the boys keep things honest on the ground, the Mustangs offense will thrive.

 

Montana offense vs. Mustang defense

The Grizzlies offense wants to run the ball with their offensive star, Lex Hilliard. Hilliard comes into play averaging 100 yards per game with six touchdowns. He is the guy that makes this offense, which is still trying to find consistency, go. Last week Eastern Washington bottled him up for just over 50 yards, and with that took away the Griz's ability to move the ball consistently. Even though the Cal Poly defense does a terrific job against the run, let's not forget that they are allowing over 100 per game. They have also allowed two individuals to attain 100 yards this season. Hillard has gone over that number in four of the team's six games. While this Mustang group is very good, if the offensive front can get a good push off the ball, and get to that second level, teams can be successful running the ball against this group. The reason it's imperative that Montana run the ball successfully this weekend is take the heat off their red shirt freshman quarterback Cole Bergquist, making just his third start. In both of the previous starts, the young signal caller has played pretty well, but the degree of challenge will go up a notch this weekend. He can't make any sort of freshman mistakes. He's got to understand what this defense is trying to do and make the proper reads or he'll end up on his back side having thrown multiple picks. If he can get some time, and establish comfort in the pocket, the Griz can have some success against a group that will in man coverage on the outside. Jon Talmage, the Grizzlies top receiver, has to exploit any man coverage he can and make big plays. He may not have a ton of opportunities and each one has to be seized. The biggest key is for the Griz to run the ball this weekend. If they do, they'll move the ball. If they don't Bergquist could have a day to forget.

 

Key matchup. Mustangs front seven vs. Grizzlies offensive line. It's no secret that the Mustangs flex defense creates many offensive problems for opponents. It's been that way for years, but what makes this group as tough as any is the athletes that are executing Coach Rich Ellerson's complex scheme. Now it's up to what has become a pretty experienced line, led by Jeff Marshall, and captain Brad Rhoades, to try to keep the Mustangs at bay. Cal Poly's scheme won't be like any other defense that the Grizzlies have faced all season, which makes the challenge that much greater. The Griz have to make sure each player along the line, as well as the backs, understand their assignments. The last thing they can afford is too allow the nation's sack leader, Chris Gocong, to have a field day. Montana will have to double Gocong, and hope the other Mustangs don't go off. This defense will allow some yards, but predicates itself on eventually making the big play that will stall the opponents drive, and put their offense in terrific field position. Montana's line has to come out of the gate on it's A game. They can't afford any time for adjustment. If Cal Poly is able to take the ball away more than once, this Grizzlies team will be in trouble. But if this line can keep this aggressive front seven contained Montana will be in good shape to come away with a victory.

 

X-Factor. Washington-Grizzly Stadium. Don't be fooled by last week's result. What Eastern Washington did a week ago by coming away winners in Montana is no easy feat. The Grizzlies entered play a week ago with an impressive 35-3 record dating back to the 2001 season. The win by the Eagles was the first, however, in the last 14 attempts by an opponent (which includes the playoffs a year ago). If you get where I'm headed, this is just a difficult place to not only win, but just survive. Washington-Grizzly Stadium makes for one of the best I-AA game day environments, and the Grizzlies fans make for one of the most difficult places to play. The 12^th man of I-AA football can make for a long day and be a real asset to the home team. Cal Poly may be #3, but let's not forget three things. Montana defends their home turf like no other, is coming off a loss, and this will be Cal Poly's first real road challenge.

 

The Roundtable says:

 

Kent Schmidt (3-2 ): "Giving the home record for Montana over years especially after a loss (Montana hasn't lost two in a row since 2000 in Washington-Grizzly Stadium), it is hard to pick Cal Poly in this game even though I feel they are the better team on paper right now. Like all top programs under adversity, I think Montana will find a way to win this week. I will take the Grizzlies by a field goal in a rather low scoring, defensive struggle. Montana 16, Cal Poly 13"

 

Jeff Kolpack (2-4 ): "I was impressed with Cal Poly's team speed and toughness. A win
here and the Mustangs are in good position for a playoff berth. I sense that Montana is
vulnerable this year and Poly is overdue for a postseason invitation. CP 24, Montana 13." 

Chris Solari (3-2): Not a good time to be a Grizzlies fan after a home loss to Eastern 
Washington that again exposed the limitations of Montana's offense. Also, not a good time 
for the Griz to host the Cal Poly, which is well-rested coming off a bye week. The Grizzlies' 
air of invincibility at Washington-Grizzly Stadium has faded, so look for the Mustangs and 
Chris Gocong to keep ascending in the I-AA rankings as Montana continues to plummet. 
CAL POLY 27, MONTANA 7.

 

Mike Mirer (3-3): "The win over North Dakota State made me a believer in Cal Poly. There's not a team in I-AA playing better football than the Mustangs. Montana is always dangerous, especially at home, but the Grizzlies are just down this year. It happens to the best of programs. And Cal Poly is on its way up. Cal Poly 24, Montana 14"

 

The Bottom Line:

This game has all the makings of a war this weekend in Missoula. Consider what this game means to each team. For Montana, a loss could really hurt their playoff hopes considering what remains on the schedule. Also, this is a team that just doesn't lose at home, so defending the home field, especially following last weekend's loss, is of the utmost importance. Cal Poly is on the brink on a #1 national ranking, but understands that there are still doubters. A win against the team that IS I-AA football means more to this program in terms of validation that one can imagine. Remember, this series is 9-0 in favor of Montana. A win could also just about lock in a playoff birth, when their resume to date is considered. Cal Poly has been very good thus far and impressive in their two wins against nationally ranked competition, but let's not forget that both wins were at home. Not only is this their first major road test, but maybe the toughest road test a team could have. The Grizzlies will undoubtedly show up with a sense of desperation as if their playoff lives depended on it. Emotionally they can play off the crazed 20,000+ fans using it as a major advantage in big situations throughout the game. There's something about Montana and the aura that surrounds this program that is intimidating. Cal Poly will fully understand how difficult life in this atmosphere can be come Saturday. But just like we saw in South Bend last weekend, sometimes despite everything working against you, the better team just finds a way to win. Cal Poly 24, Montana 23

Comments. Questions. Email at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com