The Bottom Line - Week 5

By Chris Kelly

Texas State looked dominant in their 42-12 rout of South Dakota State on Saturday night. The Bobcats got off to a strong start with an 80-yard opening drive capped by a K.R. Carpenter four yard touchdown run to give the Bobcats a lead they would never relinquish. Texas State would also score on its next three possessions pushing their halftime lead to 28-12.

Barrack Nealy led a big offensive night with nearly 300 yards in total offense, (121 rushing, 164 receiving) which included a 36-yard scoring run in the third quarter. In all, the Bobcats rolled up over 300 yards in total rushing, as they dominated the line of scrimmage all night long. For the Jacks, Cory Koenig had another solid game running the ball surpassing 120 yards on 26 carries. Billy Ray Kirch led the defense with 12 tackles.

CK's Take: As a Jacks fan, sure, you're not happy with the last three weeks results- all losses. But last week's loss can't be as discouraging if only for the fact that Texas State is that good. I really believe that this team may be one of the best five teams in the nation led by maybe the most dynamic player in I-AA. Voters need to seriously start considering Barrack Nealy as major Walter Payton candidate. As he's become more consistent with his arm he's become one of the best players in the nation. This Texas State team is extremely athletic and very physical up front. For that reason, a Jacks defense that looked solid in losses the previous two weekends can't be held too accountable. They've been very good this season, with just a few small lapses. If they continue to give the same effort each week out this group will keep their team in most games.

However, this SDSU offense has to find a way to ignite a spark. They are consistent with the running game, be it Anthony Watson or Koenig, but quarterback Andy Kardoes has not been able to make the big plays his team needs. Last weekend a 9 for 18 effort was less than stellar, especially considering that three of those incompletion went for picks the other way. Kardoes is still a young quarterback maturing into his leadership role, but with five game now under his belt, its time for him to start cashing in on some the opportunities. Kardoes has been a little banged up with a sprained ankle, so don't read too much into the fact that he was replaced in the second half last weekend. He'll be the starter on Saturday, if the ankle is in good shape. Speaking of next weekend, things won't get any easier as the Jacks face another tremendous defense in UC Davis.

In the other weekend's non-conference game, the Great West picked up a solid victory as North Dakota State topped Nicholls State 26-13 in a defensive slugfest. Neither team had more than 300 yards of total offense, as NSU out gained the Bison 297-290. North Dakota State jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead on the strength of a Kyle Steffes run, and Steve Walker touchdown pass. But it was Nicholls State, despite playing in front of a raucous Fargo Dome crowd that roared back with two impressive drives to cut the lead to 17-13. Steve Walker responded with a touchdown drive that would ultimately be the game wining score. But the game wasn't decided until defensive lineman Rodney Thompson sacked Colonel quarterback Yale Vannoy for a safety.

Kyle Steffes once again found that 100-yard mark rushing for 102 yards and one score on 22 carries. Steffes has now run for 100-yards in his career 10 times, including four of five games this season. Middle Linebacker Joe Mays erupted for 14 tackles, two of which went for loss.

CK's Take: Last week's scene had a familiar feeling. Two weekends ago, Travis Lulay led his Montana State troops on a long, efficient march in what would prove to be the game winning score against the Bison. This week, after seeing the Colonels roar back into the game, it was the Bison who had the answer. Steve Walker led the North Dakota State on a crucial seven play, 62-yard drive that used up over four minutes of clock. No, Walker didn't have a big statistical day (10-17, 95 yards) but when it counted he led the Bison on a big drive that resulted in a touchdown pass to tight end Andy Delabarre. Just another day on the job for Walker.

What was a bit surprising is how well NSU ran the ball against this physical Bison front, which has always been tough against the option. Last season NDSU allowed only three per carry to this group, but gave up over five yards per touch to NSU on Saturday. Credit does have to go to this Nicholls State team, who is a more physical bunch than a season ago, and has certainly improved their option attack as illustrated by their efforts against I-A Indiana. The Bison had tremendous field position all game, (avg. start - NDSU 48) which was a huge reason why NDSU was able to jump out to early lead. In grabbing the lead they put some pressure on quarterback Yale Vannoy. I felt that if Vannoy threw more than 12 times, the Bison would win this game. Sure enough, Vannoy threw 16 times, completing less than 50% of his passes, including an interception. Despite the rushing success the Colonels had the Bison finished with another strong defensive effort. They held NSU to less than 300 yards total offense, had seven tackles for loss, picked off a pass, and notched a safety. This group, led by an emerging Joe Mays, continues to make plays when it counts.

Cal Poly 31 Northern Colorado 14

Quick Hits: Chris Gocong is making his bid for a second consecutive Mustang to win the Buck Buchanan award widely known. He picked up another 3.5 sacks, which pushes his total to 11 on the season, which is 3.5 sacks better than the next highest number. The Mustangs defense forced three turnovers, and picked up five sacks as their defense continued to dominate. Andre Wilson's 35 carry, 155 yard effort is a big statement that he may just be the best back in the Great West. He's had a terrific start to his senior year.

East Coast Bias?

I expected to write two weeks ago that it was the first time three Great West teams had made their way into the Top 25 poll, but unbelievably that feat has yet to be accomplished. UC Davis now sits at #26 and 27, respectively in the ESPN/USA Today, and Sport Network poll, and I sit here scratching my head trying to understand how it's possible. Somehow South Carolina State was No. 20 and their loss dropped them just four spots. I guess their three impressive wins against Alabama State, Winston Salem-State, (who?) and Bethune Cookman warranted their spot. Youngstown State, who last week sat ranked No. 34 beat Illinois State and jumped 12 spots to No. 22 this week. Am I missing something or is that one of the biggest jumps ever in a poll? Did they beat a top 10-team?.....by 20? (Violently scratching head) Let us not also forget that five of the bottom eight teams in last week's poll lost. How about the other two loss teams in the bottom half of the poll - William & Mary, Georgia Southern, and Northwestern State? Can any of those teams say they had the #1 I-AA team in the nation on the ropes all game only to succumb in the final minute? Are their two combined losses to teams in the top 35 by a total of six points? No they are to the likes of unranked Rhode Island, Wofford, and unproven McNeese State. Can any of them boast that one of their wins was against a I-A BCS school in which they completely dominated the game? Speaking of McNeese State, I wonder if they had beat Stanford where they would be ranked currently? Think about it for a minute.

West Coast Dominance?

This week marked the debut of the GPI (Gridiron Power Index), the BCS-style ranking for I-AA and the Great West is well represented - in the top 10. North Dakota State opens up at #2 just behind undefeated #1 New Hampshire. Cal Poly is ranked 4^th, while UC Davis is ranked 10^th in the poll. Big Sky teams Montana and Montana State are both in the top ten as well at #5, and #7, respectively. These GPI rankings may not be far off from where these teams really should be ranked. It again begs the question - is the Great West the best conference in I-AA??

Week 5 Games

This week's game marks two big conference battles that will go a long way in deciding the favorite to capture the crown this season. One features a game marked with revenge, while the other is one of the top games in I-AA thus far in 2005. Last week, a perfect 3-0 record runs my total to a strong 23-4 (.851)

U.C. Davis (2-2, 0-0) @ South Dakota State (2-3, 0-1)

The Aggies and Jackrabbits meet this season in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in an effort to take more Jackrabbit home games or the center of the state, where many SDSU alums reside. The teams have met three times over the past eight years, and the Aggies hold a 2-1 advantage in those games. The game that is remembered the most is last year's 52-0 season opening thrashing the Aggies laid on the Jacks. Not for one moment has SDSU forgotten about that feeling, anxiously awaiting this game in 2005.

If the Jacks are to exact some revenge from the game a year ago it will take an inspired effort from the offense, which has been struggling to punch in scores over the past few weekends. Albeit, the Jacks have faced some stellar defenses, they have really struggled to generate a consistent passing game. The aerial attack is led by Andy Kardoes, who as we discussed last week is still looking for that breakout game at quarterback. Having completed just 35% of his passes over the previous two weeks, Kardoes hit 50

% last week but also threw three interceptions. He spent the last part of the game on the bench resting a bum ankle, and questionable heading into play this week. If Kardoes can't go then red shirt Freshman Ryan Berry would get the nod. The one thing that can't be overlooked is that the passing struggles can't all be put on Kardoes as his offensive line has had some troubles pass blocking, leaving the young signal caller minimal time to make plays. What makes matters worse is the Jacks offensive line is pretty banged up heading into this weekend's game. Pre-season all conference performer Taylor Murray suffered a concussion last week, and Paul Keizer left the game early last week injured. Neither may be able to go this weekend, which makes improving a struggling area even tougher. Somehow, though, Kardoes/Berry and the big boys up front need to find some rhythm as UC Davis brings to town arguably the best front four the Jacks have faced. The Aggies, led by defensive lineman Ryan Sharp, James Amos, and John Faletoese, has been a menacing bunch over their first four games. South Dakota State's offensive line has to contain this group from spending too much time in their quarterbacks face all night, especially as they attempt to ignite the passing attack. On the bright side, the Jacks have been running the ball very well all year with two strong backs, Anthony Watson, and Cory Koenig. However, Watson, who has two 1000-yard seasons under his belt as well as two 100-yard games this season, appears to be the odd man out heading into this week's contest. SDSU coaches have been impressed with Koenig's toughness and ability to hit the hole hard, in comparison to Watson who has been doing too much dancing near the line of scrimmage. This is further backed by some tough running against a strong Montana defense, and 100-yard efforts versus Cal Poly and Texas State. Koenig will be severely tested this week, and has to hold up if the Jacks are to win this side of the ball. The Aggies come into play with the 6^th best rushing defense in I-AA, allowing just 72 yards per game. To boot, this defense gets back their playmaking safety Jonathan Barsi, who hasn't played since week one. The Jacks need another tough effort from Koenig, and Kardoes to play better, finding his talented wide receiver Josh Davis whenever possible. Davis is a big talent that has been underutilized in the early part of the season. If Kardoes can't go, this offense is probably in trouble. UCD will focus on stopping the run, and if they can slow it, life could be tough for whichever quarterback starts. With a banged up line, and possibly a red shirt frosh at quarterback, Koenig will have to carry the load if the Jacks have a shot.

If this game was played three weeks ago, the above scenario would be the same on this side of the ball. After two games, the Jacks defense looked fantastic while the Aggies offense was struggling to find their rhythm, as well as cash in on red zone opportunities. Three weeks later, SDSU's defense is still a talented group, but the Aggies offense has looked explosive against Stanford and Sacramento State. As the offensive line has come together, quarterback Jon Grant and the passing game has looked strong led by a very good group of receivers. The biggest questions are how do the Jacks slow the most prolific receiver in I-AA? Tony Kays has 47 catches and nearly 600 yards in just four games, and the Jacks have to find a way to slow the junior. Most of the time Kays finds himself in the slot, matched up against a safety, which will always be an advantage for UCD. South Dakota State will have no choice but to double him all game, opening up Blaise Smith, and Brandon Rice in man coverage. The Aggies have struggled to run the ball all season, but do expect their most productive rusher, Alex Garfio back this weekend. Still, SDSU must keep the Aggies run game at bay, and pressure Jon Grant. The key to beating the Aggies is to cause the offensive line problems, which in turn can force Jon Grant into quick throws and mistakes. Portland State was able to it in the second game of the season, and the Jackrabbits need to do it this week. Clearly, Grant is past some struggles he had in the first two weeks, and if given time will pick apart a good Jacks secondary. South Dakota State is going to struggle to move the ball this weekend. Koenig has run for 100 yards the past two weeks, but don't be surprised if he doesn't surpass 70 this weekend against a terrific run defense. Thus if the pressure is on Kardoes, the Jacks offense is likely to stall again. South Dakota State's front seven has to bring all sorts of pressure on Jon Grant and make life difficult. They have to confuse the offensive line, and force the Aggies into mistakes, which will keep this a low scoring game. Unfortunately this offense is clicking and the line is playing as well as it has all year. Hank McCall may help bring Tony Kays back to earth, but the Ags have enough weapons to keep the scoreboard lit up. UC Davis 27 South Dakota State 10

Game of the Week: #12 North Dakota State @ #9 Cal Poly

Not only is this the game of the week, but has to be the biggest games nationally, and certainly one of the best of the year. These two teams meet for the fourth time, with each team having posted two victories. Last season, the Mustangs won a hard fought 13-10 battle in the Fargodome.

Cal Poly offense vs. Bison defense

Cal Poly's offense isn't necessarily a group that strikes fear into the opposition. They're only averaging 311 yards a game, which includes just 144 yards through the air. But this group is an efficient one that is a perfect compliment to their terrific defense. Simply, if you make a mistake they'll capitalize on it. Quarterback Anthony Garnett is the leader of an offense that is fair to call mildly conservative. They don't take a lot of big chances downfield, which minimizes mistakes. They've been successful this season on the ground averaging nearly 170 a game at 4.2 per rush. Cal Poly likes to hand it off to their red-shirt freshman running back James Noble, run the option, as well as mix in some designed runs with Garnett. The bread and butter is to control the ball with the run, and then utilize Garnett mostly as a sprint out quarterback in a short to midrange passing game. When Garnett does throw deep, he likes to throw up for grabs and let his big wide receivers go and get it. The Bison corners, Bobby Babich and Scott Walter, need to keep one of Garnett's jump balls from becoming the difference in this game. The main Mustang challenge this week will be to sustain long drives against a strong Bison defense. North Dakota State comes into play allowing just nine points per game, good enough for 3^rd nationally. The numbers tell you that NDSU is weaker against the run, but that may not necessarily be true. Two of the teams the Bison have faced ran the ball almost exclusively, which inflated those numbers. This is a group that plays the run very well, and is more than familiar with how to defend the option successfully. NDSU has a talented front seven led by linebacker Joe Mays, (46 tackles, 5 for loss) and defensive lineman Justin Frick (25 tackles, 4.5 for loss). Their primary job will be to first focus on that option, and then keep Garnett from making plays with his legs. They'll likely bring an 8^th man in the box, and force Garnett to prove that he can consistently make the big throws to move the ball. North Dakota State HAS to make Garnett beat him with his arm. If Cal Poly can run the ball successfully this weekend, the Bison will be in trouble. For the Bison, they must slow the run, and hope `Stangs defense doesn't set the offense up like they have all year with terrific field position. The Bison defense wants to make this Mustang offense prove they can put together long drives. If they even slightly lose the field position battle, they'll lose this game.

North Dakota State offense vs. Mustang defense

It's no secret that the key to success on the Bison offense is behind the legs of Kyle Steffes, who favors a straight ahead power running game. Last season Steffes took 45% of the carries, and that number has jumped to 54% this season as he becomes not only the focal point of the offense, but also the main back. North Dakota State will occasionally throw in change of pace back, Shamen Washington whose pure speed makes him dangerous if out in space. At one time Steffes split carries, but now he takes the majority - and for a reason. He's averaging over 110 yards per game at a 5.1 per carry clip. He's already had some opportunities to run against tough defenses this season, and he'll get another opportunity this weekend. The Cal Poly front seven is as quick as they come in swarming to the ball, and thrive on stopping the run. Last season they were near impossible to run against, but this season have shown a small chink in their armor. They're still very good against the run ranking 25^th (103 yards per game) in the nation. But in the last two weeks they've allowed two consecutive backs, Cory Koenig, and Andre Wilson to surpass the 100-yard mark rushing, a feat they didn't allow all of last season. To boot, both backs averaged over 4.4 yards per carry. The biggest key on this side of the ball will be a big, physical offensive lines ability to open holes and Steffes' ability to run against this front seven. The second key is not turning the ball over against one of the best defensive schemes in I-AA. Coach Rich Ellerson's bunch makes a living frustrating the opposing offense with their stunting, confusing, pressure from all directions defense. The Mustangs love to bring up a safety into the box to help with the aforementioned task of stopping the run, but also to help in their well designed blitz packages aimed at quarterback frustration. The upside is that Cal Poly spends most of the game in `man up' on the outside. That means Kole Heckendorf, and Marques Johnson will have many opportunities in man coverage that the Bison must take advantage of on Saturday. The downside is the Mustangs apply so much pressure that they are absolutely the best in forcing the opposition into mistakes. Yes, the focus this week will be not turning over the ball to a group that has already forced 11 turnovers, and scored two defensive touchdowns. But it's not just about that with this defense - it's about the work that is required to actually put six on the board. Their goal is force the opposition to start on their own 20 and nickel and dime their way down the field. Eventually, they believe they'll make a play, because they just don't allow big plays. That doesn't just focus on turnovers, either. They know if you have to go 80-yards that eventually it will be a turnover, a sack (which they lead the nation in), a tackles for loss, or even a batted down pass that may be the difference. Cal Poly just needs to do what they've been doing, but tighten up against the run. The Bison need to pound the ball with Steffes, including trying to run outside which Andre Wilson had success with last week. Bison Quarterback Steve Walker has to have poise, hang in the pocket, and not allow this Mustang defense to force the mistakes that will do the Bison in this weekend.

Key Matchup: Chris Gocong, DE, Cal Poly vs. Tim Popowski/Nate Safe.

Chris Gocong is listed as the "quick end" in the Mustangs defensive scheme. I couldn't think of a more appropriate name for the best defensive end in the country, whose quickness to the quarterback is unmatched at the I-AA level. Gocong has been a force since the start of last season when he registered 17.5 sacks to lead the nation. This season he's on pace for 24 sacks having already notched 11 (also leads the nation) through just five games. Now it's up the Bison to find a way to contain Gocong from becoming a menace all afternoon on Saturday. Gocong won't spend all game at one defensive end spot, thus it will be up to a pair of tackles, Tim Popowski, and Nate Safe to try to slow Gocong. Popowski is the leader of the Bison offensive line and arguably the best tackle in the conference. Currently, he's started 31 of the last 32 games for the Bison. It will be fun to watch these two go at it this weekend. Nate Safe is starting his sixth consecutive game this weekend, and has done a solid job thus far in 2005. Both guys won't be without help on Saturday - expect NDSU to spend much of the game giving help when possible with a tight end, and fullback. If Gocong does what he did last weekend against UNC, he'll single handedly end numerous Bison drives. If these two tackles can slow the `sack daddy' the Bison offense will be in good shape. 

X-Factor: James Noble, RB, Cal Poly. If you've been reading this column over the past couple weeks, then you've heard me rave about the Mustangs slotback James Noble. Noble has helped to ignite the Mustangs offense having run for 403 yards, and four touchdowns. What's impressive about these numbers is that Noble didn't even play in the Mustangs first game, and has put up the aforementioned numbers on just 59 carries, good enough for 7.0 per carry average. He's has been the catalyst to this offense, which relies a great deal on its ability to run the ball. Noble is the strength in that running game, whose numbers will be tested severely by a physical Bison defense. The Mustangs offense relies on good field position and a strong running game to hit that 28 point per game average. Noble's ability to move the ball on the ground is the key to keeping Garnett from having to become a full time passer. When that happens it certainly favors the opposition. The Bison need to force Garnett to throw more than his average of 16 times per game. If the Bison take away the Noble, and the Mustang option, they can shut down this offense. If Noble keeps doing what he does best, Cal Poly can drop another Montana State type score on the Bison.

The Roundtable says:

Kent Schmidt (2-2): "It is too bad this matchup is this early in the season as it appears 
these are the two best teams in the GWFC.  In any event, this game will go a long way in 
deciding the Great West Football Conference title.  Both schools have posted impressive 
wins against some of I-AA's best teams-notably NDSU defeating Northwestern State on 
the road and Cal Poly beating Montana State at home.  Turnovers, to me, will be the likely 
determining factor in this tightly matched game.  The statistics seem to slightly favor NDSU 
in this game but I still think the Mustangs will prevail on a last second field goal in a very 
low scoring game.  

17-14 Mustangs"

Jeff Kolpack (2-3): "Cal Poly has been living off of other team's mistakes, which is a fine way to live by the way. The Mustangs' defense has created several turnovers that have led to points for the offense and ultimately victory for the Mustangs. But on Saturday, they face a team that is careful with the football. North Dakota State has committed only three turnovers -- two interceptions that were not the quarterback's fault -- and one fumble on a center-to-QB exchange. If the Bison get a running game going, we're looking at a potential surprising outcome here.

NDSU 20, Cal Poly 14."

Chris Solari (2-2): "NDSU at Cal Poly: This is the kind of marquee matchup that Great 
West athletic directors drooled over when forming the league in 2004 - two top-10 teams 
battling for the conference championship. (And for the record, my pick for last week's 
game was Texas State 42, SDSU 17.) The Mustangs' defense has proven every bit as 
staunch as last year's model, but the Bison are a pretty salty bunch as well. The difference 
will be whether the NDSU defensive backs can stop Cal Poly's gargantuan receivers and 
QB Anthony Garnett's jump balls downfield. I say one deep pass makes the difference, 
and home-field advantage wins out in a Great West slugfest. 

Cal Poly 17, NDSU 10."

Mike Mirer (3-2): " Poly's stat sheet is my favorite in the conference because you find
gems like this: Of the Mustang's 21 offensive scoring drives this year, 12 of them have
started at midfield or in opponent's territory. That's good special teams and great defense.
If any team is geared to stop the Mustangs, however, it's the Bison. NDSU has turned the
ball over exactly three times in five games. It's an offense that doesn't make silly mistakes.
If Steve Walker can play a clean game, Cal Poly's offense won't have the great field
position it has relied on this year. Walker has put together a pretty impressive track record
in his young career, and I like this as another notch in his belt. After all, I picked
North Dakota State to win the conference before the season and I see no reason to
change horses -- so to speak -- now.

NDSU 13, Cal Poly 10"

The Bottom Line:

I was excited about this game on Monday - so I know how Bison and Mustang fans have to feel. This should be a knock down drag out war on Saturday afternoon in San Luis Obispo. Last season, as expected the two teams combined for just 23 points as the Mustangs squeaked out a 13-10 win. This season both teams are playing as well, if not even better, than a year ago. Simply comparing scores against Montana State would say that, especially at home, the Mustangs run away with this one. But that's why football is such a game of matchups, which will once again make this a down to the wire finish. Regardless of how teams have run against this Mustang defense over the past two weeks, Cal Poly's defense will make some huge plays that set the Bison back. But the difference in this game will not be Kyle Steffes, it will be Steve Walker. Last season, Tony Stauss' interception that was returned for a touchdown by the Mustangs was the difference. This season, Walker's calm demeanor in pressure situations will be the difference. I think the Bison will turn it over a couple times, but Walker will be able to overcome those and lead his team on three or four scoring drives. The Bison will not allow a defensive score, and will, for the most part, not allow the Mustangs to start with great field position all night. This Cal Poly defense is great, but the offense can't keep up if the Bison can contain where they start with the ball. The Bison take a huge step toward a conference title winning a higher than expected scoring game. North Dakota State 23 Cal Poly 17

Questions. Comments. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com