The Bottom Line Archives
The Bottom Line - Week 6
By Chris Kelly
Cal Poly's first two drives into Bison territory resulted in just two field goals by Nick Coromeles, and a small lead for the home team. The defensive battle fans expected was sure to ensue as the first quarter closed with a 6-0 score. Then the Mustangs exploded, leaving the Bison in the rear view mirror. Anthony Garnett threw three touchdowns passes to push Cal Poly to a 27-0 halftime advantage, and an insurmountable lead. The Mustangs added 10 points in the second half en route to a dominating 37-6 final.
The finals numbers were all impressive on the Mustangs side as running back James Noble had another big day rushing for 165 yards and a score. That along with Garnett's three touchdowns and 165 yards passing accounted for the majority of the Cal Poly offense. Kyle Steffes 94 yards rushing led the Bison effort. That vaunted Mustang defense was superb in limiting the Bison to less than 200 yards of total offense. Once again, the dynamic duo, Kyle Shotwell, and Chris Gocong led the way. Shotwell led the team with 11 tackles, while Gocong had seven including three for loss, and a sack.
CK's Take: What else can I say but that was an unreal, unexpected, and dominating performance by the Mustangs on Saturday night. So what does one get after moving to 4-1 (only loss to I-A Troy) and mowing through two of the better teams in I-AA in North Dakota State, and Montana State? Well, I gave them the #1 ranking in my Sports Network ballot this week. This Cal Poly team has been more impressive than any other I-AA team out there this season, and has looked the best in their "toughest" games. For that, they earned the #1 spot in my ballot, and as seen by the most recent poll, 11 other ballots as well.
My questions is for Cal Poly to be ranked 6th in the nation with 12 1st place votes, who are the voters that have the Mustangs ranked lower than tenth? I just don't' get it - is there a team who has two bigger and more impressive wins over ranked competition? Cal Poly should be in every voters top ten, period. Even if they lose every game from here on out, what they've done to this point warrants that ranking. It's this same school of thought regarding the teams out West that left a deserving Cal Poly team out of the playoffs last year. Those few voters who are still resisting - if there's one thing to understand - it's that Cal Poly is for real.
But while the rankings and such are nice for the fans, this wins is enormous for head Coach Rich Ellerson. Now with impressive victories over MSU, and NDSU the goal of a playoff birth is inching closer. But Cal Poly has a very tough road ahead with these games all remaining: @ Montana, @ UC Davis, Eastern Washington, Idaho State. If Cal Poly goes 2-2 (8-3 final record) over these four games, they have every right to expect a playoff birth considering what would be an impressive resume. We'll cross that bridge if it comes to that point.
As for North Dakota State - is this just a blip in the radar against a very good team? Yeah, most likely. Cal Poly is a tremendous football team, so the loss can be explained. However, for a team that prides themselves on physical play, the result was an eye opener as the Bison were dominated up front all night. The Bison will be just fine, but maybe the expectations were just a little too aggressive for this group just in its second year of transition to the ranks of I-AA. Don't get me wrong, this is still a top 25 quality team, but I think too much was expected of this group. After the Northwestern win, I started to throw out `what if' scenario's regarding this team, so I'm as much to blame as anyone. A couple stumbles especially in this situation (with no playoffs on the line) just creates opportunities for growth and improvement from Coach Craig Bohl's group. You look at the film, make some adjustments, and get ready for the next game. The Bison's next chance to get back on track comes in two weeks as they face UC Davis.
Speaking of the Aggies, their comeback against South Dakota State fell just short as Jackrabbit corner Hank McCall broke up a two point conversion to secure a 16-14 Jackrabbit victory. South Dakota State got on the board first behind the strength of Cory Koenig 53 yards run, which set up an Andy Kardoes 2-yard run to put the Jacks ahead 7-0. Three Parker Douglass field goals, including a 54-yarder, gave South Dakota State a 16-0 advantage at the end of three quarters. The Aggies would battle back scoring twice, but the 2nd two point conversion was broken up by McCall, who also led the team in tackles and picked off a pass.
Cory Koenig led a strong rushing effort with 141 yards, while UCD countered with Demario Warren had his first career 100-yard game (114) on 21 carries. Despite the win, the Jacks were held to just 267 yards of total offense. Safety Jonathan Barsi led the Aggies with 11 tackles.
CK's Take: The morning paper in Brookings, South Dakota referred to it as "Saturday Stunner", and appropriately so. I don't think many people outside of South Dakota expected this Jackrabbit team to knock off a UC Davis team that looked so strong over its past two outings. But the Jacks used strong running from Cory Koenig, great defense, and the leg of Parker Douglass to do just that. Cory Koenig ran for 141 yards but the set the tone early with strong running that forced the Aggie to respect it all game, even though Andy Kardoes struggled again last weekend. Koenig rushed for 97 yards on just nine carries in the first quarter, which set his team up with a 10-0 lead. Defensively, the Jacks mainly rushed four, and were able to put decent pressure on Grant with that group. But more importantly, their secondary took away any sort of big plays down the field, instead forcing the Aggies to move in small chunks. Each series (until the 4th quarter) that defense, led by Hank McCall made a play to stall UCD. Finally, what about Parker Douglass? His leg eventually made the difference as he kicked three field goals, but none important as the 54-yard bomb he drilled early in the third quarter. Each field goal Douglass was able to nail all helped create that 16-point lead which proved insurmountable, but the 54-yarder was impressive to say the least. It still took a terrific play by McCall on a second two-point conversion to keep the Aggies from tying the game. It's only fitting that the defense put the final nail in the coffin, especially McCall who had a tremendous game in keeping the Aggies top wide receiver, Tony Kays, at bay all afternoon.
In terms of the Aggies, one has to wonder what happened to the group that played so well against Stanford and Sacramento State. The run defense was battered a bit in the first quarter, allowing Koenig to run all over them. They settled down over the final three quarters but still allowed a healthy average (4.1) to Koenig. And the offense again reverted to its ways of the first two games, when things weren't coming easy. Where was the offense in the first three quarters? They really struggled to move the ball until the 4th quarter arrived and a sense of urgency was there. But that was too little too late for this group. UCD seemed to struggle with what South Dakota State did on defense forcing the Aggies to stay short with their passing game, and really taking away anything downfield. The loss of the Aggies top defensive lineman Ryan Sharp compounds what was already a tough loss, and scuttlebutt is that his season may be over. The Jeckyl and Hyde season of the Aggies continues this weekend as the face as a winless Southern Utah squad.
Week 6 Game
You may notice the singular `game' reference above as the Great West is a part of just one game this week, which involves a conference matchup. I try to bounce back from my first winless week of predictions at 0-2 last weekend, which pushed my record to 23-6. No game of the week this week, but it, along with the roundtable, will return next week.
Southern Utah (0-4, 0-0) @ UC Davis (2-3, 0-1)
This week's game between the Aggies and Thunderbirds marks the 10th time the schools have met in a series that began in 1993. UC Davis leads the series 6-3 having captured all four games at Toomey field, the site of this week's game. Last year Southern Utah rode a fine defensive effort in Cedar City to top the Aggies 19-15.
This week the Aggies try to get their offense on track after spending most of last game in a lull. The most interesting part of last week's game was the role reversal the Aggie saw in the facets of their offense that worked. When the offense has struggled this season, the running game was assuredly a piece of that. However, last Saturday the Aggies had their best rushing effort from an individual in 2005 as red shirt freshman and the 4th string running back Demario Warren went for 114 yards. Warren's effort was a great sign for an offense that has had only limited success in the rushing game over the past year and a half. Now UCD hopes that Warren can continue his success this week which can only help open up the passing game, as well as the threat of play action. Southern Utah's front seven has struggled against the run this season ranking fifth in the conference allowing over 200 yards on the ground per game. They've struggled to keep teams contained on the ground, something the Aggies hope the can exploit with Warren. The biggest bright spot on defense is converted linebacker Steve Smith. The converted safety is showing why he is a playmaker no matter where he lines up on the field as leads the team with 34 tackles, and has three for loss, as well as a pick. The Aggies rushing attack has only shown small capability to run consistently this season, and the T-Birds don't want them gaining much more confidence than they already picked up last weekend. Thus, they need to get off to a strong start against the Aggies and take away the ground game. The pass defense hasn't been much better for SUU, which ranks last in conference play. UCD runs a one back, potentially explosive offensive, which at key times has disappeared this season. If the T-Birds can approach defending the Aggies the way the Jacks did they may have a shot to control this offense. They'll have to apply pressure mainly with the front four, dropping seven and taking away anything downfield. SDSU was willing to give UCD short gains, forcing them to work hard to get downfield. Their secondary consistently made a play every time the Aggies tried to work beyond that short boundary. Which offense shows up for Davis this weekend will go a long way in determining who wins this game.
On the other side of the ball, the Thunderbirds offense gets its first chance to show signs of progress after a three week break. Southern Utah has taken each of the past two Saturdays off with byes, one of which was planned, the other unplanned (McNeese State) due to Hurricane Rita. Wes Marshall, a red-shirt sophomore, is listed as the starter at quarterback this week, taking on that role for the third straight game. Marshall took over after Zac Connors re-aggravated an injury three games ago. The T-Birds have struggled with any sort of offensive rhythm as they come into play averaging just 254 yards, including just 66 yards rushing. That stat plays right into the hands of a very talented Aggies run defense, which until last week had not allowed a back to surpass 100-yards rushing. This group is still only allowing 94 per game, best in the conference. The Aggies were dealt a serious blow with the loss of their top lineman Ryan Sharp last week, but may have a limited return of the talented Pila Fatukala on Saturday. Expect UCD to bottle up the run which means that Southern Utah will need to challenge the Aggie through the air to win this game. The biggest problem is that Marshall is completing just 35% of his passes and has thrown five picks this season. He needs to improve those numbers drastically this weekend if SUU has a chance to walk away winners. The hope is that two weeks off has given him a chance to become more comfortable with his new role. Marshall has two very explosive wide receivers in Joey Hew-Len, and Jerome Eason, but has to be more effective in utilizing them more. As the Aggies slow the run, the pressure will be on Marshall to make things happen, something he has not been able to accomplish is the early part of the season. Just looking at this game it's fairly easy to predict a UC Davis win as one breaks down all the matchups. But there's a couple interesting things to think about this weekend. How will Southern Utah perform with two weeks to work out the kinks? Will they be flat, or show improvement over what they've demonstrated in their first four outings? Also, UC Davis showed little focus last week in a game that to a man the Aggies believe they should have won. After the ups and down of the early season how does this team respond to an uninspiring offensive effort a week ago?
Both of these teams have something to prove, but ultimately the Aggies have too much talent. Southern Utah is still a very young team trying to find itself. Each week they've shown improvement, but there is still some work to do for the group from Cedar City. UC Davis' defense should lead the way, as the offense should be able to work out some kinks before a big road trip to North Dakota. UC Davis 31 Southern Utah 14.
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