The Bottom Line - Week 6
By Chris Kelly
With two key conference games played this past Saturday, the race for the league crown is starting to take some shape. The two teams that emerged victorious in those battles were expected, but it wasn't without some struggles. I think the one thing we've learned in the early part of this season- nothing is going to come easy, and this will be one heck of a stretch drive based on what we've already seen. Let's get to the action....
South Dakota State gave Cal Poly all they could handle and more in falling to the Mustangs 14-7. It was a key 82-second stretch in the second quarter that would prove to be the difference as Cal Poly scored twice. The Mustangs offense was the benefactor of great field position thanks to the defense. Geno Randle, who had 92 yards rushing, would take a score in from 8 yards out. After stopping the Jacks, the Mustangs special team star Darrell Jones returned a punt 89 yards to put Cal Poly up by two touchdowns.
CK'S Take: South Dakota State gave it everything they had on Saturday night and came very close to pulling a big upset. They had more first downs, more yards and held the time of possession advantage. The Jacks will look back at this game knowing they had their chances. Cal Poly turned the ball over four times including three in the first quarter. Those three turnovers gave the Jackrabbits the ball on Mustang 35, 35 and 49 respectively. SDSU came away with no points on any of those drives. Wow, does that scream missed opportunity! They had the field position won in the 1st quarter, but were held to 18 net yards in that quarter. Again it was the Cal Poly defense that answered the call when they needed big stops.
But what about the Cal Poly offense? As in, where is it? The Mustangs were held to just 225 yards, and turned it over four times. Without this defense, this team might be in some trouble. The offense just can't seem to find consistency, and it's the same reason that was of concern to me in the preseason, the quarterback play. Coach Rich Ellerson went with Cordell Webb to start for the third straight game, but ended with John Mende due to Webb's ineffectiveness and inability to hold onto the ball. They can't afford to do that this week against a confident Southern Utah bunch. More on that game later.
In
CK's Take: This game was truly a tale of two halves. The Aggies dominated the first half, while the Bears did the same in the second half. It was a pretty sloppy game as the Aggies had two field goals blocked and committed 10 penalties, while UNC turned the ball over four times. It's seems to be another week and again I'm preaching the same thing. The Bears had opportunities to take this right down to the wire and possibly even win the game.
Enough of the game analysis, how about Vincent Jackson? This guy is simply amazing. After struggling in the first two weeks to do anything,
Quick hits: Nice win for the T-Birds program, as this team continues to get better and impress week-to-week. McNeese is down from past seasons; as they are typically a top-10 team, but let's not take anything away from this win. SUU still went on the road, and absolutely pasted a program that is well respected at the I-AA level. SUU is a dangerous team, is now through the tough part of their schedule and now has a huge game against Cal Poly forthcoming. Coach Wes Meier has to love the way his team is playing, and that's he homeward bound for the first time this season. Things are aligning nicely for the Thunderbirds.
In the final contest involving a Great West team,
Quick hits: This is precisely what I had expected with two pretty good defenses, and one good offense; a slow, low scoring game. With a game against Carson-Newman and a bye week, the Bison were well prepared to handle the option, as NSU never really got any consistency going on offense. A huge key to the game was the Bison's ability to control the line of scrimmage with their big boys up front, which held a 30-pound advantage along the line. NDSU rushed for 224 yards against NSU's 125 (2.5 per carry) Again, the GWFC picks up another quality win against an opponent from a respected conference. We'll know exactly how the Bison figure into the conference race after this weekend's battle with South Dakota State.
GWFC Items of Interest
- Last weekend's UC Davis win over
- The Great West continues to make an impact on the national scene. For the first time, two Great West teams are ranked in both the Sports Network, and ESPN/USA Today poll. Three teams are on the verge of being ranked in Don Hansen's poll. Here are the current rankings by poll.
*Sports Network: Cal Poly (10), UC Davis (24)
*ESPN/USA Today: Cal Poly (10), UC Davis (25)
*Don Hansen: Cal Poly (12), UC Davis (21),
Dakota State.
- This week the first GPI (Gridiron Power Index) was released by I-AA.org. The website refers to the GPI as "the BCS-style ranking for I-AA and a top indicator of playoff selection...". As a conference, the Great West was ranked second. An impressive ranking for the first year conference! The teams were ranked as follow: Cal Poly (8), UC Davis (14),
- The Great West is home to the top three punt returners in the nation. Jesse Oliva (UC Davis) is No. 1 averaging 28 yards per return, Ryan Filipe (
- Vincent Jackson, Jordan Beck and Nick DiPadova who were all on the initial Walter Payton and Buck Buchanan lists and are still there after the first revision. The awards, which are given to the top offensive player and top defensive player in I-AA are given out the evening prior to the national championship game, December 16th. The revised list, which was released on Wednesday, Oct 6th will be revised twice more before final ballots are distributed in late November.
Week 6 Games
Week six has arrived and with it two more conference battles that will tell us some more about the Great West race. In the other two non-conference games, the GWFC teams take on a D-II opponent, and a team in only a second year of football after a near two decade hiatus. As for the picks, I was a perfect 4-0 last week, moving to 19-3 (.863) on the season. This week's games provide more of a challenge as three could go either way. Now to the action....
UC Davis @ Western Oregon
The UC Davis Aggies return to the road for the second week in a row to take on an opponent they have owned over the years - Division II and Great Northwest Athletic Conference member
The defense isn't much better having allowed an average of over 480 yards of offense to their opponent. There's no need to spend time analyzing the in's and out's of this game, it will be over by half. What's important for UC Davis is to work on some of the things that have plagued them in previous weeks. Some of those things are penalties, the kicking game (two field goals blocked last week) and a running game that has been up and down. Of course with No. 5 Stephen F. Austin on deck for homecoming, the goal is to come away without any significant injuries. Don't be surprised if Jesse Oliva returns another punt, as he's quickly cementing himself as one of the best to come through Davis. The Aggies can pick their total score and quarterback Matt Engle should be in by the second or third series of the third quarter. The Aggies haven't scored less than 28 points in the first half this season, and it won't change this week. UC Davis 52 Western Oregon 7
Northern Colorado @ Southeastern Louisiana
The Bears take a road trip to
Northern Colorado enters the game in exactly the same position as last week. I've discussed how talented this team, especially the offense is, but am exhausting their key to success. They have to stop control the turnovers, which now stands at 19 with a -7 turnover margin. Last week it was four that bit them hard and kept them out of the game in the final 15 minutes. The other piece of the offense that is such a welcome sign is Andre Wilson, who continues to lead the GWFC in rushing at 117 yard per game. We know how much better Tony Christensen performs when Wilson is churning out yards, but here's some statistical proof. In games when Andre Wilson does not surpass the 100-yard mark the Bears are averaging 7.5 points, and 200 yards of offense. Conversely, when he gets over 100 (his last three games) the numbers are 451 yards of offense, and 26 points. The 26 points could much higher if UNC could cash in some red zone opportunities. Last week, two of the four turnovers came in the red zone. Clearly, Coach O. Kay Dalton knows what his team needs to do to score points. Most fans know that Southeastern Louisiana can't stop the Bears if they are clicking.
Defensively, the Bears have something to build on in an area that hasn't been their strong suit this season. Last week they made some excellent halftime adjustments holding a powerful Aggies offense to just 80 yards of total offense in the half. They also sacked quarterback Jon Grant a season-high five times. Now, they face a Lion team that can put up yards in bunches, especially in the air. Quarterback Martin Hankins has nearly thrown for 2,000 yards this season and 13 touchdowns, averaging 394 yards a game. The big threat at wide out is Felton Huggins who has over 700 yards of offense. They average almost 500 yards per game, so for the third consecutive week the Bears will be challenged by a very powerful offense, but not one with the speed of a UC Davis, or Montana. The Bears defense needs another effort like last week's second half, and must bring the heat from all areas. They have to force Hankins to make some quick decisions and put pressure on the Lions. There is no doubt that the Lions will score some points in this game, probably more than 20. The big key here is if the defense can make a few key stops, or even create some turnovers. They way UNC has played against two very good teams in the past two weeks leads me to believe that SELU won't be able to slow them this week and Vincent Jackson will have another big game. I also expect that Andre Wilson may find close to 200 yards including a couple scores, as that Bears offensive line is doing a great job up front in opening up running lanes. Add in the fact that the Lions allow 443 yards of offense per week, and you've got a good ole fashioned Southwest shootout.
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State
Well while Cal Poly and Southern Utah meet in the game of the week, I suppose this game is good enough to be Game of the Week 1A. The Bison and Jackrabbits meet in a conference matchup, in which the winner will be awarded the newly created Dakota Marker. The "Dakota Marker" is a trophy awarded to the winner, which depicts the previously disputed border that existed between the two states. This trophy is supposed to be the first sign that a big rivalry is building, but it's not entirely clear that a rivalry is brewing between these teams. I read an interesting column by Mike McFeely, who along with Roundtabler Jeff Kolpack, cover the Bison for the Fargo Forum. The entire column addressed the issue of the alleged rivalry and the fact that it really doesn't feel much like a rivalry. The game, and trophy are being hyped quite a bit to create the feelings of a rivalry, but in essence there isn't that pure hatred that North Dakota State fans have for North Dakota. (I know the slogan that all you Bison fans just screamed simultaneously!) Time will tell what this game eventually means in terms of a possible rivalry, but without North Dakota in the mix it's clear a significant piece of the schedule is left void for the Bison. Who knows- if UND chooses to keep NDSU off the schedule, all it takes is a few nasty games to get blood boiling between teams. Chances are that this game will never create the excitement that the UND/NDSU game brings out, but it can't be ignored that this week's game pits two good football teams against each other.
One of those teams, South Dakota State, deserves the most improved award at the halfway point of the season. They continue to impress each week removed from the blowout in Davis. Last week's game in Cal Poly surely opened some eyes, especially those in Fargo. The Jacks' offense knew they'd be in for a long evening, but moved the ball at times against a good defense. Now it's up to Brad Nelson to lead his troops against a tough Bison defense, which is second in the conference in total defense. They've been tough against the run although the stats may not tell you that. The past two games have been against option teams, which skew the stats. The Bison defense is a speedy bunch that will provide challenges to the Jacks, although not nearly as stingy as last weeks Mustang team. North Dakota State will stuff the run at times, but I do think Anthony Watson will have some moderate success because the Jacks have shown the ability to run a bit against good defenses. I also think that Brad Nelson can throw against this defense. This Bison team, although No. 1 against the pass in the GWFC, has only faced one good passing offense, Northern Colorado . Much like South Dakota State's improvement from week one, Northern Colorado first two weeks on offense are simply an aberration. This will be the best passing offense that the Bison have faced to date, since I don't believe that the Bears were anywhere near clicking until the Idaho State game. That will be a challenge for the Bison to stop Nelson, and his group of wideouts. South Dakota State won't be shut out like they were last season.
On the other side of the ball, the Jacks defense has one thing that is very stable, their run defense. They are only allowing 85 yards per game. Even when Davis scored 52 on the Jacks, they shut down the UC Davis run game. North Dakota State enters with their powerful duo and this will be a key matchup to watch, as this NDSU running game is a good one. In the middle, Chris Coauette has been terrific with nine tackles per game. The senior has been doing exactly what he needed to do in the middle of some inexperience, be a great leader. Ryan Schlieman, and Joey Abell are among the conference leader in sacks with a combined 7.5 and they'll be counted upon heavily this weekend. SDSU is also third in total defense in the conference. This group has grown for Coach John Steigelmeier and under Coauette's example. Now they'll need to be on their A game, as they face the most potent offense they've seen since week one. The Bison can throw with Tony Stauss, but it is all set up by the terrific running game, which is averaging almost double what the Jacks get via the ground. The Jacks will commit to stopping Steffes, and Chapman, and then hope Tony Stauss make some mistakes, or force him into some. The Bison are exceptional in third down situations converting nearly 50% of the time, which is another key stat to watch this weekend. It will be the Jacks forcing the Bison into many third down situations, but Tony Stauss will make the key play time after time. His confidence is high and he should be able to pick apart this secondary if his consistent play continues. I think that Nelson and his offense find the end zone and will move the ball with success, but in the end it will be the Bison's team speed that wins this game as the defense makes some big stops down the stretch. North Dakota State won't have the huge day running it, but will get enough out of the ground game to keep things opened up for their QB. This one goes down to the wire- but I like the Bison to win the 91st meeting in overtime. Hey, a rivalry has to start somewhere, right? North Dakota State South Dakota State
Game of the Week
Cal Poly @ Southern Utah
For the second time in as many weeks, the Mustangs are part of the game of the week. The challenges don't stop for the No. 10-ranked team in the country as they visit the Thunderbirds in an attempt to remain undefeated.
Trends: This week's game marks the 18th meeting between the two teams, as Cal Poly holds an 11-6 edge. Cal Poly won the game last season, 33-21, and has won three in a row overall. The game marks the third consecutive homecoming match between the two. Speaking of homecoming, SUU gets one this week, as the Thunderbirds play at home for the first time this season after four road games.
Cal Poly Offense vs. Southern Utah Defense: So Coach Ellerson, who is your starting quarterback in this week's version of musical quarterbacks? The past three games the Mustangs have gone with Cordell Webb to start, only to see John Mende come in to relieve an turnover prone Webb. The Mustangs haven't had terrific play at quarterback this season, but the coaching staff has found a way to use it to their advantage. Coach Ellerson continues not to answer any questions during weekly press conferences about who will start, reserving that announcement until game day. Sure, neither quarterback has lit the world on fire, but without an identified starter the other team can't prepare for the stronger runner Webb, or the stronger passer, Mende. Whoever starts, it doesn't take away the fact that the offense is struggling for the Mustangs. This offense has to find a way to generate some sustained drives, as the Southern Utah defense will eat up the Cal Poly option this weekend. This defense will surely feed off the home crowd, playing at home for the first time this season. The T-Birds did lose CB Spencer Meier and safety Jason Lee to injuries last week, so look for the Mustangs to pick on their replacements. The good news is defensive tackle Major Salanoa played at McNeese after missing the Stephen F. Austin game and the T-Birds Sioni Uipi (DT) returns after missing a couple games. That should only strengthen the SUU run defense against the Cal Poly option. Expect Cal Poly to really struggle moving the ball in the first half, and then it will be up to Coach Ellerson and his staff to make some adjustments. Eventually, the Mustangs have to get Darrell Jones involved even if throwing into double coverage. He's too big a weapon not to involve. The more times they can get their dynamic wide receiver involved, the better.
Southern Utah Offense vs. Cal Poly Defense:
What can I say about the Cal Poly defense that I haven't already said? This group continues to get the job done and lead it's team to victory. Last week the offense turned the ball over five times and the Mustangs stopped the Jacks cold on all but one of those drives, three of which began in Mustang territory. This week's challenge will be somewhat similar in that SUU is balanced like the Jacks. The Jacks may run it a little better, while SUU airs it out a tad more, but overall these teams are similar. Not much will change on the defensive side of the ball for the Mustangs and personally I don't think Cal Poly fans are very concerned about Ryan Filipe, the Thunderbirds running back. The Mustangs will stuff the Filipe and the run. The key truly is slowing Rehrer, and his group of wide receivers. Rehrer has two quality targets in A.J. Smith, and Jerome Eason/Smith is one of the national leaders in receptions with nine per game. Cal Poly is good, we know that, but Rehrer provides a different challenge than this defense has seen.
Key Matchup: Casey Rehrer, QB, Southern Utah vs. Cal Poly Defensive line. Rehrer's improvement over last season has been nothing short of amazing. However, his biggest test comes this week against an aggressive and stingy defense. One of Rehrer's biggest weapons have been his own legs as the senior is averaging over 60 yards a game and nearly four yards a carry to go with his 259 through the air. Cal Poly passed test No. 1 last week disrupting the Jacks' Brad Nelson, and will have another test when UCD's Jon Grant comes to town. This week, though, the focus is on Casey Rehrer. The defensive line has made a living making their way to the quarterback, and causing problems for the opposing offense. All the other passers have been the drop back variety. This week's challenge is to contain the elusive Rehrer, who can make something happen when the pocket collapses. Rehrer averages 320 total yards, and we'll take a look next week to see where he ended up. He has the ability to make big plays, when it may appear the defense has him wrangled in. It's up to the Mustang Defense to not let Rehrer break their back with key runs when the protection breaks down. His feet can be the difference in this game.
X Factor: Special Teams. If it wasn't for Darrell Jones huge 89-yard punt return in the second quarter last week, SDSU and Cal Poly could still be playing. Ryan Filipe, SUU's dangerous returner, also brought one back last week to get the T-Birds blowout of McNeese started. As mentioned earlier the two rank No. 2 and No. 3 nationally in punt returns. This week, defending, or rather kicking away from, the two will be instrumental in the game plans. These teams are bound for a defensive slugfest and the two speedsters could play a vital role. Whichever player can rip off a big return may be huge putting his team in position to score. The offenses can't be counted on to chew up yards, so keep an eye on these two. Last week Jones proved to be the winning margin for Cal Poly, maybe it will be Filipe for Southern Utah this week? These teams aren't likely to push more than 40 points combined so every play has to count. Beyond Jones and Filipe, keep an eye on the kickers, Byungwoo Yoon and Steve Pulver. The youngsters (frosh., and soph. respectively) have not kicked well. Yoon is only 2 for 5, while Pulver is worse at 1 for 7. It may come down to a big kick to win the game. Does either kicker have it in them?
The Roundtable says:
Besides last week's blowout of McNeese State, the Thunderbirds other games were
close including defeating in-state rival Weber State and losses to Sacramento State and
Stephen F. Austin. Cal Poly comes into this road matchup undefeated. The Mustangs
have defeated two Big Sky schools (Idaho State and Montana State) and open GWFC
play against South Dakota State last week. The Mustangs to me seem like the better team
and I think will beat the Thunderbirds even though the game is in Cedar City. I will take
them by four. Cal Poly 21,
Jeff Kolpack: (4-0) "I say Cal Poly is destined to lose a game simply by the odds of teams not going unbeaten. Southern Utah's first home game will provide the incentive. Southern Utah 24, Cal Poly 20."
Mike Mirer: (4-0) "This is a trap game for Cal Poly, which is going to have to sustain
some offense one of these days if it wants to be a national title contender. That day may
even be Saturday. The Mustangs have made it all the way to No. 10 in the nation without
bothering to play much offense, getting away with it because of great defense and special
teams. That has to change this week, if only to allow the defense to catch its breath at
6,000 feet. SUU has proven able to put points of the board and control the clock, but not
against defense as good as the Mustangs. The intangibles make this a hard game to call,
but I'll go with Cal Poly in a defensive struggle. Take the under. Cal Poly 12, SUU 9"
Chris Solari: (4-0) "Against SDSU, the Mustangs' defense and special teams again saved them from an abysmal offensive showing. The turnovers they committed were deep in their own end and very weak, but their defense passed the test and allowed only a late TD. The T-Birds blistered McNeese State, but this is their first conference game. Expect Cal Poly to get in Casey Rehrer's face often and force the reliable QB to throw some uncharacteristic passes. Another defensive TD this week for the Mustangs despite another brutal offensive showing. Make it...Cal Poly 13, Southern Utah 7."
The Bottom Line: You have to be impressed with Coach Wes Meier's job in Cedar City McNeese State Southern Utah 14.
Questions. Comments. Email Chris @ gwfcfootball@hotmail.com
