The Bottom Line - Week 4
By Chris Kelly
It was the marquee game in I-AA last week, and without a doubt lived up to the hype. North Dakota State, who to this point had been rolling through opponents, lost a nail-biter to Montana State 20-17. The Bison had taken a lead with nine minutes to go in the 4th quarter, 17-13, but All-American quarterback Travis Lulay would get one more shot with the ball. And this is the drive stats that occurred: 15 plays, 85 yards, 7:22, and a game winning touchdown. Not only did Lulay produce some big throws en route to the game winning score, but he left his opponents no time on the clock. The Bison's final chance saw them move to the MSU 42, but time ran out as the Bobcat defense, and crowd made that final minute and a half a terribly difficult environment.
Statistically, Lulay came up big with a 22-29 for 219 yards and two scores performance. Both Rick Gatewood and Tramaine Murray were over 70 yards receiving. The Bison were led by Walker who threw for 195 yards, and Kyle Steffes, who rushed for over 115 yards. Craig Dahl and Joe Mays both chipped in nine tackles, while Mays had two for loss.
CK's Take: I have to start by giving a shout out to Matt Dougherty, who covers the national scene for sportsnetwork.com. He came out this week with NDSU ranked as his #1 team in the nation in his most recent poll. He followed those comments up by picking the Bison to lose in Bozeman last weekend. He was right on - in both cases. NDSU looked every bit as good as anyone in the nation until they ran into a tough Bobcat team last weekend. In fact, the Bison were the better team for most of the game, and led in almost every major statistical category. But this win all goes back to All-American quarterback Travis Lulay. As tough of a game as he had last weekend, as good quarterbacks should, he bounced back. He played smart football by not turning the ball over, and making big plays when he needed. As well as the Bison defense had played in containing this group all afternoon, it was that final seven minute backbreaking drive that ended up so impressive.
I absolutely felt the Bison physical play up front would allow them have much more success running the ball against this Bobcat defense. And even though Kyle Steffes went for 117 yards, he worked harder than he's had to in any recent memory. He had a career high 33 carries and averaged under four yards per carry. The Bobcats defense was then able to make enough plays against Steve Walker to keep NDSU off the scoreboard. I've gotta give it to Montana State, who proved a lot in this game, and also kept alive a shot at an at-large playoff birth. As for the Bison, nothing hurt with the loss. I still believe they are one of the top teams in the nation. Their defense still played tremendous football. MSU's first score was set up great field position inside the 30 following an interception. The second score was an extremely athletic play by Tremaine Murray. They really only allowed one big drive that resulted in points. The offense, however, showed some weakness. As Montana State slowed the running attack, for the first time, Steve Walker couldn't shoulder the entire load.
Conference play opened up Saturday in Brookings, South Dakota as Cal Poly continued its strong start with a 24-16 road win over the Jackrabbits. The Mustangs jumped out to a 14-0 lead behind two one-yard sneaks from Anthony Garnett before South Dakota State began to find their rhythm. The Jacks cut the lead to 17-13 before halftime on the strength of a Cory Koenig 33-yard touchdown run, and two Parker Douglass field goals. Anthony Garnett's third touchdown of the game sealed the game for the Mustangs.
Josh Davis' eight grabs for 115 yards, along with Cory Koenig's 126 yards rushing led the Jacks offense. The Mustangs defense registered another three sacks, as national leader Chris Gocong added another to his total. South Dakota State out-gained the Mustangs 344-322.
CK's Take: For the second year in a row SDSU hung right in with a very good Cal Poly team. The Jacks, in fact, led in almost all the important statistics, except for two: the scoreboard, and turnovers. SDSU was able to move the ball maybe a little more so than I expected, but as is typical of a Mustang defense they tighten up inside the twenty. SDSU traveled three times inside the Mustang 20-yard line only to come away with just six points. Cal Poly's defense makes plays when it counts.
This Mustang team seems to be every bit as good as last season, if not better. The defense is as tough as a year ago, and Anthony Garnett, despite two interceptions on Saturday, is playing good football as the leader of the offense. The Mustangs seem to have their eye on that playoff trip they were robbed of last season. If so, they have to survive this brutal four game stretch: North Dakota State, @ Montana, @ UC Davis, Eastern Washington. Don't forget they end the season with an ever improving Idaho State team. If they finish those games 3-2, the playoff committee will have a chance to make right what they did wrong a season ago. As for South Dakota State, you can't help but be impressed with this team. Two weeks in a row they have battled their hearts out but only to come up short against two of the better team in I-AA. If this group can find a little more offensive consistency, they'll surprise someone they're not "expected" to beat down the stretch.
UC Davis 37 Sacramento State 7 Quick Hits: #1 in the nation in receiving yards, (597) #1 in the nation in catches, (47) and both by a long shot. Through 4 games Tony Kays is the clear leader for GWFC offensive player of the year. Is there anyone that can slow Tony Kays? Here are Vincent Jackson's numbers through four games a year ago: 27 grabs, 377 yards, 1 td. If UCD's offensive line plays like they did against Stanford, and Sac St, they have a legitimate shot to run the table.
Portland State 41 Northern Colorado 17 Quick Hits: Portland State deserves to be ranked. Northern Colorado run defense continues to struggle allowing Joe Rubin 356 yards rushing. Even though his numbers weren't good to start, Bear quarterback Nick Hager's injury and two monster turnovers made this game look uglier than it truly was. Still, 356 yards rushing against any opponent is unacceptable. The score, however, is more of a positive reflection of how good PSU is rather than vice versa.
Stephen F Austin 40 Southern Utah 17 Quick Hits: This score was 20-17 in the early 4th quarter, which tells you how competitive SUU was in this game. The T-Birds now have to figure out how to finish a game, as their offense continues to struggle. They are gaining less than three yards per game, and quarterback Wes Marshall had just a 30% completion percentage.
Week 5 Games Cal Poly finds itself in its second conference game in as many weeks, as the schedule turns away from the Big Sky to the Southland conference. The other two teams all in action will face opponents from the Southland. There was supposed to be a third game involving a Southland team, but Southern Utah's trip to McNeese State has been cancelled. Last week, only the Montana State upset of NDSU kept me from a perfect week. Entering the 4th week of play, the count stands at a solid 19-4 (.826)
#10 Cal Poly (3-1) at Northern Colorado (2-2) Cal Poly travels to Greeley, Colo., for the third time as the Northern Colorado Bears meet Cal Poly for just the eighth time. Last season the Mustangs dominated the score beating the Bears 31-0. That win pushed the Cal Poly series lead to 5-2. The game can be seen live at 2pm M.S.T on Fox Sports Rocky Mountain.
The UNC Bears know they will be up against it this week facing a Cal Poly offense that continues to mature week by week. Quarterback Anthony Garnett is leading a balanced Mustang attack against a UNC defense that has proved quite porous against the run this season. The Bears have allowed over 4.5 per carry and 200 yards to their opponents this season, highlighted by the monster effort (357 yards) from Portland State running back Joe Ruben last weekend. Cal Poly enters play averaging 159 yards on the ground, and 160 through the air. After seeing what Western Illinois and Portland State did against this defense, there is no question that Cal Poly will try to exploit the recent struggles by focusing early on the option and making the Bears prove they can stop them. Running back James Noble may not be the caliber of Rubin or the Leathernecks Travis Glasford yet, but he's proved more than capable averaging an impressive 6.9 in his three starts. Expect Garnett, and Noble to go right at the holes in the defense. The Bears have to find a way to tighten things up to keep Cal Poly from running wild. If UNC can't slow the run, Cal Poly can roll up points in a hurry. The Mustang Jason Holmes, Ramses Barden, and Jonah Russell all come into play averaging a staggering 18.0+ yards per catch. They will gash this UNC defense is given the opportunity. Reed Doughty, who leads the conference in tackles, needs to rally his team around him and find a way to slow this Mustang offense. If they can force a couple turnovers much the way they did against Southeastern Louisiana, they will have a shot at the upset.
As well as the Mustangs offense has been coming on, they don't hold a candle to the defense. That's no slight to the offense either, but a major compliment to the havoc this defense wreaks on the opponents. The group from San Luis Obispo is holding opponents to just 100 yards rushing a game and only 300 yards of total offense. Now they may face a green quarterback in red-shirt freshman T.J. Swanson, who replaced an injured (shoulder) Nick Hager last weekend. The youngster has thrown only twenty passes in his college career and only two interceptions. So here is what has to happen: the Bears have to ride their stud back Andre Wilson if they have any sort of shot at winning. Last week, Wilson ripped off 116 yards on just 22 carries, which was his 4th straight 100-yard game this season. More impressively, that was the first 100-yard rusher that Portland State has surrendered all season. Now, Wilson faces his biggest challenge. The senior back is as talented as the Mustangs will face this season. The Bears have to pound the ball with Wilson, and control the clock. They can't afford to let their defense sit on the field, and if Swanson is in long yardage situations, this Mustang defense will pin their ears back and cause all sorts of problems. Wilson will find the room to run tougher as the `Stangs stack the box, but he'll have some success. Still this Cal Poly team looks to be even more talented than a season ago, and is only getting better. Expect some defenders to find the end-zone this weekend. Cal Poly 35 Northern Colorado 7
Southern Utah at McNeese State The cancellation of this game for the second time delays McNeese State's home opener. The destruction caused by Hurricane Rita is the cause of the 3rd cancelled Cowboy game this season. Southern Utah and McNeese State are discussion the possibilities of rescheduling the game, but nothing has been determined at this time.
Nicholls State (1-1) at #13 North Dakota State (3-1) The Colonels travel to Fargo, North Dakota to take on the Bison in the first of two Great West/Southland battles this weekend. The game marks the second meeting between the two teams as NDSU won 24-14 at Guidry Stadium last season. While the Bison prepare to play their fifth game, it will be only the third time that NSU has competed in 2005. The Colonels have had two games cancelled due to the devastating Hurricanes in the Gulf South area. Their opener against Utah Stat was called off due to Katrina, while Rita forced last week's Western Carolina game to be cancelled.
NSU's 2nd year head coach, Jay Thomas brings his troops into Fargo with the top ranked I-AA rushing attack averaging over 400 yards per game. Their two games have come against cupcake D-II Cheyney, but also an impressive 35-31 loss to I-A Indiana in which they out-gained the Hoosiers. Nicholls State is a run mostly, pass if they have to, team. Over 80% percent of the team's yardage has come on the ground, via the triple wishbone option attack. Their base formation is one wide receiver, with two running backs and a fullback. The Colonels have a few different guys who will get carries this weekend as Anthony Harris, Dwayne Jones, Zach Morgan, Broderick Cole, and Joseph Tobias are all guys who will get their chances in the backfield. Cole is the fullback that NSU will pound the ball with, while the other four (all have gained over 100 yards rushing in the first two games) join quarterback Yale Vannoy as the other key components of the Colonel option. This NSU option is very dangerous, especially considering that this team returns four of its offensive lineman from a season ago. But North Dakota State has proven over the past season plus that they are well prepared to handle an option attack. This week will be a challenge, with all the different way the Colonels can hit the Bison. But remember, NDSU faced this offense a year ago, and the Colonels were able to only muster 125 yards on 50 carries. This should be one heck of a matchup with each team's specific strength going head to head. The Bison need to get quarterback Vannoy into third and long situations. Vannoy is not a great passer and if he throws more than 10-12 times this weekend, you can pretty much assure a loss in the Fargodome. Last year Vannoy threw 22 times, which included two key interceptions. This defense played well enough to win a week ago, but fell just short to Montana State. Expect this group to be playing with an edge this weekend after the tough loss. I like NSU to march on their first possession for a score, then the Bison to settle in on defense. Can the Bison contain this group all night, however?
Defensively, the Colonels are led by a strong defensive line which returns three starters from a season ago. Included in that group is defensive tackle Trae Robinson, and defensive end Bryan Paille, who have combined for 14 tackles in their first two games. They'll need the big boys up front to contain this Bison running game that was bottled up a week ago. The Colonels should recognize the Bison big offensive star, Kyle Steffes. Last season Steffes carried 22 times for 141 yards. This NSU team is only allowing 1.3 yards per carry, but that stat is misleading. Even though Indiana is D-I, no one is mistaking them for a power running team any time soon, and holding D-II Cheyney to -14 yards isn't saying much. This week Nicholls, and playmaking linebacker Cory Vavala (11 tackles, 2 fl) will get a major test trying to bottle up this rushing attack. The secondary might be the strongest asset to the defense returning Tommy Lee Brown, and Henry Johnson from a season ago. These guys picked off nine passes last year and will need one or two this week to keep the Bison from controlling the ball and the clock. That secondary will see an unfamiliar face in quarterback Steve Walker. Walker had yet to take over the starting role when these teams met a season ago, and NSU will be surprised at how efficient Walker is with the football. This Bison offense is balanced, but wants to get back to establishing that run something they'll be dedicated to all night to keep the option attack of NSU off the field. This NSU group appears to be an improved team of a season ago, but so are the Bison. I think the option attack may cause some problems for the Bison initially before they start to make some stops. All the Bison need is Vannoy to drop back a few too many times, because he will make some mistakes. Oh, and the Fargo Dome will be rocking which has to be good for at least a touchdown. While NSU may surprise some teams in the Southland this season, they won't do it to the Bison. North Dakota State 28 Nicholls State 17
Game of the Week South Dakota State (2-2) at #16 Texas State (2-1)
Bobcat offense vs. South Dakota State defense. The Bobcats come into play having knocked off a D-II team (Delta State), another Great West member (Southern Utah), while also having dropped a hard fought game to I-A Texas A&M. The opponents are all from different divisions, but the theme is the same: this offense can score. In all three of those games, the Bobcat offense put up 30+ points. It all starts and stop with the wide open attack of quarterback Barrack Nealy, who continues to get better week by week as the leader of this offense. Nealy has his Texas State team averaging better than 441 yards per game, which is good enough for 18th in the nation. Nealy has a quartet of solid receivers to which he can throw the ball in Tyrone Scott, Ronnie Miller, K.R. Carpenter, and Markee White. The four of them have over 30 catches and make up for 185 yards receiving per game. They all have speed, which can turn anything into a big play quickly. The Jacks secondary is a strength with experience at all positions, but they'll be challenged to contain this group. South Dakota State does, however, ranks 20th in nation in total defense, allowing 285 yards per game. The Jacks will have to spend most of the night in a nickel package as Nealy's will constantly be attacking them through the air. Hank McCall, SDSU's standout corner, who also leads the team in tackles, will need some help from his pals in the secondary to try to keep this passing attack in check.
Jackrabbit offense vs. Texas State defense. The Jackrabbits have been missing their offense the past two weeks, having faced two teams that are in the top 21 in total defense. Now they get a Texas State team that has performed well numbers wise (#33 total defense - 316 yds. per game) but how much do we truly know about this group? The 316 yards is only that high because a top 25 caliber D-I offense went for 559 yards against them last week. So they must have been amazingly stout in yardage allowed in their other games? Yes, but consider the competition. They held a D-II team to 205 yards, and then a badly struggling Southern Utah offense to just 183. I think the Jacks offense is better than both and I expect them to put up better numbers, but it has to start and stop with the running game. Anthony Watson put up monster games in his first two outings but has disappeared in the last two. Thankfully backup Cory Koenig has been there to pick up the slack. Both rushers have had 29 carries over the last two games, but Koenig has gone for 150 yards, and a score compared to Watson's 87 yards. Watson needs to return to form, as this duo could make life tough on the Texas State run defense. Both Watson and Koenig are huge keys to the Jackrabbits leaving Texas with a win. They along with a solid offensive line need to control that line of scrimmage, which in turn controls the ball, and the clock. Quarterback Andy Kardoes has to utilize his talent at wide receiver using the short to medium range passing game to move the ball downfield. This Texas State defense, led by linebacker David Simmons, can be thrown against. But to do so Kardoes will have to be efficient, and needs help from his running game.
Key Matchup: SDSU front four vs. Barrack Nealy. The front seven of the Jacks will be up against it this week to contain one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in I-AA. Linebackers Marty Kranz (21 tackles, 2 fl), Billy Ray Kirch (17 tackles, 1 fl), along with defensive lineman Mitch Pontrelli (21 tackles, 2 fl), Hank Goff (2 sacks) and Jason Nobiling (16 tackles, 2 sacks) are the leaders of this group that has to not only get to Nealy early and often, but find a way to contain his ability to beat you with his feet. They'll have to commit someone to spy Nealy, and the front four needs to get pressure without having to bring extra men on blitzes too often. If they can get to him quickly, the Jacks will be in good shape. If he's given any time to throw, he'll post some gaudy stats. Nealy comes into play #7 in passing efficiency and #4 in the nation in total offense. The senior quarterback has rushed for over 225 yards, while also passing for 713 yards. In total he's averaging 314 yards per game, but that doesn't tell half the story. Last week's performance against a very fast Texas A&M defense was something else. I've had the chance to watch Nealy three times now, and he was at his best a week ago. He was in a zone against the best defense he'll face all year keeping his team in a game they probably shouldn't have been in. Nealy completed 76% of his passes and threw for 378 yards. He tossed three touchdowns and added another on a 38-yard scoring run. Nealy is a very good football player, but when he's "on" there's not many teams that can stop him. Somehow the Jacks have to find a way to do so.
X-Factor: Andy Kardoes, QB, South Dakota State. He came in with big shoes to fill in Brad Nelson, and somewhat high expectations. Sure, the expectations were somewhat deserved since the young quarterback had performed admirably in key spots last season. Throw in a strong core of defenders, and major playmaking ability at the skill positions and it was hard not to get excited about the prospect of a successful Jackrabbit season in 2005. Now we sit four games into the season, and Kardoes hasn't been able to deliver that breakthrough performance that most people expected would have come by now. Through four games he's thrown as many picks as touchdowns, and is completing 47% of his passes for 117 yards a game. If you break it down even further, pulling out the two easy wins to start the season, his completion percentage drops to an ugly 36%. Jackrabbit fans know that Andy Kardoes is a better player than the numbers he's put up so far. They also know that this team is about two more plays in each of the last two games away from being 4-0. If South Dakota State has any aspirations of pulling the upset, Kardoes needs his breakout game.
The Roundtable says:
Kent Schmidt, (1-2): "While I think SDSU keeping the past two games close (seven point loss at Montana and eight point loss at home to Cal Poly) has to give the Jacks an edge, I think Texas State proved more in their loss last week against I-A Texas A&M. The Bobcats were in that game throughout and I think it might propel Texas State to a run at the Southland title. I will take Texas State in a semi-blowout.
Texas State 31 South Dakota State 17"
Jeff Kolpack, (1-3): "Until these transition teams get a few years under their belts and reach the full 63 scholarships, or close to it, winning on the road is a tough proposition simply because depth is generally a problem. The Jacks have been tough this year, but will come up short in Texas.
Texas State 24 SDSU 10."
Mike Mirer, (2-2) "The Jackrabbit defense has been very impressive so far, but these two coming weeks will be the biggest tests they face. Texas State is big, fast and does a lot of things very well offensively. Quarterback Barrick Nealy was tremendous two years ago against UC Davis and I can only imagine that he's improved playing in a real system. SDSU's passing game has struggled against scholarship I-AA defenses, and the Jacks are going to have throw ball successfully to score enough points to win.
Texas State 28, SDSU 14"
The Bottom Line: We all remember last season when SDSU traveled to Southern and shocked the I-AA world with an impressive win. That win was just two weeks after a 52-0 thrashing SDSU took to open the season, which is what made the win so improbable. This season the Jacks have been very impressive in their two losses, staying within a play or two of beating two top ranked teams. In order for the Jacks to pull off the upset this weekend, the defense has to deliver another outstanding performance, while Andy Kardoes delivers a mistake free game. I truly believe that Kardoes is ready to have that game that South Dakota State fans have been waiting for this season. However, there's a difference maker in this game and his name is Barrack Nealy. Anyone who's familiar with Texas State knows the hype he's received over the past three seasons. Well it appears this season all the hype is deserved and then some. Nealy is taking this team on his shoulders, and has his eye not only on the Southland conference title, but a playoff birth. South Dakota State will make it interesting all game - but TSU has just a little too much offense. Don't be surprised if this Bobcat team plays deep into the playoffs, that's how good they are in 2005. Texas State 35 South Dakota State 24.
Questions. Comments. Email Chris at gwfcfootball@hotmail.com
Next week: Just an FYI, due to schedules next week's column will not be posted until mid-day Friday.
